Enough with the depressing BS, the Lions won on Sunday and so did the Tigers, vaulting them into their 4th Central Division title and a 1st round matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles are tough, and they're a lot like that Rangers team the Tigers saw in the 2011 ALCS. Nelson Cruz is back, for one thing, but on top of that this Orioles team features lots of homers, little in the way of team speed, and good relievers. Outside of Chris Tillman and Wing-Yin Chen, the starting rotation gets a little shaky though. The hitters to look out for are Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, and... I don't know, Nick Markakis? Slugger Chris Davis is still suspended for amphetamines and will miss the series. 3B Manny Machado had knee surgery and is done for the year.
Even though this lineup isn't chock full of threats, Cruz, Jones and Pearce are all pretty good, and the Orioles' defense is among the best in the league (while Detroit's is nigh to the bottom). Fortunately, the Tigers' main starters got on a role (finally) down the stretch and will give Baltimore's sluggers plenty to handle. Ausmus announced the post-season rotation of Scherzer, Verlander, Price, and Porcello. The last month was not kind to Porcello, with 3 of his 5 starts lasting less than 4 innings and yielding no less than 4 earned runs each. His main problem lately has been inconsistency & leaving his splitter too high. If he can correct that and make these guys hit it on the ground, he'll have little trouble.
You wouldn't know it from the minor power outage vs. the Twins last week, but the Tigers' offense did pretty well in September. The team batted .292, scoring 124 runs, hitting 29 HR and netting a .783 OPS. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and JD Martinez hit 8, 5, & 6 HR for the month respectively, and all hit over .350. Baltimore was less good in September, although Cruz and Pearce both hit well. This will be a good series, but I predict the Tigers' squeak this one out in 4 games.
***
The Lions went out Sunday and won a game they were supposed to win, despite having Calvin Johnson on a limited basis. ESPN has them ranked 8th, which feels about right. Since the Giants game, this team hasn't dominated a game on either side of the ball. Still, Stafford played one of those games that isn't super sexy but brings home the 'W'.
As ugly as the game was, I was proud of the win. The running game was anemic but worked when it had to. The defense gave up more that it should have but locked down when necessary. And Detroit took care of the ball.
They've got the Buffalo Bills this week, and that's a good thing. Buffalo is switching QBs, and as bad as EJ Manuel has been, the move to Orton scares me not (that link is one of the top 5 youtube video titles, btw). Buffalo has a strong-ish running game, but they don't defend the pass well. They really should be 1-3, but they stole that week 1 game in Chicago. It's a home game for Detroit, they should look to make a statement.
The whole Michigan football program is embattled, from fans, opposing teams, local and national media outlets... They aren't producing on the field, and then this whole Shane Morris thing happened. I covered Hoke's problems ad nauseum in my previous post, so I'll keep this short. Hoke was caught with his pants down. The Shane Morris thing happened because he's clueless on the sideline and disconnected from the bigger picture.
It is well documented that Brady Hoke doesn't wear a headset on the sidelines. This is a HUGE point of contention between Hoke and his critics, and rightly so. It's forced his offensive and defensive coordinators to roam the sidelines behind him so they can communicate strategy with Hoke. As a result of this Luddite coaching philosophy, OC Nussmeier missed the hit on Morris that should've removed him from the game. Hoke wasn't in communication with anyone who had a good view because HE DOESN'T WEAR A HEADSET.
Communication being a major problem these days at Michigan, one presumes Brandon might mandate Hoke wear a headset from now on. If not to help him stay aware of the flow of the game, at least he can have a direct line to someone who's watching the game. Hoke missed the hit on Shane Morris, thinks this team can win a Big Ten Championship, and thinks they lost to Minnesota through simple lack of execution. I don't know what he's watching, but he must have missed Saturday's game.
There has been a lot of outrage (and rightly so) over Hoke's decision to not immediately remove Shane Morris from the game after he had sustain what was likely a concussion. THEN when Gardner had to leave the game for 2 plays when his helmet came off (why these guys are allowed to wear their helmets without properly strapping them on is beyond me), Hoke sent Morris (again, probably concussed) back in to face the wolves instead of having his 3rd stringer hand off to Smith or something. These aren't necessarily things that get coaches fired outright, but they are indicative of a larger problem.
Hoke is clueless. Let me go back to the week leading up to the game over the Little Brown Jug. I know this is a bad Michigan team, but I still expected them to pull out a win, because it isn't a BAD Michigan team. Or so I thought. Hoke announced a potential change in starting QB for this game, which was understandable because Gardner was pretty bad vs. Utah. Here's a news flash: Shane Morris was WAY worse! I figured this was a manufactured QB controversy, engineered to light a fire under Devin Gardner to squeeze a game out of him like we saw last year. I was giving Hoke too much credit.
Brady Hoke should have made Gardner fight for his job, then announce on game day that Gardner has his full confidence, or something. Gardner would've busted his ass! Again, you didn't need to be a college football insider to see that Shane Morris wasn't ready to face a Power 5 defense. This was proven in the stat sheet, but Hoke should've known that prior to kickoff. As the game went along, it became a countdown to when he would pull the trigger on Gardner. Morris's halftime numbers were 6-10 passing for 41 yards. The passing game was window dressing. Then the 3rd quarter happened, Michigan failed to move the ball AT ALL, Morris going 1-7 for 8 yards with 2 fumbles (1 recovered) and an interception.
Prior to the roughing play, Morris had been limping due to the cumulative effect of a couple sacks where his ankle had twisted awkwardly. So putting aside his poor play, Hoke could've used that as an excuse to pull him. He didn't, god knows why. Then the hit happened. A defensive player launched himself at Shane Morris and his helmet hit Morris in the chin. Hoke should have been on the alert, wary of concussion symptoms. Morris looked so groggy and out of sorts that he needed to be supported by one of his linemen to make it to the huddle. Yet Hoke left him in for another play, then reinserted him in the game a few plays later when Gardner had to come out. Here's how he defended his actions:
"I don’t know if he might’ve had a concussion or not. I don’t know that and that wasn’t something- Shane’s a pretty competitive, tough kid and Shane wanted to be the quarterback and so believe me, if he didn’t want to be he would’ve come to the sideline or stayed down."
Allow me to paraphrase - the thought that Shane Morris might have had a concussion didn't enter Hoke's head, and if Morris HAD wanted to come out, it would only mean that the kid didn't really want it enough. Later, when it became evident that this was clearly a THING, Hoke released this statement:
"The safety of our student-athletes is always our top priority. We generally never discuss the specifics of a student-athlete's medical care, but Shane Morris was removed from yesterday's game against Minnesota after further aggravating an injury to his leg that he sustained earlier in the contest.
"He was evaluated by our experienced athletic trainers and team physicians, and we're confident proper medical decisions were made. The University of Michigan has a distinguished group of Certified Athletic Trainers and team physicians who are responsible for determining whether or not a player is physically able to play. Our coaches have no influence or authority to make determinations if or when an injured player returns to competition. The health and welfare of our student-athletes is and will continue to be a top priority."
So, let me get this straight - Shane Morris was removed because his leg injury was reaggravated when he was hit in the head? He wasn't limping after the head hit, he was staggering because his equilibrium was knocked out of whack! Which, by the way, is a concussion symptom. This statement is clearly a CYA move by Hoke, saying Morris was removed due to a leg injury, because Hoke didn't follow the NCAA concussion protocol.
The NCAA is pretty clear on concussions. Once a player exhibits symptoms, he/she must be removed from competition and examined by a medical professional. If a concussion is diagnosed, the athlete can only return after being medically cleared. Concussion assessments must include "balance evaluation", which Morris certainly would have failed. I'm assuming Morris didn't undergo the concussion tests after being pulled because in the post-game, Hoke stated that he "didn't know" if Morris sustained a concussion or not. If that's true then no concussion tests were done, because a concussion expert would have had to clear Morris to play.
Let me get back to the larger problem, that Hoke is clueless. A tactic he's taken in pressers when a reporter has asked a question he didn't want to hear is to question the question and claim ignorance. It's never Hoke's fault or something he has control over. He has to check the tape. He has to hear back from the medical professionals. He'll have to convene with his assistant coaches and make a decision later. Here's an interaction in the same presser between Hoke and a reporter:
There was a stretch there in the third quarter where Shane had a fumble that he recovered, then an interception, then a fumble that he lost. Any idea what was going on during that stretch?
“He had a fumble that he recovered, and what was the other thing?”
Interception.
“That was tipped at the line of scrimmage, right? Okay. I think obviously we have to have better ball security.”
The reporter is referring to a sequence in the 3rd quarter when Shane Morris fumbled to himself on one drive, then threw an interception, then lost a fumble that looked like the ball just fell out of his hands. Hoke acted like he only remembered the fumble that Morris recovered, ignored the fumble that he didn't, and blamed the interception on a tipped pass, like it was a freak play or something. All Michigan fans know that passes tipped at the line of scrimmage can be the QB's fault as well as the offensive line's.
When asked what the team's goals are going forward, Hoke said, "I think this team can still win the championship." I can only assume he means a Big Ten championship, since the last time a 3-loss team won the National Title was... never. I know Hoke HAS to say he believes in this team, but the way he said it sounded extremely oblivious to reality. I have a real problem with the way he breaks down a loss - "we didn't execute", "we didn't tackle", "we didn't play very well", "I'm disappointed in the way we played"... This is all code for "it wasn't my fault".
Here's the problem - this loss was 90% coaching. Poor offensive game planning - this new offense is run with no regard to the abilities of Michigan's players, nor does it consider the strengths/weaknesses of the opposing defense. A number of people have pointed out Poor defensive preparation - they weren't ready to face Minnesota's starting QB, despite the fact that he hadn't been ruled out. Michigan failed to name their QB for the game all week but were confounded by Minnesota doing the EXACT SAME THING. On top of that, the defense seemed fooled by Minnesota's basic running plays, as though they practiced against a different offense. It wasn't a tackling issue, it was a not-being-in-position-to-tackle issue. Poor personnel management - Hoke handled the QB situation entirely wrong, since he named the wrong guy as starter and undermined confidence in the best QB on his roster (who is, sadly, Gardner). Then he proceeded to muck things up by seeming to not care enough about the most important player on the field to have him checked out to see if he could stand on one leg without falling over.
Hoke has to go. He NEVER holds himself accountable, he's failed to develop a program in 4 years, and the future looks as bleak as it did when Rich Rod ran things. Additionally, the Shane Morris incident is a blacker mark on Hoke's record than Rich Rod's practice time violations. Hoke is less detestable than Rich Rod, but that doesn't make him better. Instead of being a slimy character, like Rodriguez was, Hoke is willfully ignorant. He appears unaware of the day-to-day operations of his team and oblivious to the status of his players. Right now he's claiming Shane Morris didn't have a concussion that he knows of, and that the medical professionals will release their own statement, presumably with actual facts in it and stuff.
I'm not saying Michigan should fire Hoke (or AD David Brandon) right now, but they should start sending Jim Harbaugh weekly fruit baskets.
The Tigers pulled out a good one Tuesday, making the magic number 3 with KC's loss to Cleveland. Verlander pitched like an ace, words were exchanged, and ultimately they won a 6-1 contest. Then last night everything went according to script, with Scherzer pitching well, Soria, Joba and Nathan holding down the later innings, Victor and Miguel getting dingers, and Rajai Davis doubling in an insurance run. And now the magic number is two. This Tigers team has been the antithesis of the myth that Momentum Matters. The previous game they nearly lost in the 9th, letting the Sox tie it up before Miguel Cabrera delivered the walkoff hit. They got shut out the game before that, also lost the game before THAT, and then won the 2 games before that, scoring 3 runs and 10 runs. Under the microscope, one game has little in common with the next. Ausmus himself commented recently on what a rollercoaster this season has been.
It has been a weird season. With both Verlander and Cabrera recovering from surgeries in the offseason, neither could do their normal physical prep for the regular season. Verlander especially does a lot of strength building in the offseason. I'm more ready to attribute the drop in his fastball to that than to his career falling off the cliff. Even crazier, the Tigers' 2nd best hitter (after Victor Martinez, who's been NUTS) is... J.D. Martinez? Yup, he's hitting 8 points higher than Miguel, has an OPS of .928 to Miguel's .888, and he has the same number of homers despite Miguel getting 168 more ABs. J.D. might be the single weirdest thing about this weird season.
Joe Nathan went from being pretty good last year to pretty bad. That's kind of weird, although it feels like the Tigers' closer spot has been hexed since... I can't remember when. Mike Henneman maybe (dude had a seriously cleft chin, stuff of legends). Anyway, Nathan's ERA climbed 3.59 points from last year (it's like Nathan's ERA got hungry and ate Joba Chamberlain's ERA), and his WHIP is the highest it's ever been since the Giants tried him out as a starter at the beginning of his career. This is also pretty crazy. Nathan was a Tiger killer with the Twins and Rangers, and now he's a Tiger killer with the Tigers.
Rajai Davis is crazy. He's basically a platoon player who steals bases and does little else, except he's kind of hit for average this year and matched a career high in HR. He's 33 and this is only the 3rd time in his career that he's gone over 400 ABs. He could very well finish with career highs in R & RBI as well, and he's the Tiger's 6th best hitter, despite normally batting 9th.
This season has been crazy. The Tigers have swept Baltimore & Boston back-to-back on the road, then in turn got swept by Cleveland in Cleveland and lost 3 out of 4 to Texas at home. The first half featured big winning streaks and losing streaks, the second half has been mostly a couple here, a couple there. There was a 10th inning loss & a 19th inning loss in back-to-back games in Toronto. If you tried to get a feel for this team by charting wins and losses, you'd go nuts. So yeah, it's been a weird, wild & crazy season...
The Big Lead had a conspiracy theory take on the suspension that unwinds this particular knot - that Simmons wasn't suspended for language or calling Goodell a liar, but for calling out his network. Apparently this has some merit, and it makes more sense than saying he's out for using the "f word". He challenged somebody to punish him for calling Goddell out, saying, "Please, call me and say I’m in trouble. I dare you."
This was the big no-no, but will it be the one that makes Simmons finally break from ESPN? He's been suspended twice before for making negative comments about ESPN or saying things publicly, but those were both twitter-only bans. Well, since ESPN is the best thing to happen to the Sports Guy, my guess is he sticks and writes a wry "well that was dumb of me" column, since leaving ESPN would lose him his platform to appear on TV, radio, online, and to produce documentaries. Putting all of that in jeopardy was pretty dumb.
At the same time, the way ESPN chose to punish this insubordination was so over the top that people can't help but come to the conclusion that the network is trying to back up and protect the NFL commissioner. Whether that's true or not, Goodell is poison right now and this issue hits too close. Drew Brees and other Saints players have pointed out the double standards of his punishment of Saints' HC Sean Payton for Bounty-gate and his own excuses in the Ray Rice situation. Goodell's press conference was an unmitigateddisaster in which he said a lot of words with no substance behind them. John Oliver nailed him better than anybody, so I'll let him take over:
The Washington Post asked the question did Goodell actually lie, or simply "misinform and misdirect"? And is there really a difference? Dress it up all you like, a lie is a lie. A misdirection or an intent to mislead is a lie. An evasion of the truth is a lie. Well, when directly asked about what he knew before the 2nd Ray Rice video was release, Goodell claimed ambiguity, that Rice was ambiguous about what had happened in the elevator. Was Goodell lying? Apparently yes. Was Simmons guilty of a "vicious, personal attack" on Goodell, as ESPN claims? Yes, but that's what he does ALLTHETIME! And he happened to be right about it.
ESPN suspending Simmons muddies the waters, and the network is unintentionally (or intentionally) allying itself with the NFL against Roger Goodell's critics, which include one Entertainment and Sports Programming Network. Is ESPN more in bed with the NFL than they claim to be? Or is this merely a company chastising one of its employees for insubordination? Since previous instances of "back talk" were punished with a week-long twitter ban, there seems to be more at work here.
Put simply, Goodell's actions demand outrage. His standards for acceptable behavior are flexible, depending on who is involved, and his allotment of punishments appears equally arbitrary. He clearly lied about his knowledge of the Ray Rice incident. He had Janay Rice give her own account in a room full of men, with her abuser AND her abuser's employer in the room. Then he gave a press conference that did nothing to explain what he (and the NFL) would actually change, and was more like an athlete's apology presser than anything else, except he didn't really own up to anything.
Simmons expressed his outrage in a venue created for him to express outrage, among other things, and got suspended for it. So was his daring ESPN to punish him some kind of petulant "big-timing" on the part of the Sports Guy? Or was he trying to call attention to a state of hypocrisy in ESPN?
When reflecting on what a particular win means, it's best to wait a couple of days to allow perspective to sink in. The Lions beat a weaker Packers team on Sunday in a way that no one expected. We lost the turnover battle, didn't have a 100-yard rusher OR receiver, no receiving TDs, and Stafford spent much of the afternoon on his back (sacked twice including the fumble sack, hit 9 times). So how did the Lions end up with the W? The Lions' defense - missing half of its starting (and even backup's backups) secondary and lost its playcalling middle LB in the first quarter (for the season!) - managed to put the breaks on Aaron Rodgers. As of right now, the Lions have the #1 defense in the NFL. WHAT? We started the year with holes at safety, outside LB and CB. Mayhew signed Ihedigbo to fill in at safety, and he hasn't played a down yet due to a neck injury. The Lions drafted Kyle Van Noy to solve the problem at outside LB, only HE got injured in the preseason and isn't eligible to return until week 8. Mayhew elected to solve the problem at CB by re-signing aging Rashean Mathis and promoting Darius Slay into the opposite starting role. This tactic worked surprisingly well, given the Lions' history, but the nickle & dime CBs have been droppinglikeflies. No problem, just sign a guy off the street & promote a guy off the practice squad. Wait, that WORKED? Gorrer & Seisay performed better than expected, making a couple of plays while also getting called for a couple of pass interference/illegal contact penalties.
Still, you don't become the #1 defense in the NFL through dumb luck (I know, I know, it's only through week 3, I'll calm down in a second). Firstly, the Lions have been extremely potent against the run, thanks to Suh, Fairley, and Tulloch all being BEASTS to block. With Tulloch now out, it remains to be seen how his replacement will fill in. Darius Slay has looked very comfortable on the island, leading the team in passes defensed and not getting called for a penalty since week 1. Fairley has answered the call and been very disruptive despite battling a biceps injury, Ansah & George Johnson have been decent bookends, Suh has done Suh things, but the key to this defense is... Levy!
DeAndre Levy is starting to get some Pro Bowl love, and I've heard analysts comment on the fact that he was snubbed last year. Already he has an incredibly athletic pick and a tackle for a safety on his highlight resume. In fact, let's take a moment...
Ok. Moving on, he's 1st on the team in tackles so far, 2nd in passes defensed, and 1st in tackles for a loss. He's FAST, and not just for a linebacker. I've seen him run down wide receivers from behind. He's probably the fastest defender to the ball in the league, which means he is not just lightning quick, he also recognizes plays as they happen and puts himself where he needs to be. He also has a legendary beard, but that's beside the main point. Fairley and Slay both seem poised for breakout seasons, but I declare this the Year of Levy.
***
The next opponent is the New York Jets. With Geno Smith under center and top WR Eric Decker likely out, the Lions' run defense will be tested and we'll see how they cope without Tulloch. The Jets have a pretty good offensive line and feature Chris Johnson (yes, THAT Chris Johnson) and the far superior Chris Ivory. A large chunk of Ivory's yards were ripped off on one 71-yard run against Oakland in week 1, but even setting that aside he's still out-performing Johnson. He's a load at 222 lbs, but he's quick too.
The defense is another matter. The Jets have a stout defensive line that stops the run as well as Detroit's does. They run a 3-4, but like Detroit they line up in a bunch of different configurations. Muhammad Wilkerson is a beast, although he's listed as questionable with a knee contusion (he'll play Sunday though). So far this year, this defense has gotten after the QB although they're not ball-hawkers. This may be the toughest defense we face all year, although Arizona in week 11 is no joke either.
Matt Stafford needs to respond. He looked a little "2013-y" to me, throwing the 2 picks and getting stripped by Peppers. In his defense, there were mitigating circumstances for each turnover. He had about 0.5 seconds to get rid of the ball, with the RT looking like a maitre d' escorting Julius Peppers to his table. He was hit 9 times and sacked twice, which is a lot of punishment in 1 game. The first INT that was intended for Corey Fuller wasn't a very catchable ball, but it still hit him in the hand(s). The second INT intended for Calvin Johnson probably shouldn't have been thrown, but it's the type of ball that Stafford often throws up for CJ to go & get. This time, Calvin couldn't get past the defender to make a play on the ball.
Matt Stafford still bears the bulk of the responsibility for the interceptions (the fumble is totally on the RT combo, who's been overmatched in every game they've played), and his last 2 games have been "Romo-esque". We need to see the better version of Matt Stafford this Sunday. He doesn't need to go all "Scorched Earth" like he did in week 1, but he needs to move the offense better that he has the last 2 games.
The kicking game needs to show up. Nate Freese was released probably after he got out of the shower on Sunday, and the Lions picked up Alex Henery to take his place. The new guy isn't exactly a lock to be an improvement, since he was originally release by the Eagles after going 1-3 in the pre-season. Simply put, this looks to be a grind-it-out game with a premium on scoring and the Lions can't afford to take points off the board by missing a bunch of field goals.
The Lions MUST continue to stop the run without Tulloch. It's been announced today that Tahir Whitehead will get a shot at playing the mike LB position for Tulloch. I don't expect him to produce like Tulloch did, but he can't be a disaster, and Palmer has to hold his end up as well at the other LB spot. If he can't do it, look for newly-signed LB Josh Bynes to play the mike position.
This is a dangerous game in that the Lions SHOULD win, being the superior team, but the Jets are good enough on D and in the run game that if the Lions hurt themselves and get behind, making a comeback would be difficult. Watch out for this one.
It was a pretty good weekend to be a Lions fan (getting a rare win over Green Bay), a so-so weekend to be a Tigers fan (winning 2 out of 3 vs. the Royals), and a CRAPPY weekend to be a University of Michigan football fan (losing to Utah at home, failing in every facet of the game).
Devin Gardner should be done as the starting QB of Michigan(unfortunately, Shane Morris isn't exactly ready, but it's probably still a better move to close the door on Gardner). It's not very fair, since he gets about 2 seconds to get the ball off in an average dropback, but at the same time he's also thrown some terrible passes when he's had adequate protection. Michigan continues to be on the wrong side of the turnover equation, with Gardner contributing 2 interceptions, and backup Shane Morris giving a pick and a fumble, for variety's sake. Worse, the offense was kept entirely out of the end zone and was shut out in the 2nd half, never getting closer than the Utah 38.
The defense looked almost as bad. Despite managing to score the Wolverine's only touchdown, they looked pathetic for most of the game. On one particular score, the Utes lined up on the Michigan 32 and ran a pass play where the receivers ran crossing 5-yard drags. This is usually called a "pick play" because one receiver usually tries to "accidentally" bump into the guy covering the 2nd receiver (it's accidental because if it were on purpose it would be "illegal"... incidentally, when I played in HS I was invariable the guy assigned to run the pick, not catch the ball. This should tell you all you need to know about my skills as a HS receiver). Anyway, this wasn't a pick play because the Utah receiver never bumped off the coverage, Michigan's defense just got lazy in the zone and didn't communicate. As a result, Utah receiver Dres Anderson caught the ball on the Michigan 25 and ran the rest of the way in without being touched.
After the game was basically over (Gardner had been pulled after his 2nd pick for Shane Morris, who completed a couple of passes to Michigan players before deciding to mix it up and throw to the other team), lightning was spotted, rain flooded the field, and the Big House emptied.
I hate it when people live in denial, and I think the bulk of the Michigan fan base have been living there since Brady Hoke came to town. Hopefully Saturday was a wakeup call. Hoke has been pitching a version of Michigan that doesn't exist anymore. Hoke has said all the right things to appeal to this fan base - denigrating OSU, touting Michigan's tradition as a top program, preaching integrity and excellence, etc. What he hasn't done is bring any innovation to the program, and he certainly hasn't brought wins.
And here's the thing about "Tradition". Tradition ceases to be tradition if you don't do it anymore. Michigan's "tradition" as a top program is a lot like my family's tradition of going camping every summer, which we kinda stopped doing when I was in middle school. This hasn't been an elite program for a while. The last time Michigan had even a share of the Big Ten title was in 2004 and the last time Michigan was relevant nationally was 2006 when they were ranked #2 nationally until they lost the OSU game, then got pretty well handled in the Rose Bowl by Pete Carroll's USC Trojans.
The first thing that stands out is Michigan's lack of success in the Big Game, yielding a .250% record in 16 Rose Bowl appearances, the last win coming in the 1998 game that earned Michigan a share of the National Title. The 2007 game exposed Michigan's program as antiquated, at which point Those In Charge of Things panicked and started a chain of events that lead to Lloyd Carr's departure (the App State game was the dot on the exclamation point that was the 2007 Rose Bowl), Rich Rod's hiring (after missing on Les Miles), Rich Rod's firing, and Hoke's subsequent hiring (after both Jim Harbaugh & Les Miles turned them down), now Hoke is probably gone this year or next.
On the bright side, the defense isn't entirely a lost cause. Yes, out of the 4 offenses they've faced, 2 were cupcakes. Still, no opponent has gained 300 yards on them yet. In fact, Michigan is 8th in yards allowed per game.
This doesn't tell the whole story, since admittedly Michigan has faced a couple of cupcakes. A more accurate picture is shown by looking at Team Efficiencies, which is schedule-adjusted and looks at the value added by the offense, defense, and special teams. Here Michigan ranks at a less-bombastic-but-still-respectable 39th, but offense and special teams both posted negative efficiencies. No surprise there.
Michigan's schedule is uber-weak this year, since the Big Ten thought it would be a good idea to water things down and add Rutgers and Maryland, and luckily we're catching Northwestern and Indiana in one of their off-decades. What I'm saying is this Michigan team is a crappy team that will probably go 7-5 or even 8-4. If they go 8-4, Hoke probably keeps his job. The problem with this is I could coach this team to a 7-5 record, so why pay Hoke a bunch of money to be an empty headset that regurgitates "This Is Michigan" propaganda?
We need to deconstruct the myth. Michigan is an aristocrat, gone broke after the revolution and still clinging to the past. Yes, there is a wonderful history back there, but it has no bearing on the present. Once we all accept that, we can move on, and even possibly win some frickin' games.
I recall a discussion over dinner at a friend's house. This friend was married to a woman from the Dominican Republic, and her dad was there along with another Dominican couple. In classic Dominican fashion, about 3 or 4 different conversations were being carried out at the same time, loudly, and in heavily accented Spanish. It was REALLY hard to follow, and I'm pretty fluent.
At one point, in an attempt to contribute, I remarked to my friend's father-in-law that I'd heard that in his home town there were a lot of times when they were without electricity. He kind of laughed and said, "No, where I come from there are a few times when we HAVE electricity."
This distinction came to mind recently when I was thinking about the Tigers' closer, Joe Nathan. He doesn't have periods of unreliability, he has a few periods of reliability in between all the unreliability. Check his game log: He gave up 6 runs in 10 appearances in April, 6 runs in 11 appearances in May, 9 runs (plus 1 unearned) in 10 appearances in June, 3 runs in 9 appearances in July, 4 runs in 11 appearances in August, and now 3 runs in 6 appearances so far in September. His WHIP is 1.57, a terrible number for supposedly the strongest arm in the bullpen and much higher than his career 1.12. His ERA is at 5.10, higher than his career ERA of 2.90, and more fitting of a guy you would trot out in a 10-2 laugher, not in the 9th inning of a close game.
Fans have been clamoring for Joakim Soria to take over the closer role, and rightly so. After a rough start with Detroit in July, he's allowed 1 run in 6 appearances in August & September. Unfortunately, Ausmus seems to be dead set on sticking with Nathan, who has done little to deserve the loyalty he's getting. Ausmus even suggested he might start using Soria more in the 6th inning of the upcoming (and very crucial) Royals series. I'd actually be okay with this if it means that Ausmus plans on using Soria when the game is most in jeopardy, regardless of the inning. I suspect, however, that it means Soria can pitch either the 6th or the 7th, or the 8th is Joba isn't available, and Nathan still gets the 9th no matter what.
This isn't even based on old, crusty managing. The specialization of inning-specific pitchers didn't emerge until the 1990's, and has been largely viewed as a fallacy by advanced stat-heads. You want your best pitcher pitching when the game is on the line. If that's in the 9th inning, then fine, but that moment may come in the 8th, 7th, or even the 6th inning. The game may be tied, or the Tigers may even be down a run and in danger of being down even more. Why not use your best reliever when you need him most instead of when the 9th inning rolls around?
As much as I loved the David Price trade at the time, I had some concerns about it. Price is on my fantasy team, so I knew the Tigers weren't getting the same guy that won the Cy Young award 2 years ago. And sure enough, Price hasn't helped as much as Dombrowski hoped when he made the deal. To make matters worse, Drew Smyly has been a virtual ace since arriving at Tampa Bay, going 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.755 WHIP, and 44 Ks in 47.2 innings and has only pitched 1 game where he allowed more than 2 runs (he allowed 3 on 8/5 vs. OAK). Price, on the other hand, has gone 3-5 (for a better team) with a 4.09 ERA, 1.22 WHIP (ok, not bad...), and 66 Ks in 61.2 innings (ok, that's not bad either). He's allowed more than 3 runs on 4 of his 9 starts, including two 5-run outings and an 8-run start. Yikes.
And I like Rajai Davis, but getting rid of Austin Jackson didn't completely open up CF for Rajai. The Tigers have played Ezequiel Carrera there when the matchup didn't favor Davis, and Carrera is basically a replacement level bat. Jackson hasn't exactly been tearing it up in Seattle, but losing him weakened an offense that has gone through its share of dry patches.
Despite the struggles of some of the more notable pitchers (Verlander, Price, Nathan), Cabrera seeming more human than usual, and some questionable use of the bullpen, the Tigers are half a game ahead of KC (really a full game ahead, since KC still has to make up that 1/2 inning that got rained out in the 12th after Cleveland had scored 2 runs). Verlander faces Vargas, the big matchup is tomorrow with Scherzer getting James Shields, and then Porcello wraps it up on Sunday vs. Jeremy Guthrie.
KC isn't playing good ball right now, but then again Detroit just dropped 2 out of 3 against the TWINS, who are not a good baseball team. This Detroit team has been a roller coaster, and they don't look like a World Series team to me, but crazy things happen in the playoffs. Anything could happen.
I was on the road practically all day Saturday because I had to pick up our car from a mechanic roughly 3 1/2 hrs away from home (LONG, long story there). As a result I experienced the entire Michigan game via radio broadcast, and I gotta say, Jim Brandstatter gets a D- so far as a play-by-play guy. He's not bad as a color analyst, but his play-by-play is often inaccurate, meandering, and for lack of a better word, "talky". Brandstatter never had to economize his speech to the point where he could get the information out using as few words as possible. He's been a decent color guy for Beckmann and still for Dan Miller, but he's always had them to put the ship back on track when the action starts. By way of example, instead of saying "third and seven from the Michigan 31," Brandstatter might say "it's third down, Michigan is on their own 31 yard line and need to get to the 38 for a first down." It doesn't seem like much, but it takes 10 seconds longer to say, by which point the play has already started and he has to catch up. Some of this may come in time, along with a better back & forth with Dierdorf, which has been cumbersome so far. But I wonder if Brandstatter will be able to really pull it off with all his years of color commentary habits getting in the way. Good play-by-play should paint a picture of the game, give you all the necessary information of what's happening, and ramp up the energy at crucial moments. It's really hard to do. Ken Kal is probably the best at it in this area, edging out Dan Dickerson because hockey is MUCH harder to call than baseball. Brandstatter has been in radio since the mid-80's, but despite his experience I suspect he won't be able to convert his talent for color commentary to be a successful play-by-play guy. ***
There isn't much I want to say about Michigan's performance on the field Saturday. If I'm giving Brandstatter/Dierdorf a D- for announcing, the actual football team gets a C-. They were playing a pretty weak Miami of Ohio team and went into the half up only 7, thanks to a bunch of Michigan turnovers (not the good kind). The Wolverines came out in the second half and held onto the ball, but did little else differently from the first half. They were basically playing against themselves, and I wasn't particularly impressed. I'm of the opinion that Devin Gardner won't ever "get it" but Morris isn't ready yet, so we're stuck with Gardner. The offensive line is atrocious. As well as the running game carried the day, there were a LOT of negative/short plays (including a failed Big Boy moment - 3rd & 2, stopped short) considering the size advantage Michigan's offensive line had over Miami's defense.
The Big Ten (or whatever they are now) is REALLY weak this year, so Michigan could finish as well as 8-4 despite the fact that they feel more like a barely-.500 team. Utah is going to be a tougher challenge than most suspect. Michigan are 5.5 point favorites, but the offense is mediocre and the defense, while having performed reasonably well so far, is largely untested. My biggest concern are the turnovers. Michigan has committed 8 through 3 games, while only causing 1. Utah has committed 1 turnover in 2 games and caused 1 themselves. If Michigan doesn't get on the right side of the turnover differential in this game, they lose. They know this. ***
A lot can happen in the NFL from week to week, and the standard response from fans is to overreact. After the week 1 win over the Giants, I was guilty of that (although it was mainly for comic effect). I'm not going to do the same this week. There were a number of factors playing into the loss to Carolina.
That defense is incredible. SHOULD the Lions have been able to break it? Well, yes, but...
A revolving door would've given Stafford more protection at RT than he got from the Reynolds/Lucas combo, although that doesn't excuse the poor play from both Stafford and the receiving corps
Sometimes you just are off. Stafford was off, underthrowing CJ on the interception, etc, and the receivers were off, dropping many of the passes that got to them. CJ only had 6 catches on 13 targets, notably dropping a TD pass and a 3rd down pass that would have converted
The real causes for concern were problems in week 1, only NYG wasn't the kind of team that could exploit them. The Panthers have the best LB in football to compliment a SOLID solid defense, and they exploited the hell out of them. There are three major causes for concern going into week 3:
The run game hasn't come around. The Lions are 28th in the NFL in rushing offense. I don't expect it to get much better if RT Waddle is still out, although Green Bay is 26th in the league in rushing defense (caveat: GB was facing 2 run-first teams, and Detroit is hardly run-first, run-second, or even run-third). Expect this "weakness v. weakness" storyline to get pounded hard by any media outlet covering this game. I'd like to see Bush get more carries than Bell this week
Team depth is a serious issue. Martin Mayhew has not distinguished himself with very deep drafts, as has been reported earlier this year. In a retrospective, ESPN gave the 2011 draft the lowest possible grade, and that was before Leshoure got cut! From the 2012 draft, only Reiff (starting LT) and Tahir Whitehead (LB/spec. teams) are currently making a significant contribution. Broyles & Bentley are injured (again, in both cases), and most of the rest of that draft have been cut. Suh is the only one left from the 2010 draft (Willie Young is playing well elsewhere). 2013 was Mayhew's best draft, but early returns on the 2014 draft (and my vague impression) suggest it will be more like the 2010/2011/2012 drafts than 2013.
THIS IS ALL TO SAY - injuries have hit this team hard through games 1 & 2. An already weak defensive backfield (thanks Mayhew!) is now all but holding an open tryout (Ihedigbo - missed 2 games, day-to-day, Bentley & Lawson - out for season). A position of strength, RT, is now a question mark after starter LaAdrian Waddle got hurt in the first series of game 1 & his very competent backup Hilliard got knocked out for the season later the same game. Additionally, the Lions drafted Kyle Van Noy to balance out the LB position, which was pretty strong with Tulloch & Levy. Well, you can guess what happened. A depth chart, already shallow from a number of weak drafts, is suffering greatly. The Lions are like a ship that springs a leak from the weakest part of the hull, the strongest part of the hull, and all the places they've patched before. And they are using seaweed to stuff the holes. Yikes.
The kicking game has been... (looking for a word more expressive than "craptastic")... ABYSMAL. This team cannot afford to leave points on the board. New kicker Nate Freese has missed kicks of 43, 49 & 49 yards. His longest make so far was 28 yards, meaning the ball was on the 11. In the NFL, if you miss a FG under 50 yds you are leaving points on the board. The two misses last week prevented that game from being competitive down the stretch. The hope is that Freese is just having some rookie jitters and starts kicking straighter, but Mayhew & Caldwell probably screwed up BIG in going with Freese over Tavecchio in the preseason kicking competition. Now they're stuck.
The Lions are good enough to beat Green Bay, but they are also bad enough to beat themselves. This is why I don't trust this team AT ALL. I naively got sucked in last year, which is the natural inclination of most fans (unless you're the type that loves bringing out theSOLacronym). ***
The Tigers are fun to watch again, but I'll save that for later this week. Instead, how about we take a look at the one athlete in Detroit having a worse week than Nate Freese... Jayru Campbell. Campbell was listed as a 3-star recruit by ESPN with offers from Alabama, MSU, and Notre Dame, and had committed to play for MSU in the 2015 season. On January 22nd he body-slammed a security guard at Cass Tech, purportedly for the crime of hassling him to take of his hat. Campbell decommitted from State, took some anger management classes, and went to jail on July 28th. He was let out at noon last Friday and wasted no time, making it to Cass Tech a little later in the day & pushing his gf down while he checked her texts. (Interesting side note - Campbell's attorney is named Walter Pookrum. You're welcome.)
There is a flood of football players in the news for some form of domestic violence - Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy, et al. It's gone so far that CBS has pulled a Rihanna song from its Thursday Night Football rotation because of her association with domestic violence (I'd like to point out the insanity of this since Rihanna was a VICTIM not the abuser, so penalizing her for being in an abusive relationship is like SUPPORTING domestic violence, right?).
The main ingredients of the problem seem to be "athlete in a violent sport" + "tends to get his own way". Campbell was given a break on the initial sentencing back in May, but don't expect him to catch any more breaks. Another common thread is some random friend/family member saying something like "he was always a good kid, this is totally out of character," and this Jayru Campbell Story is no exception (check the Ogletree quote in the 4th paragraph). Excuse me, but no it isn't. That's crap. I guarantee you in every situation there is a silent minority who have directly experienced the poor character of these men, only those people have been shouted down by adoring fans and those who hope to benefit from the athlete's success.
The NFL is getting its nose rubbed in this right now and rightly so, but Jayru Campbell is an example of a deeper societal problem. We glorify athletes to the point that we excuse their actions because we admire what they can do on the field, until those actions are caught on camera like Campbell's body slam and Rice's elevator punch. When we see the viciousness and ugliness they are capable of, we demonize them and dismiss them. But aren't we a little bit guilty? We've been handing out free passes like crazy, why are we outraged when someone takes advantage of them?
Ok, it's been awhile but I'm going to skip all the catching up business (my last post coming in March, a lot has happened) and get to the point. Football.
The NFL regular season, week 1 is in the books and the Lions performed about as well as they are capable of on Monday night. Naturally, Drew Sharp wasted no time in posting his annual "turd in the punchbowl" column following the 35-14 win over the Giants (roughly 2.5 hrs after the game ended). Anyway, breezing by the guy that likes to sneeze on the birthday cake (for the record, Mitch Albom is Drew Sharp's polar opposite), let's get to the action.
Sorry about the quality, but the NFL (No Fun League) is doing a great job of keeping recent game footage off YouTube and no longer provides the embed code for videos, so this was the best I could do. For better res, try this link out, or full highlights here.
Anyway, this play sort of encapsulated a lot of the things the offense did well. The offensive line did a pretty good job in pass protection (the rush came from a guy that dragged the RT Waddle down by his facemask), Stafford used his newfound mobility to slide step the rusher and buy time, and Calvin Johnson used that time to get absurdly open.
I'd read a couple of articles on how Stafford now has a QB coach for the first time in his NFL career (imagine!), and they were working on his footwork and that sort of thing. This piqued my interest, since Stafford's footwork has always been the main thing holding him back. If he could figure his feet out...
Let me take a moment here and extrapolate. Going back to last season's collapse, fair or foul, I've always believed that Stafford was primarily responsible. His QB rating went from 96.2 in September, to 93.5 in October, to 78.9 in November, and finally 63.8 in December. He essentially went from Romo/Roethlisberger territory to Kellen Clemens to sub-Geno Smith. With solid footwork, the Romo/Roethlisberger scenario would be Stafford on a BAD day. So, fix the feet to fix Stafford, fix Stafford to fix the Lions, and the sky is the limit.
...Ok, sorry about that. Not that I want to go all crazy-giddy-psycho-fan on you (LIONS, SUPER BOWL 2015!!!), but if this version of Matt Stafford is legit, you can start buying Lions playoff stock. Other things I liked - the new offense seemed to be well run (for the most part), the defense put decent pressure on the QB (Ansah and Levy were all over the place), I LOVED the turnover differential (although Levy probably dropped his INT), and I liked how the Lions closed the game. After the first quarter, they seemed content to sit back and kick field goals, leaving the door open for a Giants comeback. Then they slammed that door shut with Stafford's scramble TD, then the soul-crushing 12-play TD drive with the Fauria 2-pt conversion to cap it off.
What I didn't like:
The penalties! Detroit gift-wrapped the Giants' first TD with the roughing the kicker and pass interference in the end zone penalties, and Raiola had a 15-yd facemask that negated a 25-yd CJ catch and killed a drive, to name a few. Still, the silver lining is that after chalking up 8 penalties for 85 yards in the 1st half, the Lions cleaned it up in the 2nd half
The Lions run game, apart from the last TD drive which featured 8 rushing plays for 37 yards, was pretty anemic. New York seemed to stack a little against the run, oddly enough, but I expected the line to be more effective in the run game than they were
The defense held Eli Manning's offense to 14 points, but a lot of that is due to how crappy that offense is right now. I liked the pass rush and linebacker play, but that secondary... I don't remember much good or bad about Mathis' performance, but Slay had plenty of both. When the nickle corner, Bentley, went down, followed by the remaining starting safety, this team's primary weakness was on full display. Fortunately the Giants weren't capable of exploiting it. I'm hoping Champ Bailey isn't as washed up as Denver and New Orleans think he is
Last year I predicted that the Lions would finish 11-5. Unfortunately, they defied the odds and DIDN'T (come on, after 9 games everyone was saying 11 wins, minimum). I'm not going to put a number on this season, I'll go for a range and hedge a little. Best case scenario, they finish with 12 wins and take the division. Worst case, they end up with 7 wins and everyone comes to the conclusion that Stafford won't ever get it.
Most likely it'll be somewhere in between, but get ready. Cam Newton & his busted ribs are up next.
