Their best receiver retired, their best RB is basically out for the season, their 2 next best RBs have missed the past 3-4 games, their best LB has barely played, their best DT has missed about 4 weeks, their best DE has missed at least 3 weeks, and their best CB is out. I have no idea how they can show up and beat a legitimate team like Washington or Philly.
Oh wait. I do. It's Matt Stafford (yes, THAT Matt Stafford).
By many measures, Stafford is having a better season than he did in 2011, when he threw for over 5,038 yards and 401 TDs. Up until now, that 2011 campaign has been his high watermark. Well, this year his completion %, yards per attempt, QBR, and passer rating are all higher. He's already rushed for more yards than he did in 2011, adding a dynamic to his game that wasn't there before. All 4 of the Lions' wins have been due to scoring drives that ended with less than 2 minutes left in the game. I'd like to underscore the fact that the Lions have a WEAK team this year, as opposed to the 2011 squad, which had prime Calvin Johnson, 50% of a healthy Jahvid Best, a pretty good line, receiving corps, and a great defense. It was basically the opposite of this season, personnel-wise.
There is some debate whether Stafford is solely responsible for this, or whether he's entirely OC Jim Bob Cooter's creation. NFL Network Analyst (and sideline guy for the Lions games that have been on Fox) Pete Schrager made the case for Stafford as a top QB in the league. I don't know about all that. Stafford's definitely top 10, maybe even top 5 guy, but Schrager was saying #1... Anyway, there's no doubt that Stafford is buying into whatever Jim Bob is selling, and it's working. He's finally managed to make his receivers better, something that was a long criticism of his play. He doesn't fold into sacks like he used to, opting to run it more often when the pocket collapses. He seems pretty comfortable in those late game situations and seems to be running a pretty tight ship.
It's helped that the O-line play has improved the past couple of weeks. Taylor Decker played his best game as a pro vs. Washington, and the line as a whole seems to be gelling now. They look especially good in space on screens. Ebron, Riddick, Ngata, and Washington all seem to be ready to go vs. Houston this week, although Levy and Slay are still out. Stafford is going to need a little more help this week. Houston is another legit team, and the Lions will have to show up if they're to have a chance.
***
So, if the Lions are getting all this stellar play from Stafford, why didn't they beat the pathetic Bears (1-6) or the merely bad Titans (3-4)? Well, as I've pointed out already, Stafford isn't getting a lot of help (especially from his defense), and this results in a phenomenon that virtually cancels out the Super Stafford effect.
Opposing QBs are MURDERING the Lions.
Let's look at this week by week. What have opposing QBs done to the Lions' D that they haven't done vs. the rest of their schedule to date?
Week 1 - Andrew Luck
vs. Lions: 31-47, 385 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 88.4 QBR, 119.5 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 25-38, 282 yds, 1.7 TD, 0.7 INT, 73.3 QBR*, 98.3 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Luck is a pretty good QB so his numbers vs. the rest of the league are still pretty good. But he did get a boost playing the Leos.
Week 2 - Marcus Mariota
vs. Lions: 25-33, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 67.4 QBR, 102.8 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 19-32, 228 yds, 1.7 TD, 0.8 INT, 55.0 QBR*, 89.5 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Mariota is less good. He didn't get a ton of yards against us, but he was pretty effective, completing roughly 76% of his passes.
Week 3 - Aaron Rodgers
vs. Lions: 15-24, 205 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 99.1 QBR, 129.3 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 27-43, 258 yds, 1.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 73.2 QBR*, 91.7 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
We all know who Rodgers is, but he's on a down year. Additionally, he didn't have to air it out too often vs. Detroit (hence the low number off attempts and yards). But looking past the raw numbers, this was probably Rodgers' best game of the year. 4 TDs, and a near-max QBR and passer rating.
Week 4 - Brian Hoyer
vs. Lions: 28-36, 302 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 89.3 QBR, 120.1 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 21-33, 229 yds, 0.6 TD, 0 INT, 65.2 QBR*, 98.0 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Hoyer was in the middle of a hot streak when the Lions caught him, but they're also partially responsible for said hot streak. His averages kind of lie, since two of his games were limited - week 1 was as a replacement for Cutler, and then he got injured in the 2nd quarter. In actuality, Hoyer's stats vs. the Lions are pretty representative of what he did to everyone else, except that it's Hoyer... Hoyer is a game manager at best. Anyway, the completion % vs. the Lions still stands out a bit.
Week 5 - Carson Wentz
vs. Lions: 25-33, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 58.9 QBR, 102.8 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 19-30, 217 yds, 1.2 TD, 0.4 INT, 50.8 QBR*, 92.7 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
The Lions DID get the first pick on Wentz in his NFL career, which happened to clinch the game, but he was still remarkably effective. Again, look at the COMP%, QBR, and Rtg.
Week 6 - Case Keenum
vs. Lions: 27-32, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 87.3 QBR, 126.7 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 20-34, 231 yds, 0.8 TD, 1.5 INT, 41.9 QBR*, 77.5 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Case Keenum is Patient Zero in this analysis. The dude couldn't miss, he got gobs of yards, found the end zone thrice, and vs. the rest of the league he played at replacement level. I still can't fathom how the Lions managed to win that game. Oh yeah, Stafford. And they picked Keenum right at the end.
Week 7 - Kirk Cousins
vs. Lions: 30-39, 301 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 82.6 QBR, 106.9 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 25-38, 283 yds, 1.5 TD, 1 INT, 61.0 QBR*, 92.3 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Cousins is better than a replacement-level guy, but not by a lot. He's a solid NFL starter, nothing special. Except when he faced the Lions.
The Lions are near the bottom of the league in passing defense (currently the bottom-ranked defense on Football Outsiders). They don't pressure the QB much, outside of Slay (currently injured) they can't cover anybody, and their LBs are especially terrible in coverage. They get killed by opposing TEs as well, although I'm not going to take the time to break that down. They just dumped LB Kyle Van Noy, a 2nd round Mayhew pick that you could smell the failure on a mile away. It wasn't that he didn't look like a good player, he looked ok. But the Lions' defensive scheme didn't match his skill set (I'd like to add that Mayhew TRADED UP to take Van Noy, a player who obviously didn't fit). He's a pass rushing OLB, and the Lions tried to put him in coverage. He stunk at it. So, Quinn swung a trade that sent him to New England (happy trails & good luck) for a couple of LATE picks. They signed Josh Bynes to take his place in the lineup, a guy I was perfectly happy with last year.
I'm hoping the switch to Bynes boosts our D. With Ngata coming back it should already be a little better, although Slay's absence hurts. Houston's QB Osweiler is yet another middlin' guy who will probably carve us up, but what we really need to worry about is their run game. Lamar Miller has been no joke. The Lions will need to get out to a lead and put Houston in a position where they have to throw it. Osweiler threw it more than 40 times in each of their losses, and under 40 in all 4 of their wins.
Currently the line on this game is Houston -2.5. I think they're probably going to win by 3, so that line is spot on. The Lions could pull this out, but even going into the bye at 4-4 would be an accomplishment, what with all the injuries they've had. A 5-3 record, certainly possible, and would give them a window into the playoffs. I think going 6-2 in their second half would be very difficult, unless they get Levy and Slay back in time for week 10.
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