2005 NFL DraftFirst of all, the Williams pick was a head scratcher. The prevailing "wisdom" at the time was that "when a player like that falls to you, you abandon all other plans and take him." Uh, NO YOU DON'T. You certainly don't take a WR in the 1st round 3 years in a row. Either trade the pick or take someone at a position of need.
1st rd, pick 10 - WR Mike Williams. Oh boy. Could've had DE/OLB DeMarcus Ware (8 Pro Bowls, 4 1st-team All Pro), DE/OLB Shawne Merriman (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP), LB Derrick Johnson (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP), OR... (little drumroll please)... QB Aaron Rodgers (4 PB, 2 1st-team AP, 1 Super Bowl MVP, 2 NFL MVP). Ware would've been a phenomenal guy to take, Johnson was reportedly the guy the Lions were targeting before Williams dropped and he would have been fine as well. But come on, Aaron Rodgers! Joey wasn't working out, in our dream scenario we've got Brees who is coming off of knee surgery and at or near the end of his contract. Take Rodgers!
2nd rd, pick 37 - DT Shaun Cody. The Lions traded their 2nd & 4th round picks to move up and take Cody, who never did much. With their original pick they could've had LB Lofa Tatupu (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP), DB Nick Collins (3 PB), LT Michael Roos (1 PB, 1 1st-team AP), WR Vincent Jackson (3 PB), or RB Frank Gore (5 PB). Gore's the best of this group, but they needed to take a LB, so make it Lofa.
3rd rd, pick 72 - CB Stanley Wilson. Could've had... well, anyone would've been better, but the headliners are DE Justin Tuck (2 PB, 1 1st-team AP), or OG Evan Mathis (2 PB, 1 1st-team AP). This might be Millen's worst draft ever, from a pure philosophy stand point.
2006 NFL Draft
Probably Millen's 2nd-worst draft. Two really bad drafts in a row...
1st rd, pick 9 - LB Ernie Sims. Sims was a relief in that he wasn't a WR, but he was disappointing in all other ways. The Lions could've taken NT/DT Haloti Ngata (5 PB, 2 1st-team AP), LB Chad Greenway (2 PB), CB Johnathon Joseph (2 PB), or C Nick Mangold (6 PB, 2 1st-team AP). Center would be a greater need, considering in our dream scenario that we didn't take Raiola, but no one takes a C 9th overall. Ngata gets a year to develop behind Shaun Rogers before the wheels fall off of him, and then hey, we have the best DT in the game ready to go when Rogers leaves.
2nd rd, pick 40 - CB Daniel Bullocks. As I've said before, the expectation is that you draft a starter or eventual starter with your 2nd round pick. Bullocks was out of the league after 2 years. Detroit could've had S Roman Harper (2 PB), LT Marcus McNeill (2 PB), WR Greg Jennings (2 PB), or RB Maurice Jones-Drew (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP). I have needs at S, Westbrook is probably getting tired of being the only RB in town... I'll take Harper here.
3rd rd, pick 74 - RB Brian Calhoun. Calhoun managed 54 yds rushing in his career, not exactly Walter Payton. They could've had RG Jahri Evans (6 PB, 4 1st-team AP), TE Owen Daniels (2 PB), WR Brandon Marshall (5 PB, 1 1st-team AP), or DE Elvis Dumervil (4 PB, 2 1st-team AP). TE fills the biggest need, so I'll take Daniels.
2007 NFL DraftThe first 2 picks weren't bad, but trading up killed this draft.
1st rd, pick 2 - WR Calvin Johnson (5 PB, 3 1st-team AP). Ok, can't kill Millen for this one. At the time I was more familiar with RB Adrian Peterson (6 PB, 3 1st-team AP) & thought the greater need was at RB, but everyone said CJ was a once in a generation WR (and they were right). They could've taken Peterson, LT Joe Thomas (8 PB, 5 1st-team AP), or CB Darrelle Revis (6 PB, 4 1st-team AP), but it's hard to go against one of the 3 best WR of all time. This draft had an AMAZING 1st round, by the way, except for the #1 pick (JaMarcus Russell, classic Raiders-type pick).
2nd rd, pick 43 - QB Drew Stanton. Stanton turned into an acceptable backup, but he never rated higher than 3rd-string with Detroit. The 2nd round is NOT where you draft your 3rd-string QB. The Lions traded back because the Bills wanted Posluszny (who would've been a better pick for the Lions as well), but you maybe don't want to pick your backup QB quite this high. Not if you're secure in your QB situation, and since in our dream scenario we drafted Aaron Rodgers, we're good. Could've had DE LaMarr Woodley (1 PB), or LB David Harris. Or keep the pick & take Posluszny.
2nd rd, pick 58 - DE Ikaika Alma-Francis. Wasted pick (30 career tackles, 1 sack), and it cost them 2 mid-round picks. They could've had C Ryan Khalil (4 PB, 1 1st-team AP). Realistically we would've filled in a low draft pick center or signed a veteran FA by now, but either way it'll be a need. I'll do the trade if we get Khalil, otherwise it's a dumb trade.
2nd rd, pick 61 - S Gerald Alexander. Again, the Lions traded 2 mid-round picks in 2008 for the opportunity to draft Alexander, who basically did nothing his whole career. WHY??? If they hadn't done this trade, they'd have the 74th pick and taken either DE Charles Johnson or DT Brandon Mebane, then used the 101st pick to take S Dashon Goldson. Millen was TERRIBLE about trading up in drafts.
2008 NFL Draft
Millen traded all around in this draft. The defense & offensive line had the biggest needs. Let's see what he did...
1st rd, pick 17 - RT Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus turned into an okay-not-great RT, but who takes a RT with the 17th pick? The Lions actually traded 2 spots back with KC so the Cheifs could draft LT Brandon Albert (1 PB), which sounds like insanity to me. Albert would've been a fine pickup. They could've also taken CB Aqib Talib (2 PB), RB Chris Johnson (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP), or LT Duane Brown (3 PB, 1 1st-team AP). As tempting as it is to grab Chris Johnson here, I'll take Brown, start him at RT, then slide him over to LT when Light starts to lose it.
2nd rd, pick 45 - LB Jordan Dizon. Millen continues his strategy of getting practically zero production from any pick after round 1. WR DeSean Jackson (3 PB) or RB Ray Rice (3 PB) would've been the go-to move here. Take Rice, and then make sure he gets some sensitivity training before 2014 happens.
3rd rd, pick 64 - RB Kevin Smith. Millen traded the 2 picks he got from moving back in round 1 so he could take Smith here. Don't do the trade, keep the 66th overall pick and take TE Jermichael Finley. What also stings is RB Jamaal Charles (4 PB, 2 1st-team AP) was also available here. Once again, Millen picks the wrong guy.
3rd rd, pick 87 - DT Andre Fluellen. This pick was part of the trade that sent Shaun Rogers to Cleveland. Fluellen was a useful player, although he remained a career backup. The other player in the trade, CB Leigh Bodden, was coming off a 6 INT season. He played 1 crappy season in Detroit, 2 crappy seasons in New England, and that was it for him. Rogers had to go, but this deal directly led to the 0-16 season. Get something better for Rogers.
3rd rd, pick 92 - DE Cliff Avril. The Avril pick was acquired from the Cowboys for Detroit's 2008 & 2009 4th round picks. Avril turned out to be one of the top 40 players in this draft, so this was a rare occasion when Millen trading up actually worked out.
8 years of Millen, on the cusp of a 4-0 preseason and an 0-16 REAL season, let's see what team the anti-Millen has wrought.
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Ray Rice
WR1 - Andre Johnson
WR2 - Calvin Johnson
TE1 - Owen Daniels
TE2 - Jermichael Finley
LT - Matt Light
LG - Andre Gurode
C - Matt Khalil
RG - Chris Snee
RT - Duane Brown
DE - Dwight Freeney
DT - Haloti Ngata
DT - Darnell Dockett, Brandon Mebane
DE - Justin Tuck, Cliff Avril
MLB - Lance Briggs
OLB - Lofa Tatupu
OLB - David Harris
CB - Charles Tillman
CB - DeAngelo Hall
FS - Dashon Goldson
SS - Roman Harper
That's a Super Bowl dynasty team right there. Obviously no one nails that many draft picks, but look how few of them were actually drafted by Millen - Only CJ and Avril. Interestingly enough, the teams that benefitted the most from good drafting were Green Bay, New England, the Ravens, the Saints, and Chicago. Of the 28 players Millen took in the top 3 rounds of 8 different drafts, 16 were total busts (including 4 HIGH 1st-rounders) and 6 were hugely disappointing, leaving 6 useful players drafted over 8 years. NOT good.
Combine that with all the trading up in the draft that Millen did, and you end up with a talent-bereft roster. The word was that Millen often ignored the advice of his scouts and reached for players that he decided he liked, often trading up to acquire those players. This could be guys trying to keep jobs, but Millen hasn't ever called them out on it, so it's probably true. Plus it jives with other things I've read about Millen. He was arrogant, thought he knew everything, and overrode anyone who disagreed.
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This sets up my NFL Draft Preview column next week, where I go through the Combine data & compare that with game highlights. Today you get a bonus column, because the Pistons were particularly active at the trade deadline & we HAVE to go over those moves. So, check back later today!
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