Their best receiver retired, their best RB is basically out for the season, their 2 next best RBs have missed the past 3-4 games, their best LB has barely played, their best DT has missed about 4 weeks, their best DE has missed at least 3 weeks, and their best CB is out. I have no idea how they can show up and beat a legitimate team like Washington or Philly.
Oh wait. I do. It's Matt Stafford (yes, THAT Matt Stafford).
By many measures, Stafford is having a better season than he did in 2011, when he threw for over 5,038 yards and 401 TDs. Up until now, that 2011 campaign has been his high watermark. Well, this year his completion %, yards per attempt, QBR, and passer rating are all higher. He's already rushed for more yards than he did in 2011, adding a dynamic to his game that wasn't there before. All 4 of the Lions' wins have been due to scoring drives that ended with less than 2 minutes left in the game. I'd like to underscore the fact that the Lions have a WEAK team this year, as opposed to the 2011 squad, which had prime Calvin Johnson, 50% of a healthy Jahvid Best, a pretty good line, receiving corps, and a great defense. It was basically the opposite of this season, personnel-wise.
There is some debate whether Stafford is solely responsible for this, or whether he's entirely OC Jim Bob Cooter's creation. NFL Network Analyst (and sideline guy for the Lions games that have been on Fox) Pete Schrager made the case for Stafford as a top QB in the league. I don't know about all that. Stafford's definitely top 10, maybe even top 5 guy, but Schrager was saying #1... Anyway, there's no doubt that Stafford is buying into whatever Jim Bob is selling, and it's working. He's finally managed to make his receivers better, something that was a long criticism of his play. He doesn't fold into sacks like he used to, opting to run it more often when the pocket collapses. He seems pretty comfortable in those late game situations and seems to be running a pretty tight ship.
It's helped that the O-line play has improved the past couple of weeks. Taylor Decker played his best game as a pro vs. Washington, and the line as a whole seems to be gelling now. They look especially good in space on screens. Ebron, Riddick, Ngata, and Washington all seem to be ready to go vs. Houston this week, although Levy and Slay are still out. Stafford is going to need a little more help this week. Houston is another legit team, and the Lions will have to show up if they're to have a chance.
***
So, if the Lions are getting all this stellar play from Stafford, why didn't they beat the pathetic Bears (1-6) or the merely bad Titans (3-4)? Well, as I've pointed out already, Stafford isn't getting a lot of help (especially from his defense), and this results in a phenomenon that virtually cancels out the Super Stafford effect.
Opposing QBs are MURDERING the Lions.
Let's look at this week by week. What have opposing QBs done to the Lions' D that they haven't done vs. the rest of their schedule to date?
Week 1 - Andrew Luck
vs. Lions: 31-47, 385 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 88.4 QBR, 119.5 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 25-38, 282 yds, 1.7 TD, 0.7 INT, 73.3 QBR*, 98.3 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Luck is a pretty good QB so his numbers vs. the rest of the league are still pretty good. But he did get a boost playing the Leos.
Week 2 - Marcus Mariota
vs. Lions: 25-33, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 67.4 QBR, 102.8 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 19-32, 228 yds, 1.7 TD, 0.8 INT, 55.0 QBR*, 89.5 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Mariota is less good. He didn't get a ton of yards against us, but he was pretty effective, completing roughly 76% of his passes.
Week 3 - Aaron Rodgers
vs. Lions: 15-24, 205 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 99.1 QBR, 129.3 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 27-43, 258 yds, 1.8 TD, 0.8 INT, 73.2 QBR*, 91.7 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
We all know who Rodgers is, but he's on a down year. Additionally, he didn't have to air it out too often vs. Detroit (hence the low number off attempts and yards). But looking past the raw numbers, this was probably Rodgers' best game of the year. 4 TDs, and a near-max QBR and passer rating.
Week 4 - Brian Hoyer
vs. Lions: 28-36, 302 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 89.3 QBR, 120.1 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 21-33, 229 yds, 0.6 TD, 0 INT, 65.2 QBR*, 98.0 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Hoyer was in the middle of a hot streak when the Lions caught him, but they're also partially responsible for said hot streak. His averages kind of lie, since two of his games were limited - week 1 was as a replacement for Cutler, and then he got injured in the 2nd quarter. In actuality, Hoyer's stats vs. the Lions are pretty representative of what he did to everyone else, except that it's Hoyer... Hoyer is a game manager at best. Anyway, the completion % vs. the Lions still stands out a bit.
Week 5 - Carson Wentz
vs. Lions: 25-33, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 58.9 QBR, 102.8 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 19-30, 217 yds, 1.2 TD, 0.4 INT, 50.8 QBR*, 92.7 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
The Lions DID get the first pick on Wentz in his NFL career, which happened to clinch the game, but he was still remarkably effective. Again, look at the COMP%, QBR, and Rtg.
Week 6 - Case Keenum
vs. Lions: 27-32, 321 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 87.3 QBR, 126.7 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 20-34, 231 yds, 0.8 TD, 1.5 INT, 41.9 QBR*, 77.5 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Case Keenum is Patient Zero in this analysis. The dude couldn't miss, he got gobs of yards, found the end zone thrice, and vs. the rest of the league he played at replacement level. I still can't fathom how the Lions managed to win that game. Oh yeah, Stafford. And they picked Keenum right at the end.
Week 7 - Kirk Cousins
vs. Lions: 30-39, 301 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 82.6 QBR, 106.9 Rtg
AVG vs. Rest: 25-38, 283 yds, 1.5 TD, 1 INT, 61.0 QBR*, 92.3 Rtg*
*QBR & Rtg include stats vs Lions
Cousins is better than a replacement-level guy, but not by a lot. He's a solid NFL starter, nothing special. Except when he faced the Lions.
The Lions are near the bottom of the league in passing defense (currently the bottom-ranked defense on Football Outsiders). They don't pressure the QB much, outside of Slay (currently injured) they can't cover anybody, and their LBs are especially terrible in coverage. They get killed by opposing TEs as well, although I'm not going to take the time to break that down. They just dumped LB Kyle Van Noy, a 2nd round Mayhew pick that you could smell the failure on a mile away. It wasn't that he didn't look like a good player, he looked ok. But the Lions' defensive scheme didn't match his skill set (I'd like to add that Mayhew TRADED UP to take Van Noy, a player who obviously didn't fit). He's a pass rushing OLB, and the Lions tried to put him in coverage. He stunk at it. So, Quinn swung a trade that sent him to New England (happy trails & good luck) for a couple of LATE picks. They signed Josh Bynes to take his place in the lineup, a guy I was perfectly happy with last year.
I'm hoping the switch to Bynes boosts our D. With Ngata coming back it should already be a little better, although Slay's absence hurts. Houston's QB Osweiler is yet another middlin' guy who will probably carve us up, but what we really need to worry about is their run game. Lamar Miller has been no joke. The Lions will need to get out to a lead and put Houston in a position where they have to throw it. Osweiler threw it more than 40 times in each of their losses, and under 40 in all 4 of their wins.
Currently the line on this game is Houston -2.5. I think they're probably going to win by 3, so that line is spot on. The Lions could pull this out, but even going into the bye at 4-4 would be an accomplishment, what with all the injuries they've had. A 5-3 record, certainly possible, and would give them a window into the playoffs. I think going 6-2 in their second half would be very difficult, unless they get Levy and Slay back in time for week 10.
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Thursday, October 13, 2016
The Lions Still Are Who I Thought They Were
The Lions posted back-to-back-to-back losses, and each loss was a special, unique snowflake, if snowflakes were depressing dumpster fire horror-shows. First, they lost to Tennessee (a team they should've beaten), by committing roughly a thousand penalties and losing a bajillion yards and having multiple TDs taken off the board (exaggerating about everything but the TDs). Some of those penalties were legit, some were just the result of a crew that seemed a little too flag-happy. For example, one of the TDs that was disallowed was the result of a phantom Eric Ebron offensive pass interference. Anyway, 17 penalties for 138 yards probably cost them the game, without even getting into player performance. It was absolutely a game they should've won, but they shot themselves in the foot.
The next week the Lions lost no time in playing themselves out of the game. They were facing the Packers at Lambeau, so no small task there, and they had a number of injuries to overcome. I had switched the game off before the end of the half (when it was 31-3) for medicinal purposes and was pleasantly surprised to see that they had actually scored some and were only a couple of TDs away from a tie. They of course blew the endgame, since their defense couldn't stop Green Bay's running game despite the fact that everyone KNEW GB had to run it. Anyway, clock ran out, Lions lost down by 1 TD.
I considered the Bears one of the bottom 3 teams in the NFL, so week 3 should've been a gimme. It wasn't. Still pretty banged up on defense (no Levy, Ansah, and weak in general at LB), the Lions surrendered 300+ yds to Chicago's anemic passing attack and allowed a 100+ yd rusher, despite the fact that Chicago was missing it's top RB and 2 offensive lineman. The offense was... thinking of synonyms for putrid... ghastly. The only touchdown was scored by Andre Roberts on an 85-yd punt return. Stafford threw 2 picks in the red zone that likely took points off the board for the Lions. With that, the total lack of a running game (66 total rushing yards) and lack of sustained drives (6 of their 9 possessions were 5 plays or less), the offense flat-out failed to show up for this one. And the defense was little better. The family was travelling back home from my cousin's wedding on the east coast, so I mercifully missed this game entirely.
In one loss, the Lions had the lead and played their way out of the game. In the next, the Lions decided they were going to lose early on, then changed their mind but it was too late. In the third, they decided not to show up entirely. Two of those games were against opponents most expected the Lions to handle. So, facing the 3-0 Eagles, the Lions seemed to be on their way to four straight losses, a 1-4 record, virtual playoff elimination (needing to finish 9-2 to have a shot), and a dead-in-the-water head coach.
Well, the Lions came out firing. They scored TDs on their first three possessions, and the defense managed to hold the Eagles to 10 points in the first half. Unfortunately, the script flipped in the second half. Philly scored a TD on the opening possession, then Stafford fumbled the ball without being touched, giving Philly the ball on our 16 yard line. The defense managed to hold them to a FG, preserving the lead by 1 point.
At some point after this, one of the commentators, Charles Davis, suggested the Lions employ a run-out-the clock type of strategy. They had a 1-point lead and all of the 4th quarter still to go. I'd like to point out that Charles Davis was actually getting paid by Fox for his supposedly informed football opinion. After that statement, I thought Fox might have a case for taking him to court so they could get their money back.
Naturally, Philly kicked a FG on their next drive and the Lions were behind and squeezed for time. They mounted a majestic 3-yd drive, and I figured the game was probably over. Philly managed to bail us out. Darius Slay forced a fumble, Detroit recovered, and after a long review (during which I was SURE the officials were going to screw us, as they have been wont to do in moments like that), the Lions got the ball back in Eagles territory. Unfortunately, the Lions couldn't punch it in, but they managed to hit the FG after Stafford took the sack (with Jones and Boldin open in the end zone) on 3rd & goal.
Philly had no timeouts but a decent amount of time to get in FG range, but Wentz got greedy and threw his first pick of the season. Darius Slay (definitely Player of the Game) got in phenomenal position, ran the receiver's route for him, got a nice over the shoulder catch, and ran it back a bit before sliding to avoid a potential fumble. A couple of kneel downs sealed the victory.
This was not a pretty game by any means. The running game hasn't been adequate since Abdullah went down, and the passing game hasn't been lit for 2 straight weeks now. The Lions are still really banged up. They should be getting Ansah back, but now Ngata is down for 3-4 weeks. They added Justin Forsett to boost the running game, but that offense is pretty banged up. The injury list includes Abdullah, Washington, Boldin, Ebron, Riddick, and Laken Tomlinson. That's like ALL our RBs, half our receivers, and our sort of starting LG. The defense is little better, with Levy and Ngata out of course, Ansah is still limited, and Ngata's most capable replacement on the starting line, A'Shawn Robinson, was limited as well. The Rams are a very beatable team, but the Lions might be too banged up to take advantage.
Looking ahead, that's kind of my prognosis for the season. We took 2 really big hits when Levy & Ansah went down, and then our offense lost all pretense of a running game when Abdullah went down as well. This is pretty close to the worst-case scenario I outlined at the start of the season. On the plus side, I expect our offensive line to improve as the year goes on, so we should start looking a lot better in the last few games. It just won't be soon enough to make the playoffs, or probably even finish with a winning record.
The next week the Lions lost no time in playing themselves out of the game. They were facing the Packers at Lambeau, so no small task there, and they had a number of injuries to overcome. I had switched the game off before the end of the half (when it was 31-3) for medicinal purposes and was pleasantly surprised to see that they had actually scored some and were only a couple of TDs away from a tie. They of course blew the endgame, since their defense couldn't stop Green Bay's running game despite the fact that everyone KNEW GB had to run it. Anyway, clock ran out, Lions lost down by 1 TD.
I considered the Bears one of the bottom 3 teams in the NFL, so week 3 should've been a gimme. It wasn't. Still pretty banged up on defense (no Levy, Ansah, and weak in general at LB), the Lions surrendered 300+ yds to Chicago's anemic passing attack and allowed a 100+ yd rusher, despite the fact that Chicago was missing it's top RB and 2 offensive lineman. The offense was... thinking of synonyms for putrid... ghastly. The only touchdown was scored by Andre Roberts on an 85-yd punt return. Stafford threw 2 picks in the red zone that likely took points off the board for the Lions. With that, the total lack of a running game (66 total rushing yards) and lack of sustained drives (6 of their 9 possessions were 5 plays or less), the offense flat-out failed to show up for this one. And the defense was little better. The family was travelling back home from my cousin's wedding on the east coast, so I mercifully missed this game entirely.
In one loss, the Lions had the lead and played their way out of the game. In the next, the Lions decided they were going to lose early on, then changed their mind but it was too late. In the third, they decided not to show up entirely. Two of those games were against opponents most expected the Lions to handle. So, facing the 3-0 Eagles, the Lions seemed to be on their way to four straight losses, a 1-4 record, virtual playoff elimination (needing to finish 9-2 to have a shot), and a dead-in-the-water head coach.
Well, the Lions came out firing. They scored TDs on their first three possessions, and the defense managed to hold the Eagles to 10 points in the first half. Unfortunately, the script flipped in the second half. Philly scored a TD on the opening possession, then Stafford fumbled the ball without being touched, giving Philly the ball on our 16 yard line. The defense managed to hold them to a FG, preserving the lead by 1 point.
At some point after this, one of the commentators, Charles Davis, suggested the Lions employ a run-out-the clock type of strategy. They had a 1-point lead and all of the 4th quarter still to go. I'd like to point out that Charles Davis was actually getting paid by Fox for his supposedly informed football opinion. After that statement, I thought Fox might have a case for taking him to court so they could get their money back.
Naturally, Philly kicked a FG on their next drive and the Lions were behind and squeezed for time. They mounted a majestic 3-yd drive, and I figured the game was probably over. Philly managed to bail us out. Darius Slay forced a fumble, Detroit recovered, and after a long review (during which I was SURE the officials were going to screw us, as they have been wont to do in moments like that), the Lions got the ball back in Eagles territory. Unfortunately, the Lions couldn't punch it in, but they managed to hit the FG after Stafford took the sack (with Jones and Boldin open in the end zone) on 3rd & goal.
Philly had no timeouts but a decent amount of time to get in FG range, but Wentz got greedy and threw his first pick of the season. Darius Slay (definitely Player of the Game) got in phenomenal position, ran the receiver's route for him, got a nice over the shoulder catch, and ran it back a bit before sliding to avoid a potential fumble. A couple of kneel downs sealed the victory.
This was not a pretty game by any means. The running game hasn't been adequate since Abdullah went down, and the passing game hasn't been lit for 2 straight weeks now. The Lions are still really banged up. They should be getting Ansah back, but now Ngata is down for 3-4 weeks. They added Justin Forsett to boost the running game, but that offense is pretty banged up. The injury list includes Abdullah, Washington, Boldin, Ebron, Riddick, and Laken Tomlinson. That's like ALL our RBs, half our receivers, and our sort of starting LG. The defense is little better, with Levy and Ngata out of course, Ansah is still limited, and Ngata's most capable replacement on the starting line, A'Shawn Robinson, was limited as well. The Rams are a very beatable team, but the Lions might be too banged up to take advantage.
Looking ahead, that's kind of my prognosis for the season. We took 2 really big hits when Levy & Ansah went down, and then our offense lost all pretense of a running game when Abdullah went down as well. This is pretty close to the worst-case scenario I outlined at the start of the season. On the plus side, I expect our offensive line to improve as the year goes on, so we should start looking a lot better in the last few games. It just won't be soon enough to make the playoffs, or probably even finish with a winning record.
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