Lions Preseason Game #2: Definitely Not Ready Yet

I take all preseason games with a grain of salt the size of Lot's wife, but they're still fun(ish) to watch and try to draw conclusions. Last night, the Lions looked very shaky on almost every level. Not REALLY shaky, but they certainly weren't firing on all cylinders. 

The Good

Matt Stafford did a pretty good job of moving the offense. He wasn't super crisp - missing a read in the end zone that would've gotten a TD and air-mailing a pass into the flat on 3rd & 4 - but he managed to rack up 113 yards on just 11 throws, which is pretty good. He seemed to be developing a rapport with Marvin Jones, who caught 4 passes on 5 targets for a total of 65 yards.

The Receiving Corps in general look pretty good, which is something I've said before. We don't have anybody SO good that defenses will key on him, like they did with Calvin Johnson, but maybe that's a good thing. Tate does so many different things well that you can't cheat on him one way without losing in another. Jones can take the top off of a defense, and Boldin is good at dishing out body blows in the middle. I predict that one of Roberts, Billingsley, or Kerley will emerge as a credible #4 WR.

The defense was a lot of good and bad, but the DBs looked solid, and Ngata is definitely still a capable DT. Actually, that's not really fair to our defense, since we rested our top 2 defensive ends. I don't know that Tyrunn Walker (the other starting DT) played either. And of course DeAndre Levy is still out. Anyway, mixed bag from the defense, but some areas looked pretty good.

The Bad

First, Taylor Decker looked like a rookie. He was often a bit overmatched, and he missed several key blocks on running plays. The offensive line is still playing as a unit that is trying to get to know each other, and the communication and anticipation aren't great. The pass protection was decent in general, although Stafford had ANOTHER fumble-sack on a blindside "look out" block from TE understudy Cole Wick. Speaking of Wick, I was hoping that he would be a more palatable alternative to Ebron, but his blocking skills are severely lacking. His hands are good though.

TJ Jones is probably playing himself out of a roster spot. He's a borderline WR at best, but any value the Lions were hoping he'd add as returner is just not there. He's not decisive, and he runs backwards A LOT. On kickoffs that he returns, I think the Lions' average starting position is probably the 10 yard line. I'd place more blame on the blockers if guys like Andre Roberts and Dwayne Washington weren't doing so much better in the return game.

Dan Orlovsky looks like a capable backup like 75% of the time, but every so often he'll do something monumentally stupid. In the first game, it was the wounded duck he threw that didn't make it out of bounds. In this game, it was yet another pick 6 that I saw coming the second the ball left his hands. I'd like to see what Rudock does with the 2nd team offense.

The defense against the run was atrocious, and they put zero pressure on the QB - . Tackling wasn't great, except from the DBs. Kick and punt coverage was absolutely terrible this week - the Bengals had punt returns of 24 & 30 yards, and two kick returns over 30 yards. That is unacceptable.

 The So-So

I'd put current starting LB and ill-advised draft pick Kyle Van Noy squarely in this category. He totally blew some plays, but also made some nice ones, including a well-timed blitz that resulted in a tackle for a loss. The good news is, he looks like an NFL player for the first time in his career, although he's still a long way away from looking like a high 2nd-round pick. So that's something, I guess.

Theo Riddick looked like a stud in the passing game last year (80 rec for 697 yds), but he hasn't looked like much this preseason. Washington, the 7th-round pick, has looked much better in both the passing and running game, and his TD kickoff return definitely put him on the radar. Zenner and Ridley have been pretty "meh" as well.

The Verdict

It's a preseason game. You can never tell very much anything definitive based on a preseason game, especially one this early. But what I saw was a lot of "not ready yet". 

Lions Preseason Game 1 Tidbits

A few quick things about the Lions' first preseason game:

• Decker definitely is the LT this year. He got beat by James Harrison for a strip sack, which wasn't good, but he was decent overall
• Stafford's protection in general was pretty horrible though. He didn't have a ton of time or a good pocket to throw from. I'm not sure how much we can blame on the center not calling the right protection schemes and how much is due to the RB not reading the blitzes. Keep an eye on this as the first team starts playing more in these games. Glasgow might sneak into that unit if Swanson continues to struggle
• This might be a better WR corps than we had last year. It's amazing to think that despite the loss of Calvin Johnson, we'd be better off, but that's what I think. Golden Tate is actually a better target for Stafford than Johnson, since he's got better hands (70% catch rate to CJ's 59%) and he tends to get open at shorter distances, making Stafford's throw that much easier. Marvin Jones, the #2 WR, has top flight speed AND better hands (63% catch rate), and Anquan Boldin is far over-qualified as a possession WR. With guys like Kerley, Roberts, and Davis fighting for the #4 and #5 spots (all of whom seem better than last year's #3, Lance Moore), this looks like a pretty good position group
• This is the deepest Lions team I can remember. It's not the most talented, but we can afford an injury in almost every area. LB and TE are the 2 thinnest spots, so naturally that's where all the injuries have come from, but other than that... We've got a number of guys who can play in the defensive backfield. DT is a strong spot, although DE is a little weak. Offensive line is strong, WR is good, and we have a ton of RBs. We have a good kicker and punter, and there's another guy getting reps at both spots just in case. We even have 2 long snappers. Team depth is most evident when you look at special teams. In the past, this has been a weak point, but the Lions looked pretty good last Friday, especially on the 96-yd kick return

Here are the highlights in total:

There's not much else to take from this. The starters who even played only played for a couple of series. They got some yards but didn't score. Several of Pittsburgh's key guys didn't even play.

Good news though. DeAndre Levy was taken of the injury list, and presumably is ready to play this week. Andrew Quarless is also getting a look at the injury-depleted TE unit, despite his weapons charge and 2 game suspension to start the year. No real updates on Ebron's injury. It doesn't look super bad, but he's still not practicing. Cole Wick looked adequate in the first preseason game though, so odds are he starts the season as the starting TE until Ebron or Quarless can go.

Danny Kelly at The Ringer REALLY likes Golden Tate's odds to breakout as a star WR this year. He highlights the extra complexities that the Lions' new OC Jim Bob Cooter implemented last year, and how well Tate fit in that system. Some receivers are deep ball, downfield threats. Some are better route runners, good at finding space in the middle of the field. Some are crazy juking maniacs that excel at the bubble screen. Tate does all of these things, and then some. Put it this way - Tate is like Draymond Green, but for the WR position.

I'm starting to get more optimistic about this offense, if you couldn't tell. The passing game should be fun to watch, if Stafford can get some protection. Hopefully the running game is good enough.

Football-like substance begins this week

The Lions are getting set to open the preseason this Friday in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. While preseason games, especially early preseason, are hardly must-see TV, it's a good time to review the state of the team and get ready for the actual season.

Key Subtractions

Foremost was the retirement of Calvin Johnson. This was teased almost from the end of the season until his actual announcement in March, which gave the Lions plenty of time to prepare. They lost their best receiver, and still one of the best in the game, but Calvin was in a decline while occupying a good chunk of the Lions' salary cap space. CB Rashean Mathis also retired (thank god). Stephen Tulloch was a total liability last year and was released, as was Joique Bell. James Ihedigbo's contract was up, and he's yet to sign anywhere. Based on his declining skills and rocky play last year, the Lions were glad to see his back. But they failed to re-sign Isa Abdul-Quddus, the safety next in line to Ihedigbo. They also lost backup DE Darryl Tapp and G Manny Ramirez in free agency.

Key Additions

The biggest addition was the hiring of now-GM Bob Quinn, formerly New England's Director of Pro Scouting. So ended the influence of Matt Millen and his hires.

The offensive line was terrible last year, and the defense fell from 3rd in the NFL to 16th. The loss of Ndamukong Suh certainly hurt, but the Lions had poor defensive play on all 3 levels, not just the line. Quinn used the first 6 picks in the draft to address O-line and defense, taking OT Taylor Decker in the first round, getting DT A'Shawn Robinson in the 2nd, C Graham Glasgow in the 3rd, S Miles Killebrew in the 4th, and G Joe Dahl & OLB Antwoine (I swear to god that's not a typo) Williams in the 5th. I expect at least the first 3 of those players to see the field this season.

In free agency, Quinn would first look to replace the gaping hole left by Calvin Johnson. He signed WR Marvin Jones from Cincinnati, a burner with great hands. He also signed super-vet Anquan Boldin, a big-bodied, sure-handed WR who at age 36 still has value as a possession receiver. Quinn also added a slew of mid-level players on both sides of the ball who should bolster the team's overall depth. Mayhew's 2010 & 2011 drafts combined to yield 7 players who were cut and 2 who left the team in free agency, so depth was an issue (2012 was also pretty brutal, yielding 2 starters and a backup now lost to free agency, but also 5 players who were cut). 

Also, cheerleaders. The Lions have cheerleaders now. I took a sort of pride in that we were one of the few organizations without a cheer squad. Nothing against cheerleaders in general, I just liked that we were one of the few holdouts (Bears, Giants, Steelers, Packers, and Browns being the remaining holdouts). 

Battle for Jobs

I'm particularly interested to see how the offensive line will shake out. Does Taylor Decker start out on the blindside, or does he get a year on the right to get used to NFL-level speed rushers? Travis Swanson was an absolute butcher at C last year, and many blame him for causing the O-line as a whole to have a bad year. Some articles this summer have rated him as the 5th-best C in the league, which is utter BS. The Lions drafted Michigan C Graham Glasgow in the 3rd round exactly because Swanson was so terrible. Swanson also can play G, so if Glasgow beats him out at C, he could provide some competition with Schwartz and Tomlinson there. If Glasgow DOES beat out Swanson, by the way, and Decker starts at LT, expect the O-line to have a rocky start to the season.

After the O-line, the defensive secondary is the next place that still has a lot to resolve. You can put Glover Quin at FS and Darius Slay at CB in stone, but after that it gets shaky. Quandry Diggs is the best best to play opposite Slay, but Crezdon Butler filled in well last year for Mathis, Nevin Lawson should be healthy, and Tavon Wilson might fill in there as well. The SS spot opposite Quin could finally be Don Carey's, but I suspect new acquisition Rafael Bush ends up there. Wilson, Killebrew, and Isaiah Johnson also factor into the competition.

Linebacker is pretty straightforward, but the D-line could get interesting. DT A'Shawn Robinson was  a steal for the Lions in the 2nd round, and he could push Tyrunn Walker for snaps. Ngata was solid last year, but is well past his prime and isn't going to play a ton of snaps. Stefan Charles, Caraun Reid, and Gabe Wright are all fighting for the 2nd backup role. The DE position, after Ansah and Taylor, is really thin. Possibly as thin as it's been in quite a while. I'd say we have 1 semi-credible backup, and then... who knows.

Injury Report

DeAndre Levy is still on the Active/Non-football Injury list. The Lions are protecting the nature of the injury as though it's the nuclear launch codes, although they expect Levy to return soon. I wouldn't think that's such a big deal, Levy's injury last year got the exact same treatment and it turned out he was basically done for the year. We are ill-prepared to go another year without Levy, so hopefully this is just some recovery stuff and he's back to playing at a Pro Bowl level.

Another injury we were ill-prepared to deal with was the possible Achilles injury that TE Eric Ebron suffered this weekend. With Brandon Pettigrew still on the PUP list while recovering from HIS Achilles injury from last year, the Lions really don't have a legit TE to throw out there. Ebron is apparently participating in some drills, which rules out a rupture, but even a strain can take 4-6 weeks to heal. None of the remaining TEs on the roster are acceptable enough to start if neither Ebron or Pettigrew can go when the season kicks on on 9/11. They may be forced to scour the remaining free agents at the position, or else be resigned to watch more of Tim Wright's outstanding blocking moves...

Season Outlook

Too early to tell. Obviously. That's the cop out answer, and really anyone can write that. It's accurate too, since there are a lot of untested units on this team. So as a way of avoiding the cop out answer, we'll examine the Lions' ceiling and the floor.

First, the floor. If the O-line never gels, the defense has more injuries than it can overcome, and the Jim Bob Cooter-Stafford relationship that all our offensive hopes are built on turns out to be so much fluff, this is at least a 7-9 team if not worse. Worst case scenario, we're still not as bad as Chicago, who was already slated to finish last in the division and just lost their starting C to an ACL tear. So the Lions' floor is in the 7-9 to 6-10 range.

Now, the ceiling. Before I delve into this, let me titillate you with an excerpt from an article on The Ringer:

Matthew Stafford’s passer rating at the season’s midway point was 84.1; his passer rating over the Lions’ final eight games: 110.1.

Like Cousins in Washington, Stafford did something around the midway point of Detroit’s season that changed everything, and the Lions offense got its groove back.

Detroit’s turnaround did coincide pretty clearly with the Week 8 firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and subsequent promotion of Jim Bob Cooter, the awesomest-named person on Earth. After the transition, Detroit came out of a Week 9 bye and finished the year off on a 6–2 run, a stretch during which Stafford exploded, completing 70 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns (fourth most in the NFL over that period) and just two picks. The Lions’ first half saw defenses calling out their offensive plays before they ran them; the second half of the year saw them become the seventh-highest-scoring team in the NFL over that stretch. This second-half surge went largely unnoticed because of their putrid start, but it should put Detroit back on the playoff radar for 2016. 

Joe Lombardi really should've been fired after his first season, and Caldwell definitely could've salvaged last season by dumping him 4 games earlier. It has to be mentioned that the Lions' 6-2 record in the 2nd half of the season came against a much weaker schedule, but Cooter's offense and fit with Stafford cannot be ignored. So, if Levy remains healthy, the line holds up, and the run game is good enough to keep opposing defenses honest, this is an 11 win team. 

Which will happen? Well, the fact that Levy isn't 100% yet, and the Lions are perilously thin at LB, TE, and DE are causes for concern. But that iffy offensive line is the main reason why I think the Lions end up closer to 7-9 than 11-5. Communication and cohesiveness are possibly the most important components of line play, and a unit featuring up to 2 rookies and possibly 2 position changes will not have that. At best, they'll take 4 weeks to figure it out, and it may not even happen until the end of the season.

I like most of what GM Bob Quinn has done so far, but I doubt we'll see the fruits this season.