Football-like substance begins this week

The Lions are getting set to open the preseason this Friday in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. While preseason games, especially early preseason, are hardly must-see TV, it's a good time to review the state of the team and get ready for the actual season.

Key Subtractions

Foremost was the retirement of Calvin Johnson. This was teased almost from the end of the season until his actual announcement in March, which gave the Lions plenty of time to prepare. They lost their best receiver, and still one of the best in the game, but Calvin was in a decline while occupying a good chunk of the Lions' salary cap space. CB Rashean Mathis also retired (thank god). Stephen Tulloch was a total liability last year and was released, as was Joique Bell. James Ihedigbo's contract was up, and he's yet to sign anywhere. Based on his declining skills and rocky play last year, the Lions were glad to see his back. But they failed to re-sign Isa Abdul-Quddus, the safety next in line to Ihedigbo. They also lost backup DE Darryl Tapp and G Manny Ramirez in free agency.

Key Additions

The biggest addition was the hiring of now-GM Bob Quinn, formerly New England's Director of Pro Scouting. So ended the influence of Matt Millen and his hires.

The offensive line was terrible last year, and the defense fell from 3rd in the NFL to 16th. The loss of Ndamukong Suh certainly hurt, but the Lions had poor defensive play on all 3 levels, not just the line. Quinn used the first 6 picks in the draft to address O-line and defense, taking OT Taylor Decker in the first round, getting DT A'Shawn Robinson in the 2nd, C Graham Glasgow in the 3rd, S Miles Killebrew in the 4th, and G Joe Dahl & OLB Antwoine (I swear to god that's not a typo) Williams in the 5th. I expect at least the first 3 of those players to see the field this season.

In free agency, Quinn would first look to replace the gaping hole left by Calvin Johnson. He signed WR Marvin Jones from Cincinnati, a burner with great hands. He also signed super-vet Anquan Boldin, a big-bodied, sure-handed WR who at age 36 still has value as a possession receiver. Quinn also added a slew of mid-level players on both sides of the ball who should bolster the team's overall depth. Mayhew's 2010 & 2011 drafts combined to yield 7 players who were cut and 2 who left the team in free agency, so depth was an issue (2012 was also pretty brutal, yielding 2 starters and a backup now lost to free agency, but also 5 players who were cut). 

Also, cheerleaders. The Lions have cheerleaders now. I took a sort of pride in that we were one of the few organizations without a cheer squad. Nothing against cheerleaders in general, I just liked that we were one of the few holdouts (Bears, Giants, Steelers, Packers, and Browns being the remaining holdouts). 

Battle for Jobs

I'm particularly interested to see how the offensive line will shake out. Does Taylor Decker start out on the blindside, or does he get a year on the right to get used to NFL-level speed rushers? Travis Swanson was an absolute butcher at C last year, and many blame him for causing the O-line as a whole to have a bad year. Some articles this summer have rated him as the 5th-best C in the league, which is utter BS. The Lions drafted Michigan C Graham Glasgow in the 3rd round exactly because Swanson was so terrible. Swanson also can play G, so if Glasgow beats him out at C, he could provide some competition with Schwartz and Tomlinson there. If Glasgow DOES beat out Swanson, by the way, and Decker starts at LT, expect the O-line to have a rocky start to the season.

After the O-line, the defensive secondary is the next place that still has a lot to resolve. You can put Glover Quin at FS and Darius Slay at CB in stone, but after that it gets shaky. Quandry Diggs is the best best to play opposite Slay, but Crezdon Butler filled in well last year for Mathis, Nevin Lawson should be healthy, and Tavon Wilson might fill in there as well. The SS spot opposite Quin could finally be Don Carey's, but I suspect new acquisition Rafael Bush ends up there. Wilson, Killebrew, and Isaiah Johnson also factor into the competition.

Linebacker is pretty straightforward, but the D-line could get interesting. DT A'Shawn Robinson was  a steal for the Lions in the 2nd round, and he could push Tyrunn Walker for snaps. Ngata was solid last year, but is well past his prime and isn't going to play a ton of snaps. Stefan Charles, Caraun Reid, and Gabe Wright are all fighting for the 2nd backup role. The DE position, after Ansah and Taylor, is really thin. Possibly as thin as it's been in quite a while. I'd say we have 1 semi-credible backup, and then... who knows.

Injury Report

DeAndre Levy is still on the Active/Non-football Injury list. The Lions are protecting the nature of the injury as though it's the nuclear launch codes, although they expect Levy to return soon. I wouldn't think that's such a big deal, Levy's injury last year got the exact same treatment and it turned out he was basically done for the year. We are ill-prepared to go another year without Levy, so hopefully this is just some recovery stuff and he's back to playing at a Pro Bowl level.

Another injury we were ill-prepared to deal with was the possible Achilles injury that TE Eric Ebron suffered this weekend. With Brandon Pettigrew still on the PUP list while recovering from HIS Achilles injury from last year, the Lions really don't have a legit TE to throw out there. Ebron is apparently participating in some drills, which rules out a rupture, but even a strain can take 4-6 weeks to heal. None of the remaining TEs on the roster are acceptable enough to start if neither Ebron or Pettigrew can go when the season kicks on on 9/11. They may be forced to scour the remaining free agents at the position, or else be resigned to watch more of Tim Wright's outstanding blocking moves...

Season Outlook

Too early to tell. Obviously. That's the cop out answer, and really anyone can write that. It's accurate too, since there are a lot of untested units on this team. So as a way of avoiding the cop out answer, we'll examine the Lions' ceiling and the floor.

First, the floor. If the O-line never gels, the defense has more injuries than it can overcome, and the Jim Bob Cooter-Stafford relationship that all our offensive hopes are built on turns out to be so much fluff, this is at least a 7-9 team if not worse. Worst case scenario, we're still not as bad as Chicago, who was already slated to finish last in the division and just lost their starting C to an ACL tear. So the Lions' floor is in the 7-9 to 6-10 range.

Now, the ceiling. Before I delve into this, let me titillate you with an excerpt from an article on The Ringer:

Matthew Stafford’s passer rating at the season’s midway point was 84.1; his passer rating over the Lions’ final eight games: 110.1.

Like Cousins in Washington, Stafford did something around the midway point of Detroit’s season that changed everything, and the Lions offense got its groove back.

Detroit’s turnaround did coincide pretty clearly with the Week 8 firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and subsequent promotion of Jim Bob Cooter, the awesomest-named person on Earth. After the transition, Detroit came out of a Week 9 bye and finished the year off on a 6–2 run, a stretch during which Stafford exploded, completing 70 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns (fourth most in the NFL over that period) and just two picks. The Lions’ first half saw defenses calling out their offensive plays before they ran them; the second half of the year saw them become the seventh-highest-scoring team in the NFL over that stretch. This second-half surge went largely unnoticed because of their putrid start, but it should put Detroit back on the playoff radar for 2016. 

Joe Lombardi really should've been fired after his first season, and Caldwell definitely could've salvaged last season by dumping him 4 games earlier. It has to be mentioned that the Lions' 6-2 record in the 2nd half of the season came against a much weaker schedule, but Cooter's offense and fit with Stafford cannot be ignored. So, if Levy remains healthy, the line holds up, and the run game is good enough to keep opposing defenses honest, this is an 11 win team. 

Which will happen? Well, the fact that Levy isn't 100% yet, and the Lions are perilously thin at LB, TE, and DE are causes for concern. But that iffy offensive line is the main reason why I think the Lions end up closer to 7-9 than 11-5. Communication and cohesiveness are possibly the most important components of line play, and a unit featuring up to 2 rookies and possibly 2 position changes will not have that. At best, they'll take 4 weeks to figure it out, and it may not even happen until the end of the season.

I like most of what GM Bob Quinn has done so far, but I doubt we'll see the fruits this season.