Thursday, May 17, 2018

Winter is Coming for the Pistons


The Pistons fired Head Coach/President Stan Van Gundy and their extreme long shot to hit the draft lottery didn't pan out, so they have no 1st round pick this year. The salary cap situation is pretty dire, maxed out with only trade exceptions and the MLE available to help their current personnel crisis.

What's the "personnel crisis" you ask? Well, I'm glad you asked. The Pistons are built around a pseudo-Big Three of Reggie Jackson, Blake Griffin, and Andre Drummond. Of those three, only one isn't a liability on the defensive end of the floor, only one can even make threes at an average (or better) clip, and only one can be trusted to play in at least 70 games next season. The skill sets and weaknesses in Drummond & Griffin's respective games overlap quite a bit. Reggie has played at a near All Star level once in his life. And 74% of the Pistons' cap space is tied up with those 3 players.

On top of that, the Pistons are overloaded at the PF position with Ellenson & Leuer needing minutes, and under-loaded at the wing positions with no viable starters. Kennard could grow into a starting role at SG, although he would leave the team with sub-average defenders at 3 or 4 out of 5 positions. If you could combine the strengths and weaknesses of Stanley Johnson and Reggie Bullock, you'd have a pretty nice player. Unfortunately, what the Pistons have instead is a talent deficit at the SF position.

With no 1st rounder and no cap space, how can the Pistons extricate themselves from this cluster? Well, as a result of throwing Boban Marjanovic into the Blake Griffin trade, the Pistons have a $7M trade exception. This means they can work a trade where they can take on an extra $7M of salary that won't count toward the salary cap. With LeBron and Paul George likely opting out this summer, a number of teams will be looking to clear space. 

  • Patrick Beverly, PG/SG LAC - $5.03M
    12.2 ppg, 2.9 apg, .403/.400/.824, good D
  • Justice Winslow, SF & Bam Adebayo, PF/C MIA - $6.41M combined
    Winslow - 7.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, .424/.380/.635, good D
    Adebayo - 6.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .512/---/.721, good D
  • Al-Farouq Aminu, SF/PF POR - $6.96M
    9.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, .395/.369/.738, good D
  • Terry Rozier, PG & Gueschon Yabusele SF BOS - $5.71 combined
    Rozier - 11.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, .395/.381/.772, good D
    Yabusele - 2.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, .462/.324/.682, good D
  • Brandon Ingram, SF LAL - $5.76M 
    16.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, .470/.390/.681 
The Lakers REALLY like Ingram, and while a lot of their cap space IS tied up, they can alleviate that by renouncing the rights to a guy like Julius Randle (although they'd prefer a trade). The Aminu deal isn't such a long shot though, Patrick Beverly is another name that's been floated around. Boston isn't as cap-tight as the Clippers, Miami or Portland are, but they might be interested in freeing up some space to chase a larger salaried player. Still, Scary Terry Rozier has been invaluable this season with Uncle Drew out, and they'll probably want to get more than just cap space for him. Miami is in a similar situation to the Pistons, so I could see them cutting Winslow and Adebayo loose to free up space, although they'd much rather have Whiteside be someone else's problem.

Another option the Pistons have to give their lineup a boost is the Mid-Level Exception (MLE). The MLE would give them about $8.6M to spend on a player over the cap, although if they are approaching the hard cap ($123M), they lose the MLE and get the Taxpayer MLE instead, which is only worth $5.3M. For PGs who might be available at one of those prices, I like...
  • Fred VanVleet TOR, 2018 salary - $1.3M
    8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg & .426/.414/.882 shooting in 20 mpg
    He's on the little side at 6' even, but his defense isn't terrible despite that fact. He's only 24 yrs old, and his per 36min numbers look encouraging.
  • Milos Teodosic LAC, 2019 salary - $6.3M (PO)
    9.5 ppg, 4.6 apg & .419/.379/.848 shooting in 25 mpg
    Teodosic is a good bet to opt out of his $6.3M option. He's 31 and probably looking for a long-term deal, maybe 3-4 years. The MLE might be enough to get that done.
  • Yogi Ferrell DAL, 2018 salary - $1.3M
    10.2 ppg, 2.5 apg & .426/.373/.796 shooting in 27 mpg
    Ferrell switched to more of the SG role last year, but the year before he played a lot more PG and averaged 3.7 apg. The 3P% is real, and he's only 24.
  • Raul Neto UTA, 2018 salary - $1.5M
    4.5 ppg, 1.8 apg & .457/.404/.743 shooting in 12 mpg
    Neto has always impressed me, but he's on a team loaded with PGs. I don't know how good his D is, but I think he'd flourish in a #2 PG role.
  • Zach Levine CHI, 2018 salary - $3.2M (RFA)
    16.7 ppg, 3.0 apg & .383/.341/.814 shooting in 27 mpg
    Levine's a restricted free agent, but if Detroit offered $5M/yr for him, I don't think Chicago would match. Levine's been around for a while (4 yrs), but he's only 23.
Here's the same for wings:
  • Joe Harris BRK, 2018 salary - $1.5M
    10.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, .491/.419/.827 in 25 mpg
    Harris looks pretty legit as a shooter, not so much as a creator, and he doesn't defense.
  • Seth Curry DAL, 2018 salary - $3.03M
    12.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, .481/.425/.850 in 29 mpg
    Steph's little bro basically player starter's minutes last year. He's listed at PG because he's 6'2", but he's really more of a SG. The defense isn't there, but he's got his brother's sweet shot.
  • Nick Young GSW, 2018 salary - $5.2M
    7.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, .412/.377/.862 in 17 mpg
    Swaggy P is a good player who's playing for a GREAT team, so his production is down this year. That said, I don't know if $7M - $8M would be enough to get him. 
  • Marco Belinelli PHI, 2018 salary - $6.3M
    12.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, .442/.377/.908 in 24 mpg
    Belinelli would've been a nice guy to have for the SVG era. He's just a pure shooter. He doesn't do much else, though. Honestly, I'd bring him off the bench and start Kennard, if we went that route.
  • Wayne Ellington MIA, 2018 salary - $6.3M
    11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, .407/.392/.859 in 26 mpg
    He's a bit undersized at 6'4" and a bit long in the tooth at 30 yrs old, but the guy can shoot. Not a great defender, but he's not a swinging gate either.
  • Rodney Hood CLE, 2018 salary - $2.4M
    14.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, .429/.381/.860 in 27 mpg
    He's been a bit of a controversial figure these playoffs, what with his refusing to play in the 4th quarter of a game and generally playing like garbage when not refusing to play, but prior to that he was a sought-after commodity. 
The point is, we cannot start a reboot this off-season. With no draft pick, no cap space, and to be honest, hardly any desirable trade pieces, the Pistons are in a bit of a pickle. They could try blowing it up, shipping out Drummond, Jackson and Griffin for picks and pennies on the dollar. I just don't think we can pull that off, and not very many GMs would jump at the chance to take a rototiller to the roster. Sam Hinkie's available, I heard.