Trades

The BPA strategy in drafting (best player available) is a crock. First of all, it should really be BPAAPON, or Best Player Available At Position Of Need. That, at least, is plausible. But when Martin Mayhew says that he subscibes to BPA drafting, I probably don't need to tell you that he's full of it. He KIND of admitted that last week, although Mayhew has a tendency to talk out of both sides of his mouth, even when he's owning up to something. You can't exactly claim that you're drafting the best player available when you trade up in the draft twice.

Bill Barnwell broke down the draft day trades last week, and the Lions were on the wrong side of 2 of the 3 most one-sided trades in this draft. The one time they traded down didn't crack the list. The sum total of the pick trading was a bit kinder to Detroit, having them net a value of - 0.4, the equivalent of giving up a late 7th round pick for nothing. In other words, the Lions broke just below even, after all their trading up and down in the draft.

If you were among the population that was shocked/excited/euphoric that the Lions actually TRADED DOWN in the first round of the draft, be advised that they've already burned through that credit. How good this actually is remains to be seen. The early impressions of last year's draft weren't particularly good and the results were worse. My impression of the previous draft was positive, and the results were even better. I'm lukewarm on this draft. All the trading didn't actually get Mayhew any advantage, so these players are really going to have to work out.

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Speaking of trading, the Tigers needed a center fielder this year, so over the winter they swung a 1-for-1 trade of 2B Devon Travis for Toronto CF Anthony Gose. While Gose has been pretty good (.325/.365/.463, 1 HR, 6 SB, with decent defense), Toronto is winning this trade so far. Travis is hitting .288 with 7 HR and 25 RBI, and his defensive contributions have exceeded Gose's. If you sum up runs scored, RBI, and defensive runs saved for each player, Travis has contributed 49 runs to Toronto's offense while Gose (a platoon CF) has only chipped in 19. Plus, Travis has been hitting some BOMBS.

It's early. There's obviously a potential Chris Shelton/2006 factor in this hot start Devon Travis is having, especially considering the lack of power history. Travis hit 10 HR in 441 at bats last year on Detroit's AA Erie team, not exactly an indicator of a powerful homerun monster lurking in the minors. Still, prior to this early breakout, I would've said Travis might become a .300 hitter with 20-20 ability. That's a pretty nice player, especially at 2B. Of course, that was his ceiling and by all accounts he wasn't ready for the Bigs yet (those accounts were clearly wrong).

Detroit's "get" in this deal, Anthony Gose, isn't exactly a slouch either. He's essentially the same age as Travis, and going into this season was viewed as more MLB ready at a position where the Tigers needed depth. Gose's stats in the minors profile out as an average hitter with little power, but decent speed and defense. Many Tigers fans complained about Dombrowski shipping out another prospect to pick up a marginal talent at a position of need. Others argued that Dombrowski has a pretty good track record for selling high on minor league talent.

In 5 years we may be looking at Travis as "the one that got away". Right now Gose is hitting well, but strictly as the left-handed side of a CF platoon with Rajai Davis. Travis is a big reason why Toronto is the #1 run-scoring offense in baseball. It's not 100% analogous, but this could end up being this generation's John Smoltz Trade.