Round 1 is in!

The first round of the NFL draft was pretty crazy, with three trades that netted 3 QBs way before anyone thought they'd go. The Lions, like last year, were boringly predictable. That's actually a good thing. A GM will often want to appear like the smartest guy in the room and grab a risky pick, or someone off the board. Sometimes that works out, but usually the best player to take is pretty obvious. Last year, the obvious pick was the tackle out of OSU, Taylor Decker. That has worked out pretty well so far.

Based on the nature of the draft, you tend to see a highly rated prospect falling for some reason and hope he's still there when your team picks. Johnathan Allen dropped some, but I had no expectation that he'd still be available when the Lions picked at 21, and sure enough, Allen went off the board at #17. But Reuben Foster, the LB out of Alabama, was in a free fall due to some character concerns at the Combine. Linebacker was probably the Lions' most dire need... did they make the right choice?

               

Jarrad Davis, LB Florida                                     Reuben Foster, LB Alabama
6'1", 238 lbs, 4.61 40-yd dash                                     6'0", 229 lbs, 4.64 40-yd dash
2016: 9 gm, 60 tkl, 6 TFL, 2 sacks, 4 PD                 2016: 15 gm, 115 tkl, 13 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 PD

2015: 14 gm, 94 tkl, 11 TFL, 3.5 sacks,                     2015: 15 gm, 73 tkl, 8 TFL, 1 sack, 7 PD
1 INT, 4 PD, 1 FF

Davis - Pros: So, right off you should notice that Davis only played in 9 games last season, and we'll get to that. He can tackle, he can get to the QB, he's fast, and he's not bad in coverage. Everyone loves his character and he's a leader on the defense, which should not be understated. And he can either play either the MIKE (middle LB) or WILL (weakside LB) positions in the Lions' defense.
Foster - Pros: He won the Bednarik Award for best LB in college football, so Foster is pretty good. He's fast, he's a big hitter, and he's got that Alabama pedigree. He's also great in coverage, which the Lions really need at the LB position.

Davis - Cons: The injuries. Davis missed the end of his 2014 season with an MCL tear, and then this past year he missed several games and then tried to play through an ankle injury. Ankle sprains can become a chronic issue, but they aren't as catastrophic to a player's career as a knee injury can be. Still, Davis has missed a lot of games over the past 3 years. Football-wise, he's not terrific in coverage, but it's not a huge area of concern.
Foster - Cons: The issue with Foster, and the reason he wasn't taken in the top 15 or so, was character concerns. He tested positive for a "diluted sample" during his drug test, which could just be over-hydrating, or it could be a cause for concern. The problem is that he's now on level 1 of the NFL's drug discipline, meaning another positive test would be a 4-game suspension. He also had a "heated exchange" with hospital staff at the Combine, causing him to get kicked out. Aside from the character concerns, Foster has had some stinger issues due to poor tackling technique, and he had rotator cuff surgery this offseason.

The Verdict: Reuben Foster is probably maybe the better football player. Possibly. But he has a tendency to just drop his shoulder and go for the big hit instead of wrapping up. He's a really good player, but he's not flawless, and the stuff at the combine raised some eyebrows. I'd prefer the Lions had drafted him, because I think he's a bit better than Jarrad Davis, but...

Jarrad Davis is really good. He might actually be a better fit for the Lions than Foster, given that he projects as a middle linebacker (the Lions' current MLB, Tahir Whitehead, graded out as the 2nd-worst starting LB in football by PFF) and has leadership qualities that Foster does not possess. He didn't grade out as quite the coverage guy that Foster is, but Davis made some pretty nice plays in downfield coverage. If he can find the ball in the air like that on a consistent basis, he's going to be just fine in coverage.

***

Moving on, the Lions have the 53rd and 85th picks today, which correspond to the 21st pick in the 3rd & 4th rounds, respectively. They still have needs on defense - a DE who can get to the QB, a CB who can cover, S, and DT. They also have needs on offense - RB, a downfield threat at WR, and possibly TE as well. So, who's out there?
2nd - Joe Mixon - RB, Oklahoma: This is the name a lot of fans are saying. In fact, many wanted us to take him in the first round. By all accounts, he's the best RB in the entire draft. He can split out as a receiver (538 receiving yards) or do damage on the ground (1,274 yds rushing). He's a perfect RB for this era, except for his anger issues, which might end up getting him suspended for life at some point.

2nd - Malik McDowell - DT, Michigan State: He didn't have the greatest year, but much of that can be attributed to how poorly MSU played. He was playing great until the Ls started to stack up, and then he apparently lost interest and his play declined. That doesn't bode well if that attitude continues, but if you can fix it, he might be the best DT in the draft.
2nd - Jourdan Lewis - CB, Michigan: He doesn't have elite size or speed, but he's one of the best coverage corners in the draft. He does have a pending domestic issue with his girlfriend that hasn't been resolved yet, which bears watching.
2nd - Obi Meliwonfu - S, UConn: Obi is the most physically imposing safety I've ever seen. He's HUGE for the position at 6'4", 224 lbs, and tremendously gifted athletically (4.40 40-yd dash, 44" vertical). He's not as good in coverage as you might like, but the Lions can afford to develop him for a year. I think he can play.
2nd/3rd - DeMarcus Walker - DE, Florida State: It would be a stretch to expect him to be waiting for the Lions to pick him up with the 85th pick, but it's a big of an over reach to grab him with the 53rd pick. Walker had some gaudy sack totals, but he doesn't possess elite speed off the edge. He might be more of a 3-4 DE, which is why I'd hesitate to take him in round 2 but not round 3.
3rd - Samaje Perine - RB, Oklahoma State: If the Lions go defense again in round 2, they could get a nice short-yardage back in Perine in round 3, if he's there. Sam Perine doesn't have much top end speed, but he's quick enough between the tackles, and man does he move the pile. Check the tape.

3rd - Jordan Leggett - TE, Clemson: Leggett was one of the top TEs in college football last year. He's big and athletic, and would be a nice target for Stafford, but he needs work in both the receiving and blocking facets of the game.

3rd - Ahkello Witherspoon - CB, Colorado: He's got elite size and near-elite speed, but the production isn't quite there. At least not with tackles and INTs. His 19 knockdowns is a massively impressive stat, but he needs to add muscle and be a more willing tackler. By round 3 though, you aren't getting a complete product.

We'll see what direction Bob Quinn takes, but the Lions should end up with 1 or 2 more starters by the end of the night.

Mocks Galore!

The NFL Draft is just over a couple of weeks away, and there are a lot of mock drafts out there. A LOT. So, I thought I'd do a Lions-centric mock draft roundup! Yay!

First, NFL.com has a number of different guys that do mocks. The best is Mike Mayock, but he doesn't do his until the day of or the day before the draft. The latest is Bucky Brooks, who mocked Florida LB Jarrad Davis to the Lions on April 11th. 

On the other hand, Daniel Jeremiah mocked yet another non-blocking TE (Miami's David Njoku) with less than great hands on 4/4. This would be my nightmare scenario. Willis is an OLB who would probably convert to DE in our system, and Harris is a perfect fit. I'd be fine with either of them.

CBS Sports has a TON of mocks, so let's get cracking.

Both Rob Rang and Ryan Wilson mocked Temple OLB Haason Reddick to Detroit, so we'll look at him first. He's an incredible athlete, although a bit undersized. I think he played more of a 3-4 pass rushing OLB at Temple, but he can cover as well and his frame isn't really big enough to do that on an NFL level. He'd be better suited to run as an OLB in Detroit's 4-3 system. Not an ideal fit, but not bad either.

Dan Brugler mocked us TJ Watt and I LOVE this pick. Watt is the younger brother of current NFL great JJ Watt, who is easily the best defensive player in the league. TJ is no slouch either, having notched 11.5 sacks, a pick-6, and wreaked havoc last season. He'd play DE in our system and be GOOD at it.

Pete Prisco picked Charles Harris, who I mentioned before but is worth going into further. He's close to ideal size. Not a terrific athlete, but not bad either, and his production last year was pretty good. I've brought him up before as a possibility for the Lions.

I'm not a fan of Will Brinson's Jabrill Peppers pick, and I'll tell you why. Peppers isn't great in coverage. He's more like an LB, but he would need to add 30 lbs of muscle, and that's not happening. He'd make an instant impact in the return game and could be a multi-purpose back out of the backfield on offense, but that's not a player I'm taking in round 1. I'm much more a fan of Jared Dubin's Taco Charlton pick. Charlton is a DE, a bigtime need, and a good one. I didn't include him in my Draft preview earlier because he was slotted a lot higher than he is now. The draft is weird this way, that a guy can move up & down in a couple of months without anything actually happening. Anyway, Taco possesses ideal size for a DE and had great production last season. Get him.

The Ringer mocked my ideal pick, or near enough. I'd pretty much be in favor of any defensive player, if he's a fit. But I've had my eye on Marlon Humphrey for a while.

Humphrey has ideal size and speed for an NFL CB. He hits RBs and has solid coverage skills. He's shown susceptibility to getting beaten on the long ball, so it might be better to run more zone with him, or help him out with a safety over the top if he's covering a burner. I'm not crazy about the long-ball issues, but you can't get a perfect CB with the 21st pick. He's as close as we're gonna get. Unless one of the big names drops to us for some weird reason, Humphrey is at the top of my list.

SI's Chris Burke also likes Haason Reddick for the Lions, which makes 3 mock drafters on 2 different sites and leads me to believe that maybe they know something the rest of us don't. Fox Sports picked Humphrey for us, which obviously I like. At this point we're getting a lot of repeats, so I'll move on to something we haven't heard before.

Todd McShay does so many mocks that he could legitimately have mocked half the players in the first round to a particular team. He and Kiper did a back & forth mock in which Kiper tabbed Charles Harris to the Lions and Kiper picked Takkarist McKinley. McKinley and Harris are similar in a lot of ways. Both are borderline 3-4 OLB/4-3 DEs. Both had pretty good numbers last year, with McKinley getting 18 TFL and 10 sacks, Harris getting 12 TFL and 9 sacks. But McKinley grades out as a slightly better athlete (4.59 40-yd dash to Harris' 4.82), and McKinley had SLIGHTLY better numbers last year. Some scouts think Harris' drop in production from 18.5 TFL his sophomore year to 12 last year was due to scheme & coaching. Personally, I like Harris a little better. He's a year younger, and his production is a little more convincing - 2 yrs of quality production as a soph & junior vs. McKinley's 1 yr as a senior. But McKinley wouldn't be a horrible pick.

A semi-useful article from SB Nation did a poll of the existing mocks and made pie charts for each team and which players are being mocked to them. Essentially, it's a compilation of all the mocks out there.

I say "semi-useful" because the largest section of the pie is the "Others" category, which doesn't help a whole lot. But going by the names listed, DE Taco Charlton comes in 1st with 18.3% of the mocks. DE Charles Harris is 2nd with 16.9%, and Takkarist McKinley is 3rd with 9.9%. LBs Haason Reddick & TJ Watt, TE David Njoku, and DE Derek Barnett (who most mocks have going in the top 10-15 picks).

For what it's worth, Fox Sports had the Lions taking Michigan DT Chris Wormley in the 2nd round, and McShay had them taking Chris Goodwin, a WR from Penn State in the 2nd, and Bucky Hodges, a TE from Va Tech in the 3rd. The McShay picks aren't based on what he thinks the Lions are likely to do, but on what HE would do if McShay were the GM. Which is good because I can't imagine them taking 2 offensive players with their first 3 picks. McShay, for all his knowledge and stuff, seems to be the kind of guy who just throws stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

Anyway, of the players being mocked to the Lions, here are my preferences:

The "I'm ecstatic this guy dropped to us" Tier -
1. Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee (5.6% in mocks, per SB Nation). I consider this a long shot, but I previewed him a couple of months ago as a possibility. He had 3 straight years of great production in the SEC, averaging 17.3 TFL and 10.7 sacks per season. He was great last year, but even as a freshman he was pretty good.

The "I'm not ecstatic but still pretty thrilled" Tier -
2. Taco Charlton, DE Michigan (18.3%). Charlton doesn't have the upside and isn't as finished a product as Barnett, but he's physically much more aligned with what the Lions look for in a DE - tall and long-limbed.
3. Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama (?%). At least 2 websites mocked him to the Lions (The Ringer and Fox Sports), but Humphrey has been sliding down a lot of the draft boards due to his susceptibility to the big play. That is worrisome, but I think correctable. The Lions could play him in the slot right away, and in zone packages, and as he corrects his weaknesses with the long ball, he'll move to the other corner spot opposite Slay.
4. Charles Harris, DE Missouri (16.9%). Sort of a lesser version of Barnett. Solid, not great, but I'd be happy with him.

The "I'd rather have one of the other guys, but this guy will do" Tier - 5. TJ Watt, DE Wisconsin (5.6%). I think Watt has the frame to pack on the muscle and convert from a college OLB to an NFL DE. He reminds me a bit of Clay Matthews - good pedigree, good stats at a good football school, and probably will outplay his draft position.
6. Haason Reddick, LB Temple (5.6%). Reddick isn't an ideal fit for the Lions' defensive scheme, and that's the main problem here. He's a solid athlete, but he'll need to pack on some muscle to play in the NFL, and the Lions would likely have him play as an OLB instead of trying to convert him to DE. He looks adequate in coverage, so I expect them to have more luck with him than they did with Kyle Van Noy.
7. Takkarist McKinley, DE UCLA (9.9%). McShay likes him for the Lions, and apparently a few others do as well. I'm not as sold on him as a 4-3 DE. But, he's got a good motor and is a pretty good athlete.
8. Jarrad Davis, LB Florida (?%). He had pretty solid production his JR year, and played pretty well, considering his injuries, his SR year. Decent athlete, needs to work on a few things like coverage and recognition.
9. Jordan Willis, DE Kansas State (?%). He's another guy who's OLB-sized who will need to gain weight to convert. I'm even less convinced by him than I am by McKinley, and unlike McKinley, I don't think he'd start in year 1.

The "I would be pretty disappointed by this pick" Tier - 10. Jabrill Peppers, SS Michigan (?%). I loved Peppers as a Michigan fan, but I also was frustrated by him. I didn't think he was used properly on offense, and on defense he was basically a linebacker in a defensive back's body. Great return guy though. Anyway, he's not great in coverage, so you can't put him at safety. I think his ideal role in the NFL is as an all-purpose back/kick returner, but there isn't enough film on him as a RB (Michigan made the huge mistake of lining him up as a wildcat QB instead) to justify a 1st round pick.

The "equivalent of the Ebron pick face-palm" Tier -
11. David Njoku, TE Miami (5.6%). It's disconcerting how many mocks have the Lions taking Njoku. Personal story time - I watched the 2014 NFL Draft at the TAP Room in the MGM Detroit. At the time, the Lions had a lot of defensive needs, needs on the OL, and at RB. OT Taylor Lewan was in play, as well as WR Odell Beckham Jr, and DT Aaron Donald. The guy I had been hoping for was CB Justin Gilbert, who went two picks earlier (thank god, as it turns out). Instead, the Lions opted to get themselves a "matchup nightmare" in Ebron, a TE who looked great in the receiving game, except for some drops, and wasn't a very good blocker. Upon hearing the Lions call his name with the 10th pick (THE 10th OVERALL PICK! ON A TIGHT END???), I banged my head against the bar in frustration.

Now, look at the scouting of Ebron and compare it to what they say about Njoku. Tall, good athlete, great catch radius, has some issues with drops, needs to add bulk and get better at blocking. They could be the same guy. The only thing that would be worse about the Njoku pick is the fact that they'd be duplicating the Ebron mistake of 3 years ago WHILE EBRON IS STILL ON THE TEAM. I give Bob Quinn a lot more credit than that, but apparently a number of mock drafters either don't know the recent history, or they're lumping Quinn in with the hapless Lions GMs of the past.

Unless something crazy happens (like what happened with Laremy Tunsil last year) and a guy like Fournette or one of the top 2 WRs drops in our lap, I'm not going to be a fan of taking any offensive player in round 1 this year. OJ Howard, the TE from Alabama, is really good and would probably be a good option if he dropped as well, but I can't get over the TE thing. We took Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th pick in 2009, and some of us were shaking our heads over taking a TE more known for his blocking so high. Then the Ebron pick happened. Taking another TE in the first round would be like back in the '80s and early '90s when the Jets would blow their top picks on FBs and TEs...

What to do with the Pistons

I've waffled a bit on what to do with this team. I always thought Ish Smith was the wrong guy to back up Reggie (due to Ish's lack of shooting), and that's been validated through the course of the season. But when Reggie went down, I figured it would just be a matter of an awful month or 2 and then we'd get back to the playoffs. When the Pistons struggled after Reggie returned, Reggie being clearly the culprit, and it was pretty evident that there was a lot of disunity on the team, I was all for getting rid of RJ and possibly Drummond as well. Then I read a Zach Lowe piece on the Pistons' struggles, which actually gave me some hope, despite its dismal tone. I had been talked off the ledge.

February was a pretty good month for the Pistons. They went 8-4 in the month, with impressive wins over Toronto, Charlotte, and Portland. The hot streak continued into March, the highlight being a win over Cleveland, and they finally reached .500 after beating the Knicks. Then the wheels fell off. Pathetic loss after pathetic loss, SVG finally shut Reggie Jackson down for the season, something Van Gundy freely admitted he should've done earlier. Almost exactly a month ago, the Pistons were riding high and looking pretty good to make the playoffs as a 6 or 7 seed. Now they're in the lottery, and we're left dealing with the "what now?" question.

So, WHAT NOW?

1. SVG needs to step down as Head Coach.
It became clear to me that Van Gundy can't make the right decisions for the team as a GM if he's coaching them at the same time. He's too competitive, he wants to win NOW, and he doesn't always make the right call in the heat of the moment. He also seems to struggle to reach some of his players. I'd like to see SVG step down and hire a young hotshot out of the college ranks or one of the top assistants in the league. It's time to give someone else a shot.

2. Drummond and Reggie need to GO.
Andre Drummond is not the future of this franchise, unfortunately. He hasn't developed a post game, a FT shot, or anything resembling rim protection in his 5 years with the team. His motor runs hot & cold, and lately it's been more cold. Oh, and he can't play during the last 5 min of any close game because he's too big of a liability at the charity stripe. Drummond is getting paid WAY too much for this. Reggie has a chance of earning his contract, but I'm not optimistic. He relies too much on athleticism for a guy with asthma and tendonitis of the knee. If it weren't for the health concerns, I'd say stick with him and hope for the best, but... these two players and their contracts will prove to be the albatross around the neck of this franchise if they aren't shipped out and SOON.

3. Build around some of the youngsters and tinker.
I think the best move is to make this KCP's team. He's been very inconsistent as a scorer. I think he's at the stage in his career where you can put some low-level pressure on him. Can he be The MAN for a team not trying to make the playoffs for a couple of years? I think so, and I think the effort in trying to fill that role will be great for his game. Give Stanley Johnson freedom to work in the starting SF role, maybe. Henry Ellenson needs some reps, as will whoever we draft this summer. So cut lose some of the dead weight and let the young guys play. Let the new coach figure some things out without the pressure of playoff expectations.

4. Draftpickdraftpicksdraftpicks.
Whenever we make a trade, we need to be getting a 1st round pick in the mix. This year, next year, 3 years in the future... The Pistons need to draft The Next Big Thing. We've tried rebuilding several different ways without doing a total tear-down, and none of them have worked. We need to cut the fat, get picks, and work on the young talent we have. KCP is a guy I'd like to keep around, since 2-way players of his caliber don't grow on trees. But there are no "sacred cows", as Joe D once said, and if KCP can bring us a top 3 pick in trade, do it.

I'm not advocating for a full-Hinkie. Do a full tear-down, tank or whatever you want to call it for a year. Then in the summer of 2018, start rebuilding.

Right now the Pistons are in a horrible no-man's land. They have a lot of salary wrapped up in players that you can't build around. I'm afraid the ceiling for this team is bottom-tier playoff team. SVG needs to hit the reset button and go for the pick. If he doesn't, Detroit basketball is going to be mired in many more years of mediocrity.