Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Lions 2016 Review Pt 2 - Defense


The Lions defense this past season was, in a word, embarrassing. We were ranked 30th out of the 32 NFL defenses by Pro Football Focus, and that feels about right. They were terrible on all levels. They allowed opposing QBs to complete passes at a rate of 73%, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt (for reference, no starting QB averaged better than 71.6% completions for the season). In terms of rushing defense, Detroit was in the middle of the pack, allowing 106 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry, but when it comes to short yardage situations...

Defensive line - it was bad. BAD. I was mentioning short yardage situations? Football Outsiders rates defensive lines on a number of factors. When it comes to Power Success - that is, how easy it was for opponents to rush for a 1st down or TD in short yardage situations - the Lions ranked 31st. They also rate a lines ability to stuff a play at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Lions ranked 29th there. We were 25th in adjusted sack rate, and I'm not sure where the Lions would've fallen if they factored in QB pressures, but it would've been LOW. We didn't stop the run and we didn't rush the passer.
Ziggy Ansah had a bad year, and was either out or playing with a nagging leg injury. He started to come on in the last few games and look like the guy we had last year, so I'm not worried about him. Kerry Hyder continued his preseason dominance, and led the team in sacks (in case you didn't know...). I was surprised to find early on in the season that we basically didn't have a pass rush if he wasn't on the field. A'Shawn Robinson had a very good rookie showing, and I think he'll be a top DT in a couple of years. Everybody else has serious concerns.

Ngata is all but done. He's still better than the rest of our DTs, but he gets pushed off the ball in a way that he never did, and he just doesn't make plays on a regular basis. A'Shawn Robinson is a work in progress, and all the other DTs are playing at replacement level or worse. Devin Taylor is DONE, so the Lions really need to get another pass rushing DE or 2. That means DRAFT (I am NOT in the "back the truck up for JPP" camp). They should cover this position in rounds 1 or 2.



Linebacker might be a position of need higher than DE. DeAndre Levy missed most of the season with an undisclosed injury, and he's made public comments that have made me wonder if he's done with football. His career timeline goes like this: Got drafted by the Lions in 2009, became one of the NFL's best kept secrets by 2011, broke out in 2013 with 6 INTs & 85 tackles, got snubbed for the Pro Bowl in 2015 with 121 tackles, signed a big contract extension in 2016, promptly got injured, and since has played in 6 out of a possible 33 games and recorded a total of 16 tackles... He's signed through the end of 2019 and there's no way he's just going to retire, since the Lions owe him roughly $26M on the remainder of his contract. If he's just perpetually injured, the Lions are going to have to cut their losses. It's a shame, because Levy was one of the players that made the Lions' defense really special, back when they were good.

Unfortunately, the news doesn't get better. Tahir Whitehead was a disaster this season, as PFF's bottom-ranked starting LB. He couldn't cover, and he routinely got caught in the wash on running plays. Some of that is on the DTs for getting pushed off the ball, but he also let himself get blocked A LOT. Josh Bynes has been a decent band-aid, so I expect the Lions will re-up with him on another 1- or 2-year deal, but more has to be done. Levy cannot be counted on to even play at all, so I expect Quinn to go after a FA like Dont'a Hightower AND address the position in the draft, hopefully by the end of round 3.


Cornerback has been a perpetual need for the Lions. I can remember 1 season when we had 2 decent CBs, and the next year we let one of the guys sign somewhere else. Martin Mayhew and Millen were allergic to drafting defensive backs. Well, this year was no exception. Slay was decent, but definitely a step back from last year. Nobody else on the roster deserves to line up as anything higher than a nickle or dime corner. Lawson, Bademosi, Crezdon Butler, and whoever else lined up on the other side of Slay was in over their heads. Fortunately, there are a number of decent corners that should be available in FA and this is a really good draft for corners. I'd like to see the Lions use a 1st or 2nd rd pick on this position.

Safety was easily our best position, defensively. But both starting guys are going into a contract year, and I expect Tavon Wilson to take a step back next year. Miles Killebrew look very good in special teams and when he got a chance to play with the starting D, so the Lions might look to work him in more, but they'll need to bolster this position SOON. A wise move would be to draft a safety in the 2017 draft and groom him to start in 2018, but the Lions have too many needs elsewhere to do this unless a value pick falls to them.

I thought Bob Quinn did an ok job in getting cheap, decent players to fill in. He had a solid 2016 draft (as far as we can tell). This will be an interesting offseason. We're coming off of a playoff appearance, but we have a ton of holes to fill and a decent amount of cap space. Will he get greedy and try to shortcut the process, or will he go the Patriot way by cutting players when they cost more than they can produce anymore, signing overlooked players that turn out pretty good, and drafting smart?

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