Devin Gardner should be done as the starting QB of Michigan (unfortunately, Shane Morris isn't exactly ready, but it's probably still a better move to close the door on Gardner). It's not very fair, since he gets about 2 seconds to get the ball off in an average dropback, but at the same time he's also thrown some terrible passes when he's had adequate protection. Michigan continues to be on the wrong side of the turnover equation, with Gardner contributing 2 interceptions, and backup Shane Morris giving a pick and a fumble, for variety's sake. Worse, the offense was kept entirely out of the end zone and was shut out in the 2nd half, never getting closer than the Utah 38.
The defense looked almost as bad. Despite managing to score the Wolverine's only touchdown, they looked pathetic for most of the game. On one particular score, the Utes lined up on the Michigan 32 and ran a pass play where the receivers ran crossing 5-yard drags. This is usually called a "pick play" because one receiver usually tries to "accidentally" bump into the guy covering the 2nd receiver (it's accidental because if it were on purpose it would be "illegal"... incidentally, when I played in HS I was invariable the guy assigned to run the pick, not catch the ball. This should tell you all you need to know about my skills as a HS receiver). Anyway, this wasn't a pick play because the Utah receiver never bumped off the coverage, Michigan's defense just got lazy in the zone and didn't communicate. As a result, Utah receiver Dres Anderson caught the ball on the Michigan 25 and ran the rest of the way in without being touched.
After the game was basically over (Gardner had been pulled after his 2nd pick for Shane Morris, who completed a couple of passes to Michigan players before deciding to mix it up and throw to the other team), lightning was spotted, rain flooded the field, and the Big House emptied.
I hate it when people live in denial, and I think the bulk of the Michigan fan base have been living there since Brady Hoke came to town. Hopefully Saturday was a wakeup call. Hoke has been pitching a version of Michigan that doesn't exist anymore. Hoke has said all the right things to appeal to this fan base - denigrating OSU, touting Michigan's tradition as a top program, preaching integrity and excellence, etc. What he hasn't done is bring any innovation to the program, and he certainly hasn't brought wins.
And here's the thing about "Tradition". Tradition ceases to be tradition if you don't do it anymore. Michigan's "tradition" as a top program is a lot like my family's tradition of going camping every summer, which we kinda stopped doing when I was in middle school. This hasn't been an elite program for a while. The last time Michigan had even a share of the Big Ten title was in 2004 and the last time Michigan was relevant nationally was 2006 when they were ranked #2 nationally until they lost the OSU game, then got pretty well handled in the Rose Bowl by Pete Carroll's USC Trojans.
In fact, let's look at Michigan's Rase Bowl appearances by decade:
1970's - 5 appearances, 0 wins
1980's - 4 appearances, 2 wins
1990's - 4 appearances, 2 wins
2000's - 3 appearances, 0 wins
2010's - 0 appearances, 0 wins (obviously)
The first thing that stands out is Michigan's lack of success in the Big Game, yielding a .250% record in 16 Rose Bowl appearances, the last win coming in the 1998 game that earned Michigan a share of the National Title. The 2007 game exposed Michigan's program as antiquated, at which point Those In Charge of Things panicked and started a chain of events that lead to Lloyd Carr's departure (the App State game was the dot on the exclamation point that was the 2007 Rose Bowl), Rich Rod's hiring (after missing on Les Miles), Rich Rod's firing, and Hoke's subsequent hiring (after both Jim Harbaugh & Les Miles turned them down), now Hoke is probably gone this year or next.
On the bright side, the defense isn't entirely a lost cause. Yes, out of the 4 offenses they've faced, 2 were cupcakes. Still, no opponent has gained 300 yards on them yet. In fact, Michigan is 8th in yards allowed per game.
This doesn't tell the whole story, since admittedly Michigan has faced a couple of cupcakes. A more accurate picture is shown by looking at Team Efficiencies, which is schedule-adjusted and looks at the value added by the offense, defense, and special teams. Here Michigan ranks at a less-bombastic-but-still-respectable 39th, but offense and special teams both posted negative efficiencies. No surprise there.
Michigan's schedule is uber-weak this year, since the Big Ten thought it would be a good idea to water things down and add Rutgers and Maryland, and luckily we're catching Northwestern and Indiana in one of their off-decades. What I'm saying is this Michigan team is a crappy team that will probably go 7-5 or even 8-4. If they go 8-4, Hoke probably keeps his job. The problem with this is I could coach this team to a 7-5 record, so why pay Hoke a bunch of money to be an empty headset that regurgitates "This Is Michigan" propaganda?
We need to deconstruct the myth. Michigan is an aristocrat, gone broke after the revolution and still clinging to the past. Yes, there is a wonderful history back there, but it has no bearing on the present. Once we all accept that, we can move on, and even possibly win some frickin' games.
I always thought Nussmeier was a head coaching hire. If you're lucky, you'll get your wish and Hoke will be gone. If you're really unlucky, they'll somehow pull out a miracle against OSU and retain him. With their schedule I see them going 7-5 at best, though.
ReplyDeleteI think 7-5 is most likely but really, other than MSU & OSU, who does Michigan lose to? Maybe Penn State? They've won all their games so far, but I don't feel like they're a good team, and it's a home game for Michigan. I feel like that game is a push so far, as bad as Michigan is.
ReplyDeleteNussmeier hasn't exactly run a lights-out offense so far, although he clearly doesn't have the personnel he needs (outside of a couple guys). He might make a better HC than Hoke, but you know Michigan. They want to make a splash, if they can.
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2014/09/24/michigan-football-doug-nussmeier-alabama/16157395/
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is a bit of sour grapes from Saban, who is always ready to throw a player or coach under the bus to make himself look better. But it seems to ring true, at least from what I've seen from Michigan's offense so far. Nussmeier isn't getting it done.