Consensus on the Lions' draft is they did good, not great. They got a guy who's a bit of a boom-or-bust project at DE, then they went for CB with one of the fastest 40-times but has some health concerns. They followed up in the 3rd round by grabbing OG Larry Warford, who I actually liked better than OT Menelik Watson (the guy Kiper wanted them to take in the 2nd). They finished off the draft by taking another tall DE, a punter (a PUNTER??), a WR, RB, TE, and an ILB. Interestingly, they signed an undrafted free agent that I think is a threat to make the team, maybe even crack the rotation if Reiff or Hilliard prove ineffective - OT LaAdrian Waddle. He's a BIG guy (6'6", 332 lbs) and you know he can pass block, playing at Texas Tech. My guess is he makes the team (WAY too thin at OT right now), and eventually gets a starting spot in a year or 2.
The hope is that the Lions drafted 3 players who will give an immediate impact. Maybe less immediate with Ansah, he may not be ready to take the majority of the snaps at the beginning of the year. My guess is they bring Ansah on slowly, and by about halfway through the year he's taking a majority of the snaps at one of the DE spots. Darius Slay (great name) SHOULD push for the #2 CB spot if healthy enough to play. It's definitely a concern to me that the Lions spent ANOTHER high draft pick on a guy with injury concerns, the hope is obviously that it won't come back to bite them (like it did the last 12 times).
Day 1, Round 1 of the 2013 NFL Draft is in the books. I have to say, it didn't play out exactly the way I wanted. I was REALLY hoping that one of the top 3 OT's would still be available at the Lions' pick, and a week ago it looked likely. Instead the Lions ended up taking Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah, a very exciting prospect at DE who still needs a LOT of work.
He made some big plays on pure athleticism, especially the hit on Denard Robinson in the Senior Bowl. He looked beat, scraped along the line and caught up. His athleticism is really exciting, his instincts are pretty good (especially considering his VERY limited experience), and he can deliver some vicious hits.
My main concern is his technique. There are 4 basic techniques that D linemen use to rush the passer - the swim move, the spin move, the bull rush, and the rip (or chop & rip, club & rip, etc.) technique. The spin and bull rush moves don't really work unless combined with another move, and naturally those are the 2 moves Ansah uses the most. My HS football coach hated it when we used a spin move because usually high schoolers don't use it properly, resulting in 3 things: 1) moving laterally out of position, 2) presenting the blocker your back, making you easier to block, and 3) causing you to lose sight of the play & waste time (I never used the spin move, mainly swim, rip, and occasionally bull rush). Ansah uses it primarily as an escape move when the play moves out of the pocket. It definitely needs some work.
The bull rush works well for Ansah in college because he's so quick & strong. When he beats the OT off the snap, he can get under his pads and drive that OT back. In the NFL, pass blocking OT's usually line up in a 2-point stance and are less susceptible to just a straight bull rush technique (combining with a spin works well though). The bull rush also doesn't work too well against a double-team, or if a TE or RB chips the DE (as they frequently do against the Lions). Ansah is basically a 1 or 2 move pass rusher, and he needs 2-3 moves EVERY PLAY. Send him to Chuck Smith's pass rush school first thing this off-season. A couple of years of that & this kid could be leading the league in sacks by year 3.
Day 2, Rounds 2 & 3 begins at 6:30 tonight. The Lions have the 4th pick of the 2nd round and the 3rd pick in the 3rd round. They still need help at OL (preferably someone who can come right out & start), CB, and OLB... and they probably need another DE and a WR. Here are some options still available for the Lions' top needs, along with highlight videos of my favorites:
He's fast, probably the fastest CB available. At this point he looks like a #2 CB who could develop into a #1. He's good in coverage and isn't afraid to tackle a runner (which Gunther Cunningham LOVES in a CB). Needs work on reading plays & not looking into the backfield too much, but he does a better job of turning and LOOKING FOR THE BALL than many of the Lions' other CB's (something that's easier when you have closing speed). CB Johnathan Banks (Mississippi State) - 6'2", 185 lbs, 4.61 40-timeHe's bigger, but slower & weaker than Taylor (10 bench reps vs. 22 reps), and really looks more like a safety than a CB. Actually, he used to BE a safety, so that fits. CB Tyrann Mathieu (LSU, sort of) - 5'9", 186 lbs, 4.50 40-time The Honey Badger would be a 3rd round pick, and more than a bit of a risk considering the Lions' continuing off-the-field problems. He's a Swiss Army Knife defender, a ball hawk, and could also return punts.
He's another guy who's just learning the game (born in the UK) but looks promising. He started at RT his entire junior season and may have taken over at LT his senior year, but decided to enter the draft to support his family. He looks like he could come in & play RT right now for the Lions, maybe eventually taking the LT job if Reiff or whoever can't handle it. OG Larry Warford (Kentucky) - 6'3", 332 lbs, 28 reps-benchBIG big guy. Needs to add explosion, but overall a lot to like. I actually like him a LITTLE better than Watson except the Lions are DYING for a tackle, especially since it sounds like Reiff could move to guard. OT Terron Armstead (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) - 6'5", 306 lbs, 31 reps-benchHe showed blazing speed for an OT at the combine (4.71 40-time), but I don't think that's as relevant for an OT. Armstead had his hands full at times in the Senior Bowl. He can handle speed rushers just fine, but a guy like Justin Smith would eat him for lunch. If he adds some strength in his legs, he'd be a good get in the 3rd round.
This is the only LB I think the Lions should consider in the 2nd round (pass on Manti Te'o). He's a good tackler (something Lions LB's struggle with), and a move to the weak-side LB spot should mitigate his problems due to lack of size. He has the speed to play Will LB (weak-side), could play Sam (strong-side), & is easily a plug & play guy (immediate impact). OLB Chase Thomas (Stanford) - 6'3", 244lbs, 4.91 40-time He improved on his 40-time on his pro day (4.80), but it's pretty clear he has questionable athleticism at best. He makes plays by hustling. He could play Sam, lacks speed for Will. OLB Khaseem Greene (Rutgers) - 6'1", 241 lbs, 4.71 40-timeBetter athlete than Thomas but has questionable hustle, so I rank him lower. His production for 2012 was pretty good though (136 tackles, 12 for loss, 6 sacks, 5 PD, 6 FF).
Also hanging out there but less of a need are DE's Margus Hunt (if he's still there in the 3rd, TAKE HIM) and William Gholston, or WR's Markus Wheaton, Josh Boyce, or Aaron Dobson. KR is also a need, and Jordan Poyer, BW Webb, or Dennis Johnson later in the draft.
The Wings won last night and just need a win in their last game or a Columbus loss to make the playoffs. They need Minnesota to lose their next 2 games to make the #7 seed. Just in case you were wondering.
I KILLED my AM run today, doing 3 miles in 23:42. My ankle's been feeling a little better since I've given it a little extra rest, so hopefully that continues. Going to Live Coal Gallery's Opening tonight after work. My wife & I got a free membership because I pitched in to get the space ready, so, looking forward to that. Have a good Friday!
At this point in the NFL off-season, mock drafts are like pimples - everybody's got 5 to 20 of them. McShay and Kiper make it look like they have less by going the 4.1 route, but really they each have about 9-10. The one I place most credence in is Mike Mayock's. He basically does what an NFL scout does, going to the combine and pro days, looking at team needs, etc. Then he does his mock ON DRAFT DAY, not immediately following the Super Bowl. He's like the Nostradamus of the NFL Draft, rarely getting it wrong.
Anyway, setting aside the possibility of a team trading down, Mayock has the top 3 OT's going in the top 4 picks, leaving Detroit with the option of either Ziggy Ansah at DE or Dee Milliner at CB. Mayock likes Ansah's upside, saying he might be the top defensive player in football in a couple years. That sounds good. OT is a SLIGHTLY bigger need (and protects investments in Stafford & Bush) and if someone trades into the top 4 to grab Geno Smith, one of the top 3 tackles could drop to Detroit at 5.
Last thing I want to say about the draft - this is NOT the year to completely ignore need for BPA. If Sharrif Floyd is the best available when the Lions go on the clock, they should still pass him up for Ansah or Milliner. The Lions have gaping holes at DE and OT, and slightly less gaping holes at OG and CB. The answer to the DE/OT problem is not currently on the team, and OG and CB may be on the team already, maybe not. This is a team that NEEDS to get back into the playoffs, they won't do that by taking another DT or WR in the first or second round.
The Wings snuck past Columbus for the 8th seed in the Western Conference. With 2 games left, Detroit needs to win out to be assured a playoff spot but can also clinch with a win & a Columbus loss tonight. They could move up as high as the 7th seed if they win out and Minnesota loses at least once. The 7th seed is WAY more preferable, since the opponent would be the Ducks and the Wings have a winning record against them (2-1-0). The Blackhawks have owned the Wings this year (0-2-2), so obviously winning out is the best scenario.
This has definitely been a rebuilding year for the Wings. They still get decent production out of their long-time stars (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen and Kronwall), but they also got some great production out of some newer faces (Brunner, Smith), and guys like Nyquist and DeKeyser have shown flashes of what they could bring. Despite this being his first year in the NHL, Brunner is a bit older and not considered a rookie, so I don't expect too much improvement from him down the road. Brendan Smith looks like the real deal though, and Nyquist has a nose for the goal that will only get better.
Guess who's back (and sporting some hideously-dyed facial hair)? That's right, Valverde came in and got a 1-2-3 save. Each batter made SERIOUS contact, but hit it in the general vicinity of a glove and made an out. On a more encouraging note, Victor Martinez appeared to break out of his mini-slump (1-15, 0 RBI last 4 games) by going 2-5 and picking up 2 RBI on a double laced down the 1B line and a single. More of that would be good, because Martinez's AVG on the year is still south of Mendoza, teams are walking Fielder to get to him, and he hasn't been producing with runners in scoring position like he has in the past.
A lot's happened since I last did a post. Things were busy at work, so I had to skip a couple days. Anyway, with the draft coming up tomorrow, let's start with the Lions...
ESPN is flashing McShay's Mock 5.1, Kiper's Mock 4.1, and a seven round mock done by Scouts Inc. McShay has the Lions taking DE Ansah in the first, Kiper has them taking CB Milliner, and Scouts Inc has them taking Ansah first, OT Terron Armstead second, CB Dwayne Gratz third, and OLB Chase Thomas fourth. To be honest, I had to look those last 3 guys up. I'm not really excited about the prospect of grabbing another 3rd round CB, and the scouts draft as a whole I didn't like. It was more a matching of their scouting with team needs, not what teams might actually DO. More and more buzz that the Lions might go with OT Lane Johnson with their #1 pick, if Joeckel and Fisher are both gone (which increasingly looks like the case). The Chiefs are almost definitely taking an OT now, since they're probably trading Albert. Jacksonville might go OT also, and for some reason a lot of mocks have Philly taking an OT, despite the fact that they have 2 good ones under contract.
Anyway, if the top 2 OT's are gone, Johnson might be a good way to go. He's a big of a project (originally recruited as a QB), not a ton of experience at LT, but he's a physical specimen & very athletic. If he goes in the top 4, I like Milliner a little better than Ansah right now. Milliner will help immediately (which the Lions need), and there's plenty of DE depth in the late 1st-early 2nd round. Still like Margus Hunt.
Another possibility, and one Adam Schefter thinks is likely, is that the Lions trade down. I'm less than crazy about that, but trading down could afford the Lions a good shot at one of the top OG's (Chance Warmack & Jonathan Cooper) and an extra pick later on. Ideal trade-down scenario would have the Lions swap with the Jets at 13, draft an OG and then get a DE like Hunt and a RT prospect like Kyle Long in the second round.
The Tigers' offense fell apart this past weekend, including a game where they loaded the bases in 3 different innings and failed to get a run (they lost in extra innings). The good news is there is some hope for the bullpen, with ERA disaster Brayan Villareal mercifully getting sent down, and Bruce Rondon & Jose Valverde coming up. Valverde's dropped 15 lbs, gotten some velocity back, and is throwing his splitter again. That all sounds good, although very suspicious. Niyo seemed to invite PED questions by saying:
"But beyond that, it's a bit of a mystery how Valverde managed to find the velocity he'd steadily lost the past few years and the split-finger fastball he'd all but abandoned by the end of last season."
Whether or not there's any merit to that, the Tigers are signing up for the Valverde roller-coaster again. At least until Rondon is ready.
The question becomes Who's Next? The Pistons are notoriously fickle with their coaches. Since Chuck Daly, only Doug Collins (fired mid-season in his 3rd year) and Flip Saunders (fired after his 3rd season) lasted more than 2 seasons as a head coach in Detroit.
The Candidates: Note: I'm skipping over guys like Phil Jackson, Jerry Sloan and Jeff Van Gundy. I think they'd be great coaches, but they're unlikely to come here or even coach again.
He's the name you'll probably hear the most, at least from fans. He's had the HC job in Seattle (RIP) and Portland, and he's also a former player. He also was an assistant in the Beijing Olympics under Krzyzewski. The Pros - he's got both experience as an NBA coach and as a player, and that would buy him extra cred in the locker room. He's also a defensive-minded coach that can do a lot with players not known for their D. The Cons - his offense is stagnant and not very imaginative. He's only made it out of the first round of the playoffs once, largely due to his offense and lack of in-game adjustments. He's been criticized for playing vets over younger players (only half-warranted), and eventually lost the locker room in Portland. The Verdict - not an especially imaginative hire, but probably the safest one. He could bring the D back to Detroit, but I don't think he could take us to the promised land without some help with the offense.
Stan Van Gundy - reg. season 371-208 (.641), playoffs 48-39 (.552) He's probably the name you'll hear second most, after McMillan. He's got more playoff experience and had more success than McMillan, but both of his coaching stints ended in controversy. He served as an assistant under Pat Riley before becoming the Heat's HC. The Pros - is a good coach offensively and defensively. He's creative and is able to adapt styles to fit the team. Orlando shouldn't have made the 2009 NBA Finals, given the talent they had. The Cons - every single frustration is written in his face, and he tends to overreact and whine during and after games. Shaq described him (aptly) as a "master of panic", meaning that when the going gets tough, SVG does not exude calm confidence. Never played above D-III in college, and he kinda looks like Ron Jeremy. The Verdict - he's less likable than McMillan but he's a better coach. He won't win the Big One until he learns to calm down a little on the sideline.
Scott Skiles - reg. season 443-433 (.506), playoffs 18-24 (.429) Skiles you'll hear less, and although he's a good coach, clearly a tier below the first 2 guys. Detroit would be his 4th HC stop, and he played at Michigan State, so he has some local ties. The Pros - he played in the NBA for 10 years and holds the single-game assists record. He's known as a bit of a disciplinarian, emphasizing hustle, defense, grit, and whatever synonyms you can think of for grit. He can extract the maximum production out of limited talent. The Cons - he's failed at managing player egos at every single stop. His style is abrasive and grates at the players. The Verdict - he could probably get the Pistons into the playoffs with their current lineup, but would achieve little more than that and eventually need to be replaced. Pass.
Mike Budenholzer - asst. coach, maybe reg. season 4-0 subbing for Pop Make no mistake, Budenholzer is the top assistant out there. He's been an assistant coach of the Spurs since the '96-'97 season and the number 1 assistant since 2007. The Pros - he's been going to the Popovich Coaching Clinic for about 16 years, and he knows his stuff. It's been said that Budenholzer knows the playbook better than Pop, and he also has shown an understanding of how to coach in-game. When Pop has to leave due to an ejection, there's no drop off. The Cons - little-to-no pro playing or HC experience. He played professionally in Denmark for a year and coached a couple of their minor league teams. The Verdict - he looks ready for a full-time HC job, a la Thibodeau. I hope the Pistons take him up on it.
To recap, my coaching candidate rankings are 1) Mike Budenholzer, 2) SVG, 3) McMillan, and distantly 4) Scott Skiles. Although guys like Kelvin Sampson and Patrick Ewing have interviewed for the job in the past, I don't see either of them as solid NBA coaches. Same with Brian Shaw. Another assistant that's gotten some buzz is the Bulls' Ron Adams. He might be ok, but he reminds me too much of Kuester.
The Pistons' NBA season is over (thank GOD). Thanks to an ill-timed winning streak, they went from probably picking 5th in the draft to a tie for 7th (coin flip pending). Instead of having a decent shot at one of the top 3 picks, they're down to a 3.55% shot at #1, a 4.1% chance at the second pick, and a 4.85% shot at #3. Instead of choosing between McLemore, Porter and Oladipo, the Pistons are stuck with hoping beyond hope that Oladipo slips, or settling for Muhammad (who I REALLY don't like), Bennett, or Gary Harris, if he declares. If he stays in school (which I think he probably will), it gets REALLY bleak.
There is a glimmer of a silver lining in all this. The last 10 games we got a preview of what Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe might do together. Over that stretch Monroe averaged about 18 & 10, shooting 52% from the field. Drummond averaged 11 & 8, shooting 67%. There were a lot of questions as to whether those 2 could play together, and it seems the answer is yes. Instead of clogging the paint, Monroe actually had more room to work because Drummond's defender couldn't abandon him for fear of THIS. Monroe had 5 double-doubles in the last 10 games and 4 games where he scored at least 23 points, the best of which being the Philly game.
In other Pistons news, Lawrence Frank has basically declared he's ready to move on by calling out the owner and possibly Dumars as well. They don't want to pick up his option for the 4th year, since he was out-coached in most of the games they played this year. Gores has been hinting that Frank's and possibly Dumars' heads were on the block, I think Frank eased his decision by committing NBA coaching seppuku.
I teased some Lions draft updates a couple days ago and then didn't make a post yesterday... well the wait is over. First was Kevin Seifert speculating on whether the Lions will draft for immediate impact this year or go their traditional BPA route. Some mock drafts have the Lions taking OT Lane Johnson if Joeckel and Fisher are both gone. Johnson is a bit of a project, and probably wouldn't be a plug-and-play starter.
Mel Kiper, on the other hand, released his ideal draft for every team and had the Lions trading up to #1 to take CB Dee Milliner. I think Kiper is crazy, and I'm not alone. He rounded out his "ideal" draft for the Lions by having them take DE Bjoern Werner in the 2nd round and WR Aaron Dobson in the 3rd. How exactly the Lions manage to trade up 4 spots while keeping their 2nd & 3rd rounds picks, Kiper doesn't specify. Personally I think there's no way the Lions trade up in this draft, but if they do it'll be to grab one of the OT's. I'd rather the Lions take Milliner over Johnson, since CB is still a need, but offensive line is the Lions' biggest need, and especially OT. This little tidbit was in ESPN's Rumors section:
One player who had been mentioned as a possible successor to Backus was 2012 first-round pick Riley Reiff. However, after spending a year with the Iowa product, the Lions now believe that Reiff's best fit is at RG, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
To recap, the Lions spent the 23rd pick of last draft on Jeff Backus's supposed successor, despite having greater need at CB (and a better player available in Janoris Jenkins). A year later they STILL need a successor to Jeff Backus, as well as a CB and a WR (despite spending their 2nd round pick on Broyles). 2012 was a terrible draft for Mayhew. He's in a better position this draft, but his own history is not on his side.
Quick Mayhew Draft Recap:
2012 the Lions went into the 3rd round before addressing their greatest area of need, while at the same time reaching for players like Reiff and Broyles
2011 the Lions grabbed up Fairley instead of Amukamara or any of the OL prospects who were available. This was ok, except then they drafted Titus Young in the 2nd and traded up to get Mikel Leshoure...
2010 they had a no-brainer with Suh at #2 overall, and then traded back into the 1st to roll the dice on Best, which clearly didn't pan out
2009 was the Matt Stafford draft, but the Lions also had the 18th pick in that draft which they used on... Brandon Pettigrew. Available were Michael Oher, Percy Harvin, Vontae Davis, Clay Matthews, Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt
Some of the mistakes Mayhew has made were not foreseeable, but most of them were. I'm getting nervous about this draft, especially since Mayhew hasn't put together a solid draft YET.
The Wings dropped ANOTHER game to Calgary (that's 0-3 against a team that's 17-22-4), breaking the tie with Columbus and dropping them one spot out of the playoffs. There are 5 games left to make it up, but they'll have to dig deep. This could be the first time the Wings miss the playoffs since 1990.
**Btw, the title to this post was NOT intended to be a pun, although I managed to unintentionally create a pun worthy of NHL.com***
My sister ran in the Boston Marathon yesterday. I was extremely proud, and I wanted to go to support her but a couple of extra expenses the past few months prevented that from happening. Still, both my parents went and I followed her progress online as her 5k splits were recorded. Her goal was to set a personal record of 3:26:00 or better. She was on pace to do so until her legs started cramping up with about 8 miles to go. She slowed significantly and even had to walk a couple of times down the stretch, but she managed to finish with a really good time.
I'd been texting with my mom, who was stationed about 2 blocks from the finish, trying to get more on-the-spot news. At 2:50-something, Mom and Dad were still looking for my sister. At 3:02, Mom texted me this:
Pray. A bomb or something big. People panicked.
It took about 14 more minutes before I got word that everyone in my family was ok and back together. It was a pretty freaky 14 minutes. I was praying for the safety of my family, for the other runners and spectators, and (naturally) wondering why the hell anyone would do something like this. I think my mom and dad were stationed at the corner of Fairfield and Boylston near the finish, not too far from where the second bomb went off, but weren't there when it did. Apparently the bombs were made with the intent to do damage to the greatest number of people, to maim and kill, and speculation is that the source is a domestic terrorist of some kind. I went through a gamut of emotions - fear, anger, sadness... I came to the realization that the Why Question is meaningless. Whether the person had a reason or not, whether he or she felt justified or not, the reality is that 3 innocent people are dead, many more will have to live the rest of their lives in a diminished capacity, and their families are all dealing with the aftermath. Unless done to directly protect someone, violence is just violence and there is no justification.
With that all running through my head, my wife and I went to the last Pistons home game this year. It was hard to get into a festive mood, but we managed. It was fan appreciation night, which meant that the event staff peppered the crowd with t-shirts, food and jersey giveaways, and a guy had a chance to make a 3/4 court shot for $1 million (he missed BADLY).
The game was decent. Monroe was good, so were Bynum and Singler. Stuckey and Knight spent a lot of time bouncing passes off the defense's arms (or directly into their hands), and both team's defense looked pretty lackadaisical. Drummond was ok but committed several dumb fouls (one of which he didn't actually commit) and fouled out with 5 points, 8 boards, a block and 2 steals.
I fell into a state of cognitive dissonance in that I'm glad I saw a win, but upset that the Pistons won and hurt their draft lottery chances (falling out of the #5 spot into a tie at #7 in the last couple games). Their best case scenario is now losing their last game and Washington and Sacramento winning theirs, putting Detroit at a tie for #6. Gores isn't happy about the season, and reading into his quotes, people suspect a head or two may roll.
There's some NFL Draft and Lions news, but I'll get to that tomorrow. Take care of yourselves.
