I got pretty excited after the Pistons finished the first quarter of their season in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. They were 14-6, ranked 2nd in the East (although not even diehards would've assumed that would stick), and had just beaten the Celtics (#1 in the East) and the Thunder. Unfortunately, the Pistons would immediately follow their 14th win with 7 straight losses, lose their starting PG and their big FA signing to extended injuries, and just ended an 8-game losing streak with a win against Cleveland last night. Since starting 14-6, the Pistons have gone 9-20 and have dropped from the 2nd seed in the East to 9th. It's not pretty.
Injuries, regression, and poor coaching moves have been all to blame in part, but it was becoming increasingly clear that this team needed a top talent to move up a level. Well, they got one, albeit with some risks. Here are the pieces of the trade:
Pistons get -
- Blake Griffin, PF
2017-'18: 22.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG & 5.4 APG
Contract: $32.3M/yr thru 2021, with a $39M player option for 2022 - Willie Reed, C2017-'18: 4.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, & 0.6 BPG in 10.7 MPG
Contract: $1.6M thru the end of the season - Brice Johnson, PF
2017-'18: 1.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG, & 0.7 SPG in 4.2 MPG
Contract: $1.3M thru the end of the season
Clippers get -
- Tobias Harris, SF/PF
2017-'18: 18.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG & 2.0 APG
Contract: $16M in 2018 and $14.8M in 2019 - Avery Bradley, SG
2017-'18: 15.0 PPG, 2.1 APG, & 1.2 SPG
Contract: $8.8M thru the end of the season - Boban Marjanovic, C
2017-'18: 6.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, & 0.7 APG in 9.0 MPG
Contract: $7M/yr thru 2019 - 1st Rd Draft Pick
Top 4 protected thru 2020, then unprotected in 2021 - 2nd Rd Draft Pick, 2018
This was a bit hard to process. The Pistons NEEDED to do something, there's no doubt. Stan Van Gundy's rope was running out. There were a lot of rumblings among the fans that he needed to either step down as coach or get fired. This trade probably buys him time, but does it set a good course for the franchise moving forward?
On one hand, Blake Griffin is still in his prime, he's the best player we've had on our team since... well, probably the 2005 version of Billups. Griffin, much like Drummond, just improved an aspect of his game that was previously a glaring flaw - for Drummond it was FTs, for Blake it was a 3-point shot. Previously, it wasn't worth guarding Blake behind the arc. Now he's got about a league average shot for his position. He'll add scoring, rebounding, and play-making to a team that desperately needs all 3 things.
On the other hand, he's getting a LOT of money over the next several years, and Blake Griffin has been injury-prone lately. He's not a particularly good defender, and the trade shipped out our best defensive player (only under contract this year, but still). The trade severely weakened our perimeter, and it will also likely cost us this year's draft pick - a cheap potential source of talent. With 2 players now on max deals, the Pistons DESPERATELY need cheap talent. The only ways to get that are either through the draft or to get lucky.
Either way, the Pistons are going to need some luck. They need Griffin to avoid any more serious injuries - he hasn't played a full season since 2014. They need Luke Kennard to be a legit SG, and preferably a GOOD one. They either need Reggie Jackson to get healthier or to replace him with someone good enough to start. And they need Stanley Johnson to at least be a credible starter at SF, or replace him with someone credible.
I'd like to see SVG get a little more comfortable with his younger players too. Henry Ellenson barely sees the floor. Kay Felder was just added to the team and could be an offensive spark off the bench, except he hasn't even dressed for a game yet. Kennard has been one of our top 3pt shooters, but only recently went from bench afterthought to key contributor. Our defense is already going to take a hit, and giving some of these guys more minutes won't help that, but we're going to need some contributions from cheap talent, and those guys are pretty much where that has to come from.
I'd like to see SVG get a little more comfortable with his younger players too. Henry Ellenson barely sees the floor. Kay Felder was just added to the team and could be an offensive spark off the bench, except he hasn't even dressed for a game yet. Kennard has been one of our top 3pt shooters, but only recently went from bench afterthought to key contributor. Our defense is already going to take a hit, and giving some of these guys more minutes won't help that, but we're going to need some contributions from cheap talent, and those guys are pretty much where that has to come from.
The reviews of this trade, from the Pistons perspective, have basically all fallen along the lines of "desperate move, might work, but pretty risky".
- I like Zach Lowe's term "super-mediocrity"
- The headline from FiveThirtyEight was less than encouraging...
- Two different articles from The Ringer, one from Jonathon Tjarks and one from Kevin O'Connor, expand on the implications as well
Whether the move ends up being good or bad, the Pistons should be a bit more fun to watch now.
