Monday, November 2, 2015

The Lions are Zombies, but Pistons & Wolverines Look Lively

The Lions have reached a status with me that they haven't had in a while. There were a number of seasons where I would check out of games REALLY early. I'd watch a quarter & a half and say, man, I don't need to put myself through this again. They haven't been there for about 4-5 years, but those Marinelli days are back. I missed most of the first half because I was at church. I caught the last few minutes of the half, watched the 3rd quarter and the first series of the 2nd quarter and then switched it to HGTV for my wife's benefit and for my sanity. Ironically, the show that was on at that point was Flea Market Flip - a show were two teams pick up garbage and turn it into something worth owning. Maybe Mayhew should watch too.

The thing that killed me about the Lions' performance in London was they looked everything like a team that had beaten themselves before the coin toss. They blew blocks, missed tackles, committed stupid penalties, dropped passes, missed wide open receivers, took sacks instead of trying to escape... Chris Carter had it nailed pretty good with his comments on NFL Countdown. The Lions' effort yesterday was disgraceful. They are too talented a team to be 1-7, but everyone seems to be going through the motions in about as half-assed a way as you can imagine.



Autobiographical side note: The level of enthusiasm and focus of these Lions remind me of the JV team I played on when I was a junior. I was relegated to JV my junior year because I was buried behind 3 seniors at my position (defensive end) on the Varsity team. That JV team had an embarrassingly bad loss in week 1 (I hadn't been relegated yet), and it didn't take me too long to realize that there were only about 1 or 2 people on that team who were locked in. Everybody else seemed to be jerking around or they didn't get it. I would say at that point that I was a SLIGHTLY above average talent at DE, but on that team I looked like JJ Watt.

My first game with them I had 2 sacks and something like 11 tackles. That's a TON for a DE, comparable to an LB getting 20 (
the leading tackler among DEs this year is Kerry Wynn, who is averaging 5.1 tackles per game and hasn't had more than 8 tackles in any game). I figured I'd get called back up to Varsity after a couple more games, especially after one of the starting Varsity DEs got injured. The problem was that while I remained one of the best players on the team (certainly the best defender), my play deteriorated as the season went on. My effort was still there, primarily, but I made a lot more mental mistakes. It's like I'd been infected with whatever afflicted everyone else on that JV team. I'd been bitten. I wasn't a zombie yet, but I was starting to turn. This Lions team has that same look. The offensive line has been The Walking Dead for the past few weeks, maybe all year, and the virus has spread to everyone else.
In short, the Lions are dead in the water. They could potentially wake back up if some of these new coaches can light a fire under them, but I'm guessing they win 1 or 2 more games at the most. Until they show they're invested in the games they're playing, I'm not going to be invested in watching. I'll check them out for a quarter or two and keep watching if it's worth it, turn it to HGTV if it's not. It's pretty disappointing that we've reached this point with only half the season done.

With the season essentially over, the only thing to really discuss are what changes need to made for next season. First and foremost, Martin Mayhew has to go. He's been an abysmal drafter, other than that 2013 draft, and his misread of the Ndamukong Suh situation was VERY costly. Not to mention the whole situation was his fault in the first place for the way he restructured Suh's contract twice. Mayhew only looks good in comparison with Millen, who had so many blown top 10 picks that he deserves his own wing in the NFL Hall of Shame. The NFL trade deadline is tomorrow and Mayhew seemed to think that the Lions would be buyers which is, to use his own phrasing, "comical". So, #1 - Mayhew OUT. They can chuck him right after the deadline up to the day after the Lions' last regular season game, anything later would be tardy.

The second thing, and I've been thinking this basically all year, is Stafford has to go. He's not mobile enough in the pocket or clever enough to read the defense. The sacks are at least 1/4 his fault. He's inaccurate (always has been) and doesn't have a winning fire, despite what Mayhew seems to think. I like the idea of Memphis's Paxton Lynch, a 6'7" 245 lb athlete who can run it or air it out. I haven't seen a lot of film on him though, and there are other guys to look at, but he's on my radar as a replacement for Stafford who might enter this draft.

I'm undecided on Caldwell. I liked him as an alternative to Schwartz last year, but overall I think he's a neutral coach. Not especially terrible, but not outstanding either. The Lions could keep him or fire him and I wouldn't feel strongly either way, at this point. If they decide to let Caldwell go, the ideal replacement might be Teryl Austin, the current D Coordinator. Other top assistants in the NFL:
Josh McDaniels, OC of the Pats was a HC in Denver for a minute and hopefully learned from mistakes made there. He's been OC for all of New England's championships, and called plays for one of the best offenses in history, that 2007 team that won every game except the Super Bowl.
Todd Haley, the Steeler's OC also has some head coaching experience.

A guy like Pat Shurmur, Philly's OC might be a good option as well. He's a solid OC, and he had the tough luck of having his only HC opportunity so far come in Cleveland. Plus, he was born in the area and has plenty of Michigan connections.
Indianapolis's HC Chuck Pagano looks to be on the hot seat, although most of their problems are related to the personnel moves the team made this past offseason. He's a guy I could see Detroit firing Caldwell for.

That's it for now. I'm pretty tired of even THINKING of the Lions.

***

On the other hand, Michigan won in a stunner on Saturday, and the Pistons are now at 3-0 after fighting past Chicago in OT. Both of these are legit wins. Chicago is still one of the top teams in the East, eking out Cleveland in their opener, and Minnesota was a winning team playing in an emotional game, after their beloved head coach stepped down for health reasons. Michigan has a couple of games I'm penciling in as wins (Indiana and Rutgers), and then finishes the season with a couple of pretty tough games, Penn State and OSU.

The 3-0 Pistons look a LOT better than I thought they'd be, although the shooting hasn't come around yet. So far they've beaten Atlanta, who finished 60-22 last year, Utah, who finished 38-44, and Chicago, who went 50-32. This year those teams are a combined 8-0 against teams other than the Pistons. These were not fluky wins, and this isn't a counterfeit win streak. They earned their 3-0 record, unlike Toronto, who've played 3 shaky teams, or Minnesota's 2-0 record, which has come against basement teams.







So far it appears that the Pistons are hanging their hat on their defense, which FEELS right but actually hasn't been the case since 2008. This game went into OT and yet neither team reached 100 pts. Marcus Morris absolutely WORKED over Tony Snell in this one, Reggie Jackson had some nice drives opened up by rolling with Drummond, but no one else for Detroit looked special on offense. Drummond had a 20/20 game, but most of his points were on putbacks. I will say this - his foul shot looks a lot better this year, and his post game is taking baby steps to the point where it might go from a wrinkle in Detroit's offense to a feature.

The defense is strong, though. The worst defenders (who actually play) are probably Blake, Tolliver, and Meeks - who is out now for 3-4 months. Ilyasova isn't any great shakes on that end either, except he draws a LOT of charges, so that makes up for some of his 1-on-1 deficiencies. KCP looks like a legit stopper now, which was his rep/not the reality for his first 2 seasons. Stanley Johnson has looked like a capable defender, which for a rookie is like saying he's 1st Team All Defense. Morris has been good, Reggie Jackson has been adequate, and Drummond has had a LOT more luck closing off the paint with Monroe gone.

We don't know anything yet. Not really. The Pistons could be riding high and fall apart in their next game. They've been riding Marcus Morris on offense, and that might not be sustainable. They will need to adapt as the season goes on. But early indications are promising.

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