Matt Stafford is making this tricky. After the KC game, it looked pretty clearly as though he would never earn his contract. Since then he's posted 4 passer ratings over 100 and 4 QBRs higher than 70 (only the top 5 QBs in the league have total QBRs over 70). He's bumped his overall passer rating from bottom quarter in the league to top 10. People, local people, are making a big deal about this. Stafford is finally answering his critics. He's won 5 of his last 7. Beat a playoff-level team on the road (Green Bay). He set a team completion % record for a game when he went 22-25 vs. New Orleans. Only thrown 2 picks. These are truly astounding numbers.
The Lions would have you believe that Stafford is finally clicking with an offensive coordinator and all this is replicable. I think that's partly true, but I think what they'd like to gloss over is the fact that they've only played 2 above average defenses (St. Louis & Green Bay) in that span, and Stafford went 1-2 in those games, throwing both of his picks. Every other defense he's seen has been mediocre (Philly) to piss poor (New Orleans). Taking this into account, I still have to admit that while the version of Stafford we're currently seeing isn't real, neither was the crappy version we saw in weeks 1-8.
So what now? I've been advocating taking a QB with our top draft pick, preferably Paxton Lynch. He has the measurables, accuracy, rocket arm, mobility, etc. that you want in a starting QB these days. The problem is that the Lions are now 6-9 and could easily finish 7-9, which wouldn't give them a high enough pick to draft him. A guy like Curt Cousins might be available in round two, but I'm less sold on the idea that the answer to turning this team around lies with a QB change.
Ever since Matt Stafford has been there, the offensive line has stunk. You need a good offensive line to have a consistent offense. You need physicality, you need good pass protection, you need depth - 7 guys, not just 5. Every time I analyze Stafford, I come out of it saying, 'well, he can only do so much.' The offensive line doesn't just protect Matthew Stafford, it protects the Offense. It allows you to call certain plays in certain situations the comfort. If you don't have a good offensive line, your play-caller is scared TO DEATH for 60 minutes because every play is potentially a catastrophically negative play due to seepage.
When he said "the offensive line protects the offense", I thought about how bad we at picking up a 3rd & 1 or a 4th & 1. The Lions get stuffed A LOT on those plays. A big reason why Calvin Johnson has been so much less productive this year is because Stafford can't sit back in the pocket long enough for him to get down field. Another thing Dilfer brought up is that offensive line players take at least 3 years to develop. Anybody we draft now is going to be more for depth, less for instant impact.
Previously I probably would've rated Detroit's needs going into the off-season as 1. QB, 2. OL, 3. CB, 4 DL. Now it's more like 1. OL/DL, 2. OL/DL, 3. OL/DL, 4. CB. I'm still not crazy about Stafford, especially at the price he's going to command when his contract expires, but I think he could end up a "good" QB, given the right line. By the way, every time some draft analyst says something like, "you got a franchise QB, you need to get some toys to play with" in reference to whichever WR, I want to punch that guy in the face. The best gift you can give a QB is a really good line, not a "matchup nightmare" receiving threat.
I haven't exactly sworn off posting about the Lions, but I'm pretty close. I'm only interested in the outcome of the games as far as their draft position is concerned. I mainly watch the games to see players like Slay & Ansah come into their own and to identify what needs to change for next season. So, I don't see much point in posting anything until the season is over, unless something notable happens.
Well, something happened after the game that pissed me off. Following the loss to St. Louis on Sunday, there was more than the usual amount of attention paid to Eric Ebron. Detroit selected Ebron with the 10th pick in the 2014 draft, and he's been...underwhelming. The pick was superfluous at the time, and with needs on the OL, at CB, potentially at WR (Golden Tate was considered a questionable signing at the time) and with every DT on the roster at the time heading into free agency the following year, picking a TE that high was a head scratcher. OT Taylor Lewan went 11th, WR Odell Beckham Jr went 12th, and St. Louis took DT Aaron Donald with the 13th pick. Any one of those guys would've been a preferable alternative, although I'd rather not have to deal with Lewan's attitude problems. Both OBJr and Donald made the Pro Bowl as rookies. So a storyline going into this game (media are always looking for hot takes) was the comparison between the production the Rams get from Donald, a guy the opposition always has to account for, and what the Lions get from Ebron, who was 2nd on the depth chart behind our other stone-handed TE who is a better blocker.
The results on the field were about what you'd expect. Ebron had 3 catches on 5 targets for a total of 27 yards, the longest completion going for 11 yards. Donald had 5 tackles, 3 of them sacks, and 6 QB hits. He continually collapsed the pocket, drew double-teams, and forced the ball out quicker than the Lions wanted. In other words, Ebron was Detroit's 4th-best receiving threat and Donald was St. Louis' best defensive player. Here's what Ebron had to say after the game:
“I’m happy for his success,” Ebron said of Donald. “I’m happy for the scheme he’s in. I’m happy that they’re giving him an opportunity to shine.
“I’m not upset. You guys are upset. The media is upset. The fans are upset. I don’t care. I didn’t choose to come here. They (Lions) chose me to come here. There’s nothing I can do about it.”
On one hand, he's right. He didn't pick himself. A lot of the ire around Ebron comes from Mayhew's decision to grab him with the 10th overall pick, and that's something over which he has no control. On the other hand, it's not like his name was entirely out of place at that point in the draft. He was rated pretty highly, so the only weird thing was that it was Detroit, who already had 2 TEs, who was picking him there. His production has been more like that of a 3rd round pick, not a top 10 guy, and that is ABSOLUTELY under his control. You want to shut some people up Ebron? Play better. Stop dropping every other ball that hits your hands. Get open. Figure out how to block a little.
The biggest problem is the 2nd quote, where he says he isn't upset, he doesn't care, and he didn't choose to come here. First of all, he's clearly upset, so that's a lie. But he seems to take more of victim's stance instead of empowering himself to change. He hasn't been good. His comments seem to suggest that he thinks he's been good enough, there's nothing he can really do to get better, and he doesn't want to be here anyway. Great. Looking forward to watching Ebron go through the motions for the final 3 games?
***
The Pistons have essentially been a .500 team. They follow up blowout losses with blowout wins, heartbreaking losses with nail-biting wins, and so forth. Their actual record is 14-12, which I know is ACTUALLY over .500 (and their Pythagorean Win Expectation would disagree with me at 15-11), but they FEEL like a .500 team. I was hoping they could get over that .500 hump by stringing some quality wins together, but unfortunately some costly mistakes from Andre Drummond and the coach SVG led to another loss against the Clippers.
Drummond had an ok game. He was 4-8 from the stripe, which is acceptable for him, 20 & 15 with 3 steals is good, but no blocks and he only shot 8-17 overall. But he missed a key FT at the end of the 4th that opened the door for LA to tie it up (I'll get into why he was even on the line in a clutch situation in a sec), and he went rogue on Detroit's last defensive possession, which caused a lapse in the defense and left Jamal Crawford open for the game-winning 3.
Reggie Jackson was spectacular. 34 pts, 11 rebs, 7 dimes, .500 FG% & 2-2 from three, solid defense on Chris Paul. The bench was ok, giving rarely seen offensive production from Steve Blake and Aron Baynes. They were still in the negative for +/- but the Pistons started their big push to take over the game with the bench on the floor in the 4th quarter.
Stan Van Gundy made some largish mistakes at the end of the game that led to the Pistons losing the game. First, he left Drummond in the game while Blake Griffin was shooting free-throws. There were just over 25 seconds left in the game and LAC was about to be down by 2 if Blake made both (he did), so the Clips were in a situation where they HAD to foul. I didn't know you could commit a foul on a FT attempt with the ball in the air, and apparently neither did SVG, but Doc Rivers knew and so he had Redick foul Drummond with no time going off the clock. Drummond split the pair of FTs, putting the Pistons up by 3. Stan compounded the error by not fouling. If the Pistons foul there, either Paul or Blake are shooting 2 FTs and still have to foul or lose. By not fouling, Redick was able to get open and drain a 3. Whoops.
Last thing I'm going to say about this game. The fouling/intentional fouling situation is ridiculous. The games become unwatchable, they get unnaturally extended by excessive timeouts and substitutions, and no one wants to watch a free-throw contest/time out-off. I hated this even when the Pistons weren't as affected (hardly anyone employed Hack-a-Dre when we sucked), and now I hate it more. This game was particularly bad, and the final 3 minutes of regular time & 5 minutes of OT took nearly an hour. Here are my suggestions to fix the current state:
Treat all off-the-ball fouls like a defensive 3 seconds call. It's still considered a personal foul, but the fouled player gets 1 shot & the offense keeps the ball
If the FT shooting team commits a foul on a made free-throw attempt, the FT is wiped off as with lane violations
I don't know if either of these are exactly perfect solutions, but I think both rules would help close some (what I consider to be) loopholes and make the game more enjoyable to watch.
The Lions have been disappointingly good-ish the past couple of weeks. Ever since they won in Green Bay (for the 1st time since 1991) they've been on a sort of a roll... A roll in that they've won 3 straight games against struggling teams while only playing anything resembling "good offense" in one of those games. It's nice to watch the Lions win, especially on Thanksgiving, but... It's empty. All of it. There are 5 games left, and the other 3 teams in the division would basically have to all lose out for Detroit to make the playoffs. So forget about THAT.
Additionally, my dreams of picking up a top tier QB to replace Stafford are dwindling as the team continues to rack up meaningless wins and move backward in draft order (if the draft were today, they'd be picking 12th vs. the #1 overall pick they were in line for 3 weeks ago). Plus, the organization is less likely to want to replace Stafford as he lives up to his "Stat Padford" nickname by playing pretty well in some meaningless games against poor competition. Stafford's average QBR has been 9 points better in the last 3 games and his average QB rating has been 20 points better. The Packers are still reeling, so I don't know if they'll provide some real competition or if it'll be more of this fool's gold we've been getting.
All the good feelings I had about the Lions' organizational direction have dissipated, despite the wins. First, they hired Rod Wood to replace Tom Lewand as team president. This might seem like no big deal, but to me it mirrors what the Lions did when they hired Lewand and Mayhew in the first place - going with an internal hire instead of trying to change the culture. Then the Lions put their insecurity on display when they demanded CBS fire local radio personality Mike Valenti for being overly critical of the Lions on air. CBS decided not to censor their on-air talent, so the Lions announced they'll move their radio broadcasts to another channel. If that doesn't tell you what a crap organization this is, nothing will.
Check the video, if you have a minute. Valenti goes on a 10min rant about how the Lions PR department have gone after him over the past 10 years and tried desperately either to get him fired or change his tune. Now, I'll be the first to say that Valenti goes too far with his negativism. No doubt. But the fact that the Lions seem to care more about what's being said than by the product they produce should speak volumes. They've had too many Yes men over the years and not enough contrarians. That led to 7 years of Millen, followed by 7 years of Mayhew. When Martha Ford went through Allen Park firing people left and right, I thought, "Khaleesi!" After the Ford family hired Wood and pulled their broadcasts from 97.1 The Ticket, I thought, "Nope, she's Cersei Lannister."
I was pleasantly surprised to see they let Alex Avila go, given that his dad is now the GM. AA was great behind the plate, but I won't miss watching him watch strike three go whistling by. They still need to add another bat, in my opinion, and probably 1 more starter and 1 reliever. I don't expect any more "swing for the fences" moves, but I'm not ruling it out. Mike Illitch wants to WIN.
The Pistons have leveled off. I'm actually pretty happy about where they are right now, because it feels sustainable. Possibly even improvable. They have credible wins against Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Miami, and now Houston. They also have some troubling losses against the Lakers, Kings, and Nets. They are back up at .500 through 18 games, and they really feel like a .500 team right now. That said, I can definitely see where they could improve and turn into maybe a middle-of-the-road playoff team, like a 4 or a 5 seed.
Issue Area #1: Reggie Jackson He goes from being Point God to Pointless Guard, and the Pistons only win with the first one. Reggie needs to look for shooters more, and he needs to do a better job of finding Drummond. I'm fine with him playing hero-ball when his shot is falling, but Reggie needs to learn how to back off and impact the game positively when he isn't shooting well. Right now, his solution to a bad shooting night is to keep shooting.
Issue Area #2: The Stench UnitThis is what I call our bench. They might be the worst bench in the country. Stanley Johnson is coming around, but they're basically a bunch of replacement-level players apart from him. Van Gundy was forced to mix up his substitutions to avoid playing the bench all at the same time. There is basically no backup SG, so he'll keep KCP in the game, or slide Stanley Johnson over to SG and play Marcus Morris with the other bench players. The easy answer is to count on the return of Brandon Jennings, but he won't be 100% right off the bat. And they still need a backup PG.
Issue Area #3: Hack-a-Dre/Double-a-DreDrummond looked for all the world like his FT issues were fixed at the beginning of the year, but since then his FT% has dropped into the sub-.400% range. The Pistons were rolling and had an 18 point lead last night, until Houston went into full Hack-a-Dre with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. SVG subbed in Aron Baynes for Drummond 30 seconds later with the lead still at 18. By the end of the quarter, Houston had trimmed 7 points off the lead. Stan cannot give in to Hack-a-Dre. He should either employ the same strategy and turn the game into a Free-Throw Brick-a-thon, or else let them foul away and play defense.
Let me explain the second thing. Drummond is an evolving post player. Most of the time, the opponent is physically out-matched. He's going to start seeing more double teams as his hook shot falls more frequently. Whenever a perimeter player doubles down & swipes at the ball, Dre turns it over. He needs to learn to sense the pressure and kick it out to the open guy. He doesn't do this right now, and it's one of the reasons why the offense doesn't work really well most of the time (24th out of 30 teams in offensive rating). The Pistons aren't shooting the 3 very well right now, but that should change when Drummond learns when to pass.
All in all, I'm excited by the team. They have their moments when they look legitimately GOOD. My dad & I are going to see the Warriors game when Ben Wallace's number will be retired at halftime. First game I've gone to in a few years. I'm really looking forward to it. Lots to talk about with Michigan, the Tigers, and the Lions, so I'll get to that tomorrow.
I'm behind in my posting. I wanted to write about the Pistons yesterday, but I was having some technical problems getting the highlights video to post to the Lions recap piece. So, here I am, a day late and a dollar short. I had been getting worried about Reggie Jackson. The Pistons invested a lot in him, $80M over 5 years. They essentially traded for him last year so he could audition for the role of PG of the Future, and he was good enough to land the role. His stats last year? 17 ppg, 9.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 turnovers, and decent shooting percentages. He looked like a totally different player through the first 10 games. He was looking for his own shot more, pounding the air out of the ball, and turning it over like crazy without racking up the assists. On the telecast, Greg Kelser mentioned that SVG sat down with Reggie after the LA game (which was a nightmare game for him) and watched film from when he was playing better last year. Apparently it worked.
Reggie was a new man. He started the game off with a beautiful lob to Drummond, and the rest of the first quarter was much of the same. When the reserves came in, the ball movement proved to be contagious as it was whipped around the arc, inside and out. It got a little bogged down in the 2nd half, partly due to a little regression from Reggie, but the 4th quarter was all Pistons. Drummond played a manful game. He looked tentative in his PNR defense for a stretch of the game, and Cleveland exploited that to make a couple of runs. The defense tightened up in the 4th quarter, especially on LeBron James. He would finish the game with a nice stat line of 30 pts and 6 boards on decent shooting numbers (11-21, 4-7 from 3 and 4-5 from the line), but only 3 assists and 4 turnovers. His 4th quarter was particularly ugly: 2-5 from the field and 1-2 from the line for 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers (both in the final minute of the game). A big reason involved Stan Van Gundy's end game strategy of putting Reggie Jackson on LeBron and swinging Drummond over on the double-team when LeBron tried to bully him in the post. It was a brilliant move, forcing LeBron to get rid of the ball, once throwing it into the backcourt for a violation. A strategy I expect to see a lot of this year is the Hack-a-Dre. We've been spared this brand of ugly basketball prior to this year because the Pistons haven't been very good. Now, opposing coaches fear this team more than they have in the past and have already employed Hack-a-Dre in a couple of games. It was weird to see the Cavs use it while they were ahead, though. For example, the Clippers were behind by 9 or 10 when they broke out Hack-a-Dre. Drummond missed a couple of FTs, Stan pulled him from the game (big mistake), and LA took over from there. This time, Stan stuck with Drummond, and Dre rewarded him by knocking down his FTs. 5-9 for the game isn't ideal, but it's good enough to making Hack-a-Dre a dubious strategy. Overall, the offense looked the best it has all year. The defense wasn't always there, but it certainly showed up in the 4th quarter. The excellent ball movement led to all 5 starters finishing with double-digit scoring totals, including 20+ point games from Drummond (3 boards away from yet another 20-20 game), Reggie Jackson (also had a double-double with 12 assists), and Ersan Ilyasova. The bench was bad again, but Brandon Jennings sat down with Blaha and Kelser for an in-game interview, and I have a lot of hope that he'll be back soon to bolster the bench unit. If that happens and Reggie's PG renaissance continues, this team could be a force in the East.
***
The Tigers made an out-of-the-blue move yesterday, trading a mid-level prospect for Francisco Rodriguez. On one hand, this move smacks of every ill-conceived closing solution Dave Dombrowski ever came up with - trading for an aging closer on the down side of his career. None of those worked, because Dombrowski kept getting guys who had little to nothing left in the tank. The difference here is K-Rod (so called because he racks up a ton of Ks) has morphed from a flame-thrower to a more savvy pitcher. He's 33 and his fastball isn't what it was when he was striking out 11 guys per 9 innings. Per fangraphs, his average fastball has dipped from 95 mph at his peak to just below 90 mph. I had been under the impression that Rodriguez was done as a closer, but after a couple of years of growing pains when his velocity started to drop, he's come back as one of the better closers in baseball by mixing his pitches. He'll start the season at the age of 34, but there are encouraging comps in Trevor Hoffman (very successful into his 40s) and Koji Uehara (still good at 40) of closers who followed a similar path. My initial reaction was that new GM Al Avila was following in Dombrowski's footsteps for acquiring a new closer, a path that led to much weeping and gnashing of teeth. A deeper looks shows that not only does K-Rod have something left in the tank, he's improved to be a more effective pitcher now than he was 5 years ago.
I thought the only positive thing to come out of this Lions season would be good draft position and the end of the Matt Stafford era. Fortunately, I was wrong. The Lions beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field, something that hasn't happened since December 15, 1991. That is a LONG losing streak. The victory potentially hurts their draft position (they go from dead last to now 2nd-to-last, tied with 4 other 2-7 teams and behind 2-8 Cleveland), but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we can lose enough down the stretch to still be able to draft Paxton Lynch. It REALLY feels good to get off the schneid from that Lambeau losing streak.
The game was super ugly. Some of this was good game-planning by BC Teryl Austin, but a good deal of this was Aaron Rodgers was AWFUL. I haven't seen him play as bad as he has the past 3 games in a LONG time. He's inaccurate, missing open receivers, and he sometimes doesn't look like he knows whether to run for it or pass. The Lions shut down GB's run game, so it was basically all on Rodgers and right now he's like a pitcher who needs a week off to work on his mechanics. Detroit's offense was BARELY better than GB's. They benefited from a near kickoff return for a TD. I thought Ameer Abdullah crossed the goal line, but Caldwell elected not to challenge. I get why you don't challenge there - teams eventually punch it in about 99% of the time from there - but the Lions ALMOST screwed that up. I REALLY didn't like the play-calling there. The Lions ran Joique Bell off tackle once (the words "Joique Bell" and "run off tackle" should never be in conjunction) and a bubble screen thing to Tate (which doesn't make sense in that situation with a shorter field) netted 0 yards, and I was legitimately concerned. Thankfully, they called a play that actually made sense on 3rd down and Stafford connected with Pettigrew in the end zone.
I spent the entire game guessing how the Lions were going to blow this one. Stafford threw a BAD pick right when they were at least going to get 3 points. Matt Prater, solid on FGs, was 0-2 on extra points. He's missed no FGs all year, 3 extra points. Go figure. The Lions then allowed GB to cut right through their defense and score, but lo & behold, played solid D on the 2-pt conversion attempt and recent call-up Crezdon Butler knocked Rodgers' pass away (although somehow he wasn't credited with a pass defended on the stat sheet). At this point, the game should've been over, but Mason Crosby executed a pretty good on-side kick and Calvin Johnson let the ball slip through his hands. A couple of plays put the Packers inside his FG range, but I think he mis-hit it and also had it partially blocked. The end of the game was crazy, and the Lions ALMOST did enough to lose it, but not quite. My wife, of all people, noticed the Lions' new right tackle Michael Ola, who I thought played a pretty good game overall (turns out that was only as a pass blocker as he sucked big-time in the run game). The Lions' DBs were good for the most part, which should come as little surprise considering Rashean Mathis was out. I thought Nevin Lawson was acceptable (although he probably deserved to get called for PI a couple of times) and Butler was also solid when called on, which is remarkable considering he was watching the games from his couch last week.
I don't like watching the Lions lose, but I hope for their sake that they finish with a record in the bottom 3, because they desperately need a top tier player. OT is probably the boringest but rightest solution, but I'm hoping for a QB.
I really should be writing more about the Wolverines. The Lions suck, the Wings are kind of meh right now, and the Pistons are barely getting started. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are in the midst of their best season since Lloyd Carr hung up the clipboard (unless you want to count Hoke's counterfeit 11-2 campaign in 2011). Their losses? An opening loss in a tough matchup, playing in Utah, and the flukiest crap you ever want to see (or don't want to see) when the punter fumbled it right to a Spartan defender who ran it into the end zone as time expired.
I've missed Michigan's last several games, for various reasons but mainly because I've found myself very busy on Saturday afternoons. This is kind of a shame, because Jabrill Peppers is turning into Charles Woodson. He's Michigan's best defender - he covers well, tackles well, slips past blocks like they weren't even there. He's also a very useful offensive player, with 6 carries for 24 yds and 2 tds, plus 3 catches for 38 yards. He'll run as a wildcat QB, a decoy on a play fake, or line up as a traditional RB or WR. He's also Michigan's main kick & punt returner. He hasn't been the ball-hawk that Woodson was, but he's getting on the field A LOT and making a positive impact. He'll be a Heisman candidate in a year or two.
Jim Harbaugh is targeting the state of New Jersey in a big way. Since the Class of 2011, only twice has a school inked three of the top-seven prospects in the Garden State -- Rutgers in 2011 and Penn State in 2015. To date, the Wolverines also have commitments from three of the top seven in ESPN 300 end Ronald Johnson Jr., athlete Jordan Fuller and receiver Brad Hawkins. While that is quite a haul in itself, and with the Wolverines seemingly leading for No. 1 overall player Rashan Gary and top running back Kareem Walker, Michigan could have an all-time run in New Jersey. If Harbaugh pulls it off, Michigan would not only be sending a national message by inking Gary and Walker, but also putting a stake down in the Garden State that could create a future tidal wave of momentum in the state.
If Harbaugh can pull off that NJ coup, this could be the best class of recruits Michigan has had in a LONG, long time. And that's saying something, because Hoke & Rich Rod had some good classes come in. Rashan Gary, the #1 overall prospect, is a big DT who could turn your defense from being kinda good to top 5 in college. Every school in the NCAA seems to have extended an offer, but Michigan was his first visit, whatever that's worth. A strong finish to the season would go a long way toward convincing the top recruits that Michigan is back.
***
After stringing together a couple of losses in a row, I have some clearer ideas about who the Pistons are and I have some concerns. The ball movement has never been good this year, but it was especially clear in the last 2 games that this offense is sick. It seems that PG Reggie Jackson and Coach/GM Stan Van Gundy are at philosophical differences on how the offense should be run. The Freep's Vince Ellis wrote piece on this very issue, with Reggie Jackson criticizing the pace of play and SVG bemoaning the lack of passing.
They're both right, although I'd say SVG is MORE right. This is a young team playing at one of the slower paces in the league. They need to run more. On the other hand, you can't always run, and the play on offense has been very selfish. Even facing set defenses, Jackson's primary complaint, this offense should be performing a lot better. They aren't finding open shooters. They pound the air out of the ball and then either jack up a contested jumper or drop it off to Morris and watch HIM take a contested jumper, hoping Drummond gets the rebound.
I'm hoping they can come to some sort of compromise. If they can, with Jennings on track to come back next month, I think the Pistons make the playoffs. If Reggie Jackson and SVG remain at odds and the ball movement doesn't improve, they're headed back to the lottery. It's that simple. The defense is a lot better than I expected they'd be, and that will be enough to win them some games. But the offense is so unhealthy the best they can hope for is middle of the road, the way things are currently going.
Last night's game in Portland featured one of the strangest turns of fortune I've ever seen in an NBA game. The Trailblazers owned the Pistons for 3 quarters. Just check the scoring by quarter: 1st quarter - POR 32, DET 22; 2nd quarter - POR 25, DET 24; 3rd quarter - POR 35, DET 32. Portland really only killed them in the first quarter, but they still won every quarter going into the 4th. And for once it wasn't due to Detroit's offense. Marcus Morris and KCP weren't having their best shooting games, but the team as a whole was shooting about 44% from the field. The defense was letting them down. It wasn't the worst defense I'd ever seen, but they were definitely leaving Portland's shooters too much space and Portland wasn't missing. Then the 4th quarter rolled around and the script, as they say, flipped.
Drummond had been scooping up rebounds and hitting hook shots all day. Portland's interior defense isn't particularly strong, and Drummond had already put on a couple of moves that actually reminded me of Hakeem a little bit (settle down) - a quick spin into a hook shot, and then an up & under dunk on the very next possession. But really that's all Detroit had going. Then the defense put the clamps on defensively. Portland started turning it over, the Pistons got some stops as well, and like the Grinch's heart, the basket grew 3 sizes for Reggie Jackson. Jackson was 10-11 in the quarter (2-2 from long range), and 4-4 from the stripe. Isiah Thomas had a 25-point quarter in the '88 Finals (on a sprained ankle, no less). Wil Bynum (Wil Bynum???) exceeded that mark in 2009 with a 26-point quarter, and Reggie has now matched Bynum's team record for points in a quarter.
The numbers for this game are unbelievable. Reggie ended up with 40, 5 & 5. Drummond ended up with a Wilt Chamberlain-like 29 & 27 with 3 blocks and 2 steals. KCP & Morris didn't shoot well, but they combined for 7 steals and their defense was crucial down the stretch. Between the turnovers and the offensive rebounds, Detroit ended up with 20 extra shot attempts for the game, and they managed to outscore Portland 41-11 in the 4th quarter. Drummond should've ended up with 30 pts, but he missed 5 out of 6 FTs when the Blazers went into Hack-a-Dre with 2:30 left.
The Pistons are now 5-1 overall, looking down at most of the East. Drummond is averaging 20 & 20, and actually looks to be IMPROVING. Reggie Jackson isn't managing the offense as well as I'd like, but he's scoring it pretty well at 23 ppg and his shooting numbers are pretty good (.455/.455/.794). If they were to hold the All Star game in November, Drummond and Jackson would be starting. Keeping this all in perspective, there are 76 games left to play. On the other hand, this is Detroit's roughest stretch of road games all year and they've started it 2-0.
I didn't check the Phoenix game because I had family stuff, but it looked for everything like a boring, everyone scores type of win. Which is great, don't get me wrong, but a bit less fun to write about that Drummond & Jackson putting up video game numbers in a wacky 4th quarter blowout. Anyway, the NBA scheduled the Pistons a loss tonight, we'll see how that plays out.
I had the afternoon off yesterday, so it was while I was driving home that I heard on the radio what was going on in the Lions' front office. It was a bloodbath of Neesonian proportions. GM Martin Mayhew was gone, President of Operations Tom Lewand was gone, and the quote I heard was "the bosses are walking the halls, looking for people to fire". Holy crap. That sounds like a scene straight out of Wolfenstein 3D.
This is an exciting time for Lions fans. To understand why, you have to go back to the Millen era. The owner at the time was William Clay Ford, current owner Martha Ford's husband. Millen sucked. He continued to suck. He made it sound good at times, but everything he did sucked. His reign over the team was a gigantic, 8-year long face palm. There were rumblings from the fan base much earlier, but the formal beginning of the FIRE MILLEN movement was probably the so-called "Millen Man March", held on 12/18/05 prior to the game that day against the Bengals. Despite enormous fan outcry, Matt Millen managed to cling to his job for nearly 3 more years, until Ford's son spoke out to the media during the 0-16 season, pressuring the owner to finally take action.
The mechanism from the Millen years somehow remained in place, however. Lewand and Mayhew were formerly Millen's underlings, and there was a lot of concern that some of his bad calls were also their bad calls. There was also a lot of concern that the issue with the team was the Ford ownership. The Lions had been a successful team in the '50s (3 championships & 1 runner-up), but they've only made the playoffs 11 times and won only 1 playoff game since Ford bought the team in 1963. Fans breathed a guilty sigh of relief when WCF Sr. died last spring, but many wondered whether the new ownership would be any different. Millen was fired in 2008, but his stink continued to swirl around the team as his replacements made many of the same types of mistakes that he did. Yesterday we saw the difference between Martha Ford and her late husband: Martha. Don't. Play.
None of the coaching staff were fired (because, why bother?), but it sounds like the Fords are going to utterly clean house as soon as this season is over. It sounds to me like the interim GM Sheldon White might actually be a decent GM, which is unfortunate because Martha Ford cannot afford to keep any holdovers from the previous administration. That was her husband's mistake. So, ruling him out, there have been a number of other names I've heard floated out there for the new GM position. The ones I liked best?
Mike Lombardi (no relation to the Lions' former OC), a former scout and GM and current assistant to Belichek's coaching staff in NE
Nick Caserio, another New England guy, currently the Director of Player Personnel
Lombardi is the only one of these names who has a retread-y feel, although I think he was hosed during his previous stints as a GM - first by Al Davis calling shots in Oakland, second by getting axed in Cleveland before he had a chance to do anything. The other two guys are player personnel guys on teams with a history of great personnel moves.
***
A big question, maybe THE big question, is with a new GM, wherefore art thou, Matt Stafford? Once it became clear this year that a) the Lions were going to end up with a high draft pick, and b) Matt Stafford was never going to be a good QB, I started to advocate drafting a QB in the first round of this draft. New GMs like to put their stamp on the team (as Mayhew did with Stafford), and Stafford's contract gets increasingly expensive but also non-guaranteed following this season.
Stafford has always had the talent to be one of the greats, but apparently he never put in the work. Former Lions DE Lawrence Jackson said as much this past spring, and Stafford's play this year has born that out. Stafford has all the physical tools, but he hasn't put in the mental work. This may have cost Joe Lombardi his job. I'm not one to defend Lombardi - his play-calling was atrocious, and the offensive scheme he tried to implement did NOT fit the players here - but a big reason why his offense didn't work was because Stafford wasn't able to comprehend the intricacies of it, and Lombardi couldn't dumb it down enough for Stafford to understand. This was coming from Lombardi, so take it with a grain of salt, but it fits what I see on the field.
Stafford sucks at reading a defense and finding an open receiver when the blitz is on. He doesn't make the players around him better, and he rarely shows the type of fire you want from the guy supposedly leading your offense. His stats look impressive, but as Jackson said, they're counterfeit. If the new GM sees the same thing I do, Stafford could potentially get cut outright, traded, or we might keep him on and eat that huge salary increase while developing his replacement.
The Pistons were one of 2 undefeated teams in the East, playing an 0-3 Pacers team that is a bit like a doughnut - all the goodness is on the outside, nothing in the middle. This looked like a perfect team for Detroit to exploit and walk away with an easy win. Naturally, they were blown out.
There are really only three things worth talking about from this game - Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson the point guard?, and the bench. So, not to be accused of burying the lede...
Andre Drummond - 25 pts on 12-17 shooting, 29 rebs (11 Off), 3 stls, 1 blk
Drummond was an absolute beast. He could not be handled by anybody on Indy's roster. If a rebound was near him, he got it. If a Piston missed a shot, he was often there to tip it in. His post game looked better than ever. In fact, I wanted the Pistons to run more plays for him in the low block. Most of his buckets came off of put-backs or tip-ins, and most of the rest came off of lobs. When he did post up, he was about 50%. Drummond attempted only 2 FTs (he attempted at least 10 in the other 3 games), which was largely a product of the way Detroit used him on offense. More post-ups would equal more FTs (you know the offense is failing when you'd rather Drummond shoot FTs than anyone else on the court take a shot). Also, I don't trust Reggie Jackson to run the PNR effectively right now (more on this later). So, despite the fact that Drummond catching a lob is a more reliable shot, I wish they'd posted him up more.
Reggie Jackson, PG? - 20 pts on 8-20 shooting, 6 asts, 6 tov, 1 stl, 1 blk Jackson was the next most effective scorer after Drummond, but that's not saying much. You need to score more than 20 points on 20 shot attempts. And when Drummond has a game like he had in this one, the PG should NOT lead the team in shot attempts. Reggie's inability to run a cohesive offense has been a storyline all year. He just doesn't get it. It's not that he looks for his own shot too often, it's that he looks for it ALL THE TIME. And that's only a small part of the problem.
6 turnovers is good if you're a baker, bad if you're a point guard. Most of Reggie's turnovers were off of "self-inflicted steals". What I mean by that is, yes, the defender made a play on the ball, but only because the Piston PG basically put the defender in position to make the play and telegraphed where the ball was going. I keep holding out hope that Jackson will become a better PG as he learns the offense, but the kinds of mistakes he's making are not encouraging. I usually don't have a problem with shoot-first PGs, except when there's a much better option. In this case there ABSOLUTELY is a much better option in Andre Drummond, yet Jackson plays as though he is the first, second, and third option in the offense. His orientation is flipped from what it should be as a PG. That has to change, or his contract will be a waste.
the bench
I'll include Stan Van Gundy in this category, although I primarily mean the subs. The Pistons might have the worst bench unit in the NBA. The 2nd quarter began with the Pistons up 30-24 and all 5 starters were resting. 4:47 later, the Pistons were down 30-44 and the starters were forced to come back early to staunch the bleeding. I don't want to put this ENTIRELY on the reserves, but the starting unit had an average Plus/Minus of +3.2 and the bench unit averaged a -12.7. Indiana's bench outscored Detroit's bench 43-2. Whenever that happens, you're going to lose.
A particularly telling sequence came with about 9 minutes left to play. Detroit was down 13 points when Rodney Stuckey was called for a flagrant 1 on Stanley Johnson. It was a legit call, dangerous foul, but still this was a big break for Detroit. They get 2 shots and the ball, which meant they could cut the deficit to 8, the lowest it had been since early in the 2nd quarter. What happened? Well, Stanley missed his two FTs, Anthony Tolliver missed his 3pt attempt, and the long rebound went to Indiana, who then knocked down a jumper. That's a 7 point swing right there.
Van Gundy is partly culpable in all of this. The turning point in this game was Indiana's 20-0 run to start the 2nd quarter. Stan didn't call his first timeout until Indiana had scored 10 straight, and he didn't make any substitutions. He didn't call his second timeout until Indiana had scored another 10, at which point he finally brought the starters back in. That's a 5 min stretch of time where the opponent out-scored you 20-0, yet you only called 1 timeout and made no personnel adjustments? That is bad coaching. Outlook
The overall team performance was pretty soft. The defense was usually late to close out on a shooter, and the passing was as bad as I've ever seen it. It reminded me of a game when Stuckey & Knight were sharing PG duties a couple of years ago, I can't remember the opponent. Almost every pass was tipped, batted, or otherwise affected by the defense. I had thought our PG play was supposed to be a lot better.
The team's weaknesses were more glaring in this game than they had been in the previous 3, although the signs were there.
Our PG doesn't effectively run the offense
We lack a consistent 1-on-1 scoring threat
Our bench is terrible
I think Drummond can be that consistent 1-on-1 scoring threat as his post game develops. Marcus Morris was covered by Paul George in this game and was clearly out-matched, but I think most of the time he can provide that as well. I'm starting to get worried about weakness #2, and weakness #1 terrifies me. We invested a lot in Jackson as the PG of the future. We swung a trade that gutted the team last year to get him, we signed him to a pretty nice second contract ($16M/yr for 5 years), and in doing so, announced that we would be moving on from Brandon Jennings at PG. Jennings was having a pretty good year last year, until he blew out his Achilles tendon. I'm not calling Reggie Jackson a wash just yet, but he definitely is not a "natural" PG.
Short of praying guys like Bullock and Stanley Johnson take a leap, I see no easy answers for the bench unit problem either. The only positive there is Brandon Jennings is expected back before Christmas. If that holds, we can cut Blake or send Dinwiddie back to the D League, and the bench unit will have at least SOMEONE who can hit a shot from time to time. But until Jennings returns, the Pistons will be very up & down.
The Lions have reached a status with me that they haven't had in a while. There were a number of seasons where I would check out of games REALLY early. I'd watch a quarter & a half and say, man, I don't need to put myself through this again. They haven't been there for about 4-5 years, but those Marinelli days are back. I missed most of the first half because I was at church. I caught the last few minutes of the half, watched the 3rd quarter and the first series of the 2nd quarter and then switched it to HGTV for my wife's benefit and for my sanity. Ironically, the show that was on at that point was Flea Market Flip - a show were two teams pick up garbage and turn it into something worth owning. Maybe Mayhew should watch too.
The thing that killed me about the Lions' performance in London was they looked everything like a team that had beaten themselves before the coin toss. They blew blocks, missed tackles, committed stupid penalties, dropped passes, missed wide open receivers, took sacks instead of trying to escape... Chris Carter had it nailed pretty good with his comments on NFL Countdown. The Lions' effort yesterday was disgraceful. They are too talented a team to be 1-7, but everyone seems to be going through the motions in about as half-assed a way as you can imagine.
Autobiographical side note: The level of enthusiasm and focus of these Lions remind me of the JV team I played on when I was a junior. I was relegated to JV my junior year because I was buried behind 3 seniors at my position (defensive end) on the Varsity team. That JV team had an embarrassingly bad loss in week 1 (I hadn't been relegated yet), and it didn't take me too long to realize that there were only about 1 or 2 people on that team who were locked in. Everybody else seemed to be jerking around or they didn't get it. I would say at that point that I was a SLIGHTLY above average talent at DE, but on that team I looked like JJ Watt.
My first game with them I had 2 sacks and something like 11 tackles. That's a TON for a DE, comparable to an LB getting 20 (the leading tackler among DEs this year is Kerry Wynn, who is averaging 5.1 tackles per game and hasn't had more than 8 tackles in any game). I figured I'd get called back up to Varsity after a couple more games, especially after one of the starting Varsity DEs got injured. The problem was that while I remained one of the best players on the team (certainly the best defender), my play deteriorated as the season went on. My effort was still there, primarily, but I made a lot more mental mistakes. It's like I'd been infected with whatever afflicted everyone else on that JV team. I'd been bitten. I wasn't a zombie yet, but I was starting to turn. This Lions team has that same look. The offensive line has been The Walking Dead for the past few weeks, maybe all year, and the virus has spread to everyone else. In short, the Lions are dead in the water. They could potentially wake back up if some of these new coaches can light a fire under them, but I'm guessing they win 1 or 2 more games at the most. Until they show they're invested in the games they're playing, I'm not going to be invested in watching. I'll check them out for a quarter or two and keep watching if it's worth it, turn it to HGTV if it's not. It's pretty disappointing that we've reached this point with only half the season done.
With the season essentially over, the only thing to really discuss are what changes need to made for next season. First and foremost, Martin Mayhew has to go. He's been an abysmal drafter, other than that 2013 draft, and his misread of the Ndamukong Suh situation was VERY costly. Not to mention the whole situation was his fault in the first place for the way he restructured Suh's contract twice. Mayhew only looks good in comparison with Millen, who had so many blown top 10 picks that he deserves his own wing in the NFL Hall of Shame. The NFL trade deadline is tomorrow and Mayhew seemed to think that the Lions would be buyers which is, to use his own phrasing, "comical". So, #1 - Mayhew OUT. They can chuck him right after the deadline up to the day after the Lions' last regular season game, anything later would be tardy.
The second thing, and I've been thinking this basically all year, is Stafford has to go. He's not mobile enough in the pocket or clever enough to read the defense. The sacks are at least 1/4 his fault. He's inaccurate (always has been) and doesn't have a winning fire, despite what Mayhew seems to think. I like the idea of Memphis's Paxton Lynch, a 6'7" 245 lb athlete who can run it or air it out. I haven't seen a lot of film on him though, and there are other guys to look at, but he's on my radar as a replacement for Stafford who might enter this draft.
I'm undecided on Caldwell. I liked him as an alternative to Schwartz last year, but overall I think he's a neutral coach. Not especially terrible, but not outstanding either. The Lions could keep him or fire him and I wouldn't feel strongly either way, at this point. If they decide to let Caldwell go, the ideal replacement might be Teryl Austin, the current D Coordinator. Other top assistants in the NFL: Josh McDaniels, OC of the Pats was a HC in Denver for a minute and hopefully learned from mistakes made there. He's been OC for all of New England's championships, and called plays for one of the best offenses in history, that 2007 team that won every game except the Super Bowl. Todd Haley, the Steeler's OC also has some head coaching experience. A guy like Pat Shurmur, Philly's OC might be a good option as well. He's a solid OC, and he had the tough luck of having his only HC opportunity so far come in Cleveland. Plus, he was born in the area and has plenty of Michigan connections. Indianapolis's HC Chuck Pagano looks to be on the hot seat, although most of their problems are related to the personnel moves the team made this past offseason. He's a guy I could see Detroit firing Caldwell for.
That's it for now. I'm pretty tired of even THINKING of the Lions.
***
On the other hand, Michigan won in a stunner on Saturday, and the Pistons are now at 3-0 after fighting past Chicago in OT. Both of these are legit wins. Chicago is still one of the top teams in the East, eking out Cleveland in their opener, and Minnesota was a winning team playing in an emotional game, after their beloved head coach stepped down for health reasons. Michigan has a couple of games I'm penciling in as wins (Indiana and Rutgers), and then finishes the season with a couple of pretty tough games, Penn State and OSU.
The 3-0 Pistons look a LOT better than I thought they'd be, although the shooting hasn't come around yet. So far they've beaten Atlanta, who finished 60-22 last year, Utah, who finished 38-44, and Chicago, who went 50-32. This year those teams are a combined 8-0 against teams other than the Pistons. These were not fluky wins, and this isn't a counterfeit win streak. They earned their 3-0 record, unlike Toronto, who've played 3 shaky teams, or Minnesota's 2-0 record, which has come against basement teams.
So far it appears that the Pistons are hanging their hat on their defense, which FEELS right but actually hasn't been the case since 2008. This game went into OT and yet neither team reached 100 pts. Marcus Morris absolutely WORKED over Tony Snell in this one, Reggie Jackson had some nice drives opened up by rolling with Drummond, but no one else for Detroit looked special on offense. Drummond had a 20/20 game, but most of his points were on putbacks. I will say this - his foul shot looks a lot better this year, and his post game is taking baby steps to the point where it might go from a wrinkle in Detroit's offense to a feature.
The defense is strong, though. The worst defenders (who actually play) are probably Blake, Tolliver, and Meeks - who is out now for 3-4 months. Ilyasova isn't any great shakes on that end either, except he draws a LOT of charges, so that makes up for some of his 1-on-1 deficiencies. KCP looks like a legit stopper now, which was his rep/not the reality for his first 2 seasons. Stanley Johnson has looked like a capable defender, which for a rookie is like saying he's 1st Team All Defense. Morris has been good, Reggie Jackson has been adequate, and Drummond has had a LOT more luck closing off the paint with Monroe gone.
We don't know anything yet. Not really. The Pistons could be riding high and fall apart in their next game. They've been riding Marcus Morris on offense, and that might not be sustainable. They will need to adapt as the season goes on. But early indications are promising.
The Pistons opened their season last night against the Hawks, who went 60-22 last year to lead the East. The game was in Atlanta, where the Hawks went 35-6. I don't know what the betting line was going into the game, but it would've heavily favored Atlanta.
The Pistons actually started this thing out on fire, most of the work being done by Marcus Morris. KCP and Ilyasova got into it as well, and the Pistons did a great job of rebounding and closing out on Atlanta's three-point shooters. I thought Dennis Schroder and Millsap were getting the most done for Atlanta, and Jeff Teague to a lesser extent (the Pistons guards struggled to prevent penetration), but basically everyone else was held in check.
What's interesting is the Pistons didn't play particularly well on offense. KCP was really the only Piston who shot it well. Drummond drew some fouls and managed to score it some, but his post game left much to be desired. Reggie Jackson over-dribbled a lot, didn't see open shooters at times, and sometimes dribbled himself into a closet at the end of a shot clock. And when the bench took over, Atlanta thrived.
That said, Detroit excelled at things you might expect them to excel at - defense, rebounding, and hustle plays. They just haven't excelled at those things since Ben Wallace had a pulse. It really was beautiful to watch. For all his foibles, the offense moved better with Reggie Jackson in the game. He had 7 defensive rebounds, which is a TON for a PG, and those tend to lead to transition buckets. Drummond was battling between 2 and 3 Hawks at a time on the offensive glass and still managed to collect 8 offensive rebounds of the 13 available when he was on the court. While his play was a bit up & down, Stanley Johnson offered the most of any Piston coming off the bench.
Try not to get too hyped yet. Home opener vs. Utah is tonight, then 80 more games to follow.
***
Postscript, 10/29:The Pistons' home opener was last night, and while noteworthy, I didn't think it was worth its own post. So, I'm piggybacking off of the post of their first game.
This game was a bit different from the Atlanta game, but same ultimate result. Utah was a mediocre Western Conf team who always seems to play us tough. Additionally, they have some nice pieces, like Rudy Gobert, Favors, and Hayward. I was a bit worried about this one, and rightfully so. The Pistons started the game out behind, and they never really took control of this one until the very end.
I thought Steve Blake looked way better than he did in the first game. He definitely looked like the better PG in this one, when comparing him with Jackson. He did a better job of finding teammates and getting Drummond involved. Reggie was mainly looking for his own shot first, and that definitely hurt the offensive flow. He shot it better this game, but he's going to have to prioritize making plays for others or he won't work as a PG in this league. He almost cost them the game with a costly turnover, up by 1 with around 40 seconds left. Fortunately, KCP would bail them out by getting a key defensive rebound on the next possession, hitting his FTs, and then blocking Hood's three-point attempt that would've tied the game.
Ilyasova did a good job on the defensive end drawing charges, but he was absolutely owned by Favors in the matchup department. Drummond looked like he was gaining more confidence in his post game, although he had a couple tough luck misses and wasn't always rewarded. When he realizes he can back anyone down in this league, this will get a lot better. Morris suddenly looks like the guy he was in Kansas (the better twin), which is a nice surprise.
Stanley Johnson has been nice. Not great, but nice. Basing this on only 2 games (which is dangerous), I think he could go one of 2 ways: either his offensive game develops along the way and he becomes a Jimmy Butler-type, or his offense never goes beyond "mediocre" and he becomes a solid role player. Really could go either way at this point. I'm definitely looking forward to their next game tomorrow. Certainly moreso than the Lions' next game.
I've been off the blog since the Debacle in Seattle (I like calling it that, btw. Not exactly rhymey, but it has a homonymnity to it). I watched a good chunk of the Lions' loss to Arizona, but I eventually switched it to something else as it became quite clear that the Lions were laying yet another turd, and I didn't want to cast a pall over the upcoming vacation. We - my wife, I, and another couple we're good friends with - went to France for a week & a half. It was great, and I was virtually sports free for the trip. This was a good thing, since the Michigan-Michigan State game would've probably increased my blood pressure to dangerous levels. The Lions managed to get their first win while we were gone, but I didn't believe an OT win over the Bears to be anything to crow about.
Anyway, the trip was great. I experienced an overload of art, architecture, and culture that was somehow simultaneously overwhelming and yet not enough. Then, back to the USA, where "culture" consists of cracking open a microbrew while watching your football. Not that there's anything wrong with that. If you can't enjoy the simple things as well, you can't be a complete person.
I was guardedly optimistic in my approach to the Vikings game. I felt like they were probably the better team, but coming off a win and playing at home could have boost the Lions needed (spoiler: it wasn't). After getting into the end zone on their first two drives, the Detroit offense went dry. REALLY dry. As in they had 1 drive that went over 8 yards (29 yds total, resulting in a punt) until there was less than 4 minutes to play. As in the offense produced 3 more points in the game, largely thanks to a fumble gifted to the defense by a botched handoff.
The play-calling became staid and failed to compensate for the increased pressure being put on Stafford. The offensive line was absolutely atrocious. To be honest, while the players have certainly failed to hold up their end, the coaching has been horrendous. Much has been made of the scheme/personnel mismatch on the offensive line. The zone blocking scheme brought in by Lombardi (presumably because that's what he was familiar with in New Orleans) is better suited to smaller, quicker linemen. The Lions have been acquiring larger, less mobile linemen better suited to a man-blocking scheme. Additionally, the communication on the line - picking up blitzes, protection assignments, etc - has been as bad as it possibly could be. Stafford was hit several times on Sunday by an unblocked rusher, while offensive linemen on the side away from pressure watched the defense opposite them back into coverage. On one play, Riley Reiff doubled down on the DT and let the DE get an unimpeded rush! That's not even a blitz, it's just failing to block.
I've been waiting for the axe to fall on Lombardi since last year. This should've been done a while ago, and I feared Caldwell was too married to his guy, but I guess failing to punch it in on 3 tries 6 inches from the goal line convinced him. The OC Lombardi was fired, along with both the offensive line coach AND the assistant OL coach. That is what I call "scorching the earth".
There is some debate as to whether Jim Caldwell fired his 3 underlings under his own volition or after being pressured by Martin Mayhew or Tom Lewand. I think this move was 100% Caldwell. I'd like to think, anyway. Caldwell HAD to have been looking sideways at Lombardi all season after the poor job he did last year. I think the ultimatum came after the Cardinals game. Lombardi moved to calling plays from the box last week, a move that smacked of desperation, and the win over Chicago probably extended his life an extra game. Calling from the box this week clearly made no difference, as the offense looked as bad as ever.
The only frustration is Caldwell's obliviousness. The quote that caught my eye was when he said the Lions were "running out of time". The correct way to phrase that was "they ran out of time several weeks ago". This move comes too late to save the season. I thought legitimately Caldwell could've axed Lombardi after the Denver game (0-3) and no one would've batted an eye. The season was still salvageable at that point. The Seattle game was probably Lombardi's worst game. Looking purely at the results, the Lions only scored 3 points on offense, despite getting some pretty good field position after a muffed punt and a fumble-sack. Stafford managed to stay pretty upright, only getting hit 3 times and suffering no sacks. Yet the offense only managed 256 yards. The blown "batting" non-call at the end of the game overshadowed what a bad job the offense did. At 0-4, the Lions weren't QUITE mathematically eliminated, but close enough that they should have started making some "panic moves" if they really had any expectations of making the playoffs.
I fear that the 2 line coaches were largely collateral damage from Lombardi's insistence at running a bad scheme for his personnel. Sure, I've been pretty displeased with the communication on the line and probably these guys were to blame in part, but I don't know how promoting the TE coach to be the OL coach helps at all.
The guy replacing Lombardi has the unlikely name of Jim Bob Cooter. It sounds more like the name of a backyard mechanic than a dude who got a 35 on his ACT and was a 4.0 student at Tennessee. By all accounts he is very intelligent and a quick study, and he'll need to be as he's only 31 and taking the OC job for the first time in his career. There's certainly not enough time to implement a new system, but my hope is the play-calling and the protection schemes will improve. Cooter was one of Peyton Manning's favorites, and Manning was sad to see him go. The way bloggers and columnists around Detroit repeat that phrase reeks a bit of desperation, but the fact is that Manning thought very highly of Cooter. Take that for what it's worth.
This season is over. At this point, the team is playing for pride, developing youth (5 of their 6 or 7 regular O-linemen are under 25 years old), and finding something to build on for next season. After the development of the O-line, draft position is of particular interest to me. The Lions are currently in the pole position to land the #1 pick, although their schedule gets much easier in the 2nd half of the season.
***
Mayhew SHOULD have half an eye on the QB prospects coming down the pike. I don't know if he WILL, since he drafted Stafford #1 overall and this team/town/front office seems ready to label Matt Stafford the best QB ever to don Honolulu Blue. Unfortunately, picking the "best Lions QB" is like picking the best apple out of a bushel of rotten apples. Stafford's stats are nice and his arm can impress at times, but it is mainly fool's gold. Stafford has a first round arm and a 4th round brain. He takes unnecessary sacks, misreads defenses, and his accuracy is spotty. He's mediocre. If the Lions want to move forward, they'll need to improve that position. Stafford's on the books for 2 more years, and his salary jumps next year by about $5M/yr.
Ideally the Lions would find a trade partner, swap Stafford for a solid backup and a CB, and then use their high draft pick to pick the next QB of the future. More likely the Lions are saddled with that bloated salary for the next 2 seasons, look around frantically at their options, and then ultimately hold their nose and swallow down whatever it costs to keep Stafford around. Hopefully they see the light and choose to act now (or now-ish), when they have the highest potential to do something about it.
Unfortunately for Detroit (or perhaps fortunately, as I think the Lions may end up picking outside the top 2), this is not a draft that has an out & out favorite for the top QB, unlike last year. I'm not sure who the top guy is. Trevone Boykin from TCU is the most accomplished, stats-wise, but TCU's system really inflates passing numbers. I trust the numbers of Paxton Lynch from Memphis a bit more, and he's got ideal size for the NFL at 6'7", 245 lbs. I'll have to watch some tape. I'm more familiar with the top Big Ten guys - Connor Cook, Cardale Jones, and Christian Hackenberg - and maybe familiarity breeds contempt, because I don't think I'd take any of them with a top 10 pick.
The season's not over (technically) and Mayhew could definitely go a different direction in the draft, but he SHOULD be looking at one of those guys. We'll see.
Some teams are content to lose a game in normal fashion. Often a team will show up to play and get beaten in a regular, ordinary sort of way. Not the Lions. Not last night. Detroit's loss last night in Seattle was a special, evil sort of loss. It's the kind of loss that can take the soul of a fan away and turn it into one of those withered, pitiful creatures stuck in Ursula's Garden of Souls. Yes, I just made a Little Mermaid reference. I'm clearly distraught.
The Lions had mounted their best drive of the night, down by 3 with the clock winding down. The play-by-play guy was Mike Tirico, who is from Michigan and lives in Ann Arbor (and thus should've known better), had brought up Stafford's lack of success on the road against winning teams about 5 or 6 times, suggesting that THIS might be the game he gets off the schneid (Seattle didn't have a winning record, but nobody disputes that they ARE good). It was 3rd and 1 & a half on the 12 yard line with 1:51 to go in the game. Failure to convert would have meant attempting a FG to tie and then Seattle gets the ball back with time. For some reason I felt optimistic, which goes to show what I know. Then, THIS happened:
I hope they call a pass play, they've never been able to pick up short yardage when they needed to all game... Oh good, a pass play... Nice protection... CALVIN'S OPEN... HE'S GOING TO SCORE... YEE-NNNOOOOOOOAaaaaaah crap... No chance he broke the plane, right? Nope, not even a question. That was my internal dialogue, almost word for word. Then I started to wonder how it could've happened differently. I think probably what Calvin should've done was go air-born, Superman-style, over the defender and into the end zone. Kind of like what Cam Newton did a couple of weeks ago. If he does that, he makes it. There were 3 defenders around, so Calvin needed to either protect the ball and bowl through, or else he needed to fly. He tried to do something in between, and that cost him. I can't blame him TOO much for what happened (Chancellor made a truly great play on the ball), except he's supposed to be on Another Level, and if he's to make any type of "Best WR in Football" claim, he gets in the end zone here.
The next part is where it gets crazy. The ball was bouncing toward the back of the end zone, and Seattle's TJ Wright ushered it the rest of the way out. I didn't know this at the time, but that is called "batting" and it's illegal. Detroit should've been awarded the ball on the 1. Instead, the ref stated that the play wasn't intentional (even though it CLEARLY was, and Wright admitted as much, unsurprisingly unaware of the obscure rule). The NFL's VP of Officiating Dean Blandino disagreed with the Back Judge's opinion that it wasn't intentional, and stated that while you could argue that batting the ball didn't really affect the play (the ball was almost out already and no Lion was close enough to recover it), the batting penalty should've been called and the Lions should've gotten the ball at the 1 yard line. Based on how many of these calls have gone against Detroit in the past (100% against, if my records are correct), the Lions are LONG overdue for one of these to go in their favor.
However, much like the uncalled pass interference in their playoff loss to the Cowboys, while this penalty swung the game away from Detroit and gifted it to their opponent, calling the penalty would've given the Lions something they didn't really earn (despite my belief that karmically, they deserve it). Johnson called it best. He can't fumble there. That just can't happen. And the game wasn't over. If the Lions had stuffed Seattle on the ensuing 3rd & 2, they could've gotten the ball back with about 30 seconds and no timeouts. Not ideal, especially against the Legion of Boom defense, but there was a sliver of a chance. Instead, Seattle drew up a nice pass play as the Lions were gearing up to stuff a run, Wilson found a wide open guy, and that was that.
Incidentally, Mike Tirico (who, again, is from Michigan and should know better), proceeded to say a whole bunch of stuff that made me feel worse about the loss than I already did. I can't remember specific phrases, but... let me use a hypothetical scenario to illustrate: imagine your best friend is dying and you're rushing to get to his bedside before he passes, but there's an accident on the freeway and you arrive hours late. A mutual friend comes to you, knowing you feel terrible and events beyond your control delayed your arrival, and says, "It's too bad you couldn't get here in time. His last words were for you, asking why weren't you there." Mike Tirico was like the mutual friend in that scenario. I wanted to straight up punch him in the face.
***
I feel like the rest of the game was a completely different event from the final 2 minutes, so that's why I'm treating it as a separate article. It's like looking at a person with a disfigured face. It takes a while to look past the disfiguring feature, so you need to address that first and then look past it to see the whole picture. As bad as this loss was, I need to look at some of the positives.
The Lions' defense was outstanding. Rashean Mathis still can't cover anybody, but overall the defense did everything that was asked of it and more. They held the Seahawks to under 350 yards and only 13 points. They hit Russell Wilson A LOT (credited with 10 QB hits, 6 of them sacks), forced 2 fumbles and recovered 3 (one fumble was a muffed punt, unforced), even returning one fumble recovery for the Lions' lone TD. Wilson managed to extend a lot of plays with his legs, which is what he does, and that led to broken coverage and a higher completion %, but by and large they frustrated the Seattle offense and kept the Lions in striking distance.
Matt Stafford... wasn't... completely atrocious. I would say he sucked for most of the game, but he didn't do anything that was really bad. No sacks, no fumbles, no interceptions. And this was against a REALLY good D. On the other hand, I think that fact was in his head most of the game. I think he was afraid of this defense, and it caused his aim to be off. He was afraid of making a mistake. Prior to the Lions' final drive, Stafford was 18-29 for 130 yards passing (not good). Prior to that final drive, the Lions had only 1 first down in the 2nd half, and that was due to an illegal hands to the face penalty on Seattle. Stafford went 6-6 for 73 yards on the final drive (had Calvin made the end zone, it would've been 74 yards and of course a TD pass), which boosted his numbers into respectability. But, one wonders why Stafford can't seem to get into a rhythm until super late in the game.
If Calvin had managed to find the end zone, the narrative today would be about Stafford coming through in the clutch and finally beating a good team on the road. He reminded me a bit of later-day Bret Favre, who would screw up for the first three quarters and then come back to murder you in the 4th. Favre often got a pass for sucking for most of the game because he would come back and eventually won a lot of those games late. Stafford was nearing that territory last night, but unfortunately he didn't quite make it when Calvin fumbled.
Another guy I've been critical of is OC Joe Lombardi. I thought the 1st quarter was one of the worst-called quarters Lombardi has ever had, but he DID get a little better as the game went on. He called a few more outside running plays that got the RB into space and away from the line. The passing plays seemed well designed, for the most part. Stafford missed a lot of throws he should've made, or he didn't have enough time to let the routes develop. And that brings me to the O line. Our offensive line is probably the worst in football at run blocking. They actually did a decent job in pass protect (only allowed 3 QB hits and 0 sacks), but the run blocking is a serious problem. Missing Warford is a huge issue, as he's their best lineman and possibly the only guy on the line who can pick up a block in space.
I'm actually optimistic that Lombardi might have figured something out in this game. That seems crazy to say, given that the Lions failed to score an offensive TD and only generated 256 yards of offense. I'm not saying Lombardi is going to turn this offense into a juggernaut or anything, but the play calling definitely improved and maybe (Maybe. MAYBE.) this offense will start looking like a credible NFL offense in a game or 2 (maybe).
However, the ultimate story in this game is how the Lions continually find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. They had several penalties that cost the Lions a first down or put them in the hole to start a series of downs. They did manage to take care of the ball for most of the game, but then their best player fumbled it when they needed him most. Epic fail doesn't begin to cover it.
The Lions suffered several costly injuries in the game as well. Eric Ebron was on his way to a solid receiving game (blocking, not so much) when a fallen lineman rolled up on his leg and he tweaked his knee. It could be relatively minor, like a mild sprain, but it could also be an ACL-thing that costs him the season. Tyrunn Walker was the victim of a particularly dirty (and ILLEGAL) block that probably broke his ankle. I'm guessing he's done for the year. Ngata went down a little later with a calf injury. It didn't sound too bad, but Ngata is big and old, and stuff like that becomes chronic at this point. Travis Lewis was also having a spectacular game when he was hurt on punt coverage and had to be helped off. Hopefully we're getting Levy and Warford back this week. I don't know how close Pettigrew is to returning, but I doubt Ebron plays for at least the next 2 weeks. It might be time to start scouring the CFL for a TE and a DT.
The season outlook is... well, the season is basically over 4 weeks in. They can't make the playoffs. Technically, they COULD make the playoffs if they went 11-1 or 10-2 the rest of the way, but there is really no way that happens. Not with this team. Not with this quarterback. If injuries or something were what created this mess and we were suddenly getting someone back, I could see a guy like Rodgers or Brady leading the team on a 10-2 tear. But VERY few others could, and certainly not Stafford. So while the season isn't over, it pretty much is. Work on developing the rookies. Work on Lombardi's offense (or fire Lombardi and work on someone else's offense). Find a way to get a running game. Get creative, because you really don't have anything to lose.
This is the Lions' season tonight. They're facing a TOUGH opponent in the toughest away stadium in the NFL on Monday Night Football. If the Lions lose, they fall to 0-4 and have to face the 3-1 Cardinals 6 days later. If they win, a glimmer of hope would exist, although they still have to face the 3-1 Cardinals next week.
Joique Bell is staying in Detroit as well, but that's less of a disappointment. Bell is CLEARLY not the same guy he was last year. I'm hoping he can recover at some point, but for the time being the Lions are better off with Abdullah getting the (trying to avoid using the very punny phrase "lion's share") bulk of the carries. The offense doesn't NEED Bell, especially as he currently is. But the defense desperately needs Levy. He covers the pass better than any of the Lions' other LBs, he knifes through blocks on running plays and screens to make the play in the backfield. He's the Lions' best tackler. And he has an awesome beard.
With Levy out, the chances of a victory tonight diminish dramatically. There's that much more pressure on the offense to produce, and that much more on the defense to make up for the lack of DeAndre Levy. Seattle will be without Beast Mode MarShawn Lynch, but that actually increases the likelihood of more running plays called for QB Russell Wilson. I can't think of a more necessary player for Detroit in this game than Levy. Ziggy Ansah is probably 2nd most important, and he's been limited all week as well with a groin injury. He's traveling with the team, so I expect he'll play, but he's been taken out of games early twice now. This is a defense that needs to contain Seattle's run game at the edges, and the two best guys we have to do that are out or limited.
Naturally, all eyes are drawn to the Calvin Johnson-Richard Sherman matchup. I haven't watched a Seahawks game yet this year, but their tendency in the past was to use Sherman to eliminate the opponent's best WR, instead of, say, moving him around a bit to give different looks. If Seattle decides to cover Calvin one-on-one with Sherman, which no one has tried yet this year, one of two things will happen: either Calvin will finally take the top off of the defense and beat Sherman deep, or Calvin will be Decoy CJ and keep Sherman occupied far away from the play. The problems with the 2nd scenario are a) We need Calvin to be effective or this offense is pretty dead, and b) I don't trust Stafford to stay away from Decoy Calvin. If CJ is in decoy mode, I'm certain Stafford will try and force a pass into a too-small window and Sherman will end up with it.
The key guys to watch in this game for Detroit are Abdullah on offense and the DEs on defense. The Lions need to get that running game going, and Abdullah has earned himself more carries than he's been getting. On defense, the DEs are who should keep Seattle's read option in check. With Lynch out, Wilson is the biggest running threat on the team. If the DEs do their jobs, the ball stays between the tackles and Seattle probably tries to become more of a passing team than they really are.
You can tell I'm REALLY trying to talk myself into this one.
