The Lions have impressed me so far this offseason. I don't want to say they "nailed" their free agency signings, but man am I feeling good about them. When I went over potential FA targets for the Lions, I didn't look at a single offensive lineman because I felt like their line was ok enough that they could re-sign their RT and RG and hope they continue. GM Bob Quinn was less satisfied, however, and decided to let Warford and Reiff go elsewhere and overpay a bit to bring in higher-priced talent.
TJ Lang got a $28.5M, 3-yr deal, which is pretty high for RG, even one that made the Pro Bowl (rumor is that Seattle offered him $8M/yr). Pros - he's a Pro Bowl RG, he'll help our anemic running game as well as solidify pass protect, adding him simultaneously weakens the Packers while it strengthens us, and he's a hometown guy. Cons - it's an expensive deal, and Lang has a bit of an injury history.
We also signed Rick(y) Wagner to a 5 yr deal that makes him the NFL's highest paid RT. Wagner was the top rated RT in pass protect in 2014 and was good in 2016, although not as good as he was in '14. 2015 was a bit of a down year for him though. We essentially had a turnstile at RT until Reiff moved over there when Decker took over protecting the blind side. Reiff was an improvement, Wagner is better, and he's a much better run blocker.
These two signings have been the highlights of Detroit's offseason, and it should be easy to see why. First, the Lions made the playoffs last season, despite having the 30th ranked rushing attack, a passing game that didn't attack down the field, and "bend but don't break" defense that allowed nearly every QB it faced to put up near-Tom Brady numbers.
More on the defense in a bit, but back to the matter at hand. The Lions were a playoff team that probably didn't deserve to be a playoff team, only they won JUST enough games (against a weak schedule) to make it. A long-time Achilles heel of this team has been the running game. The Lions were 31st in run-blocking, according to footballoutsiders.com, and 18th in pass protection. These two additions are a bit of an overpay, but one that will allow our offense to run the ball far more effectively while still focusing on the pass. If this line gels like I expect it will, we could have one of the top offenses in the NFC. Also, we added a blocking TE in Darren Fells, an underrated move that will especially help at the goal line.
The Lions mainly used free agency to address depth issues on defense. DT Akeem Spence and DE Cornelius Washington aren't guys you want starting for you if you can help it, but it's nice having them to back your starters up. They cut DeAndre Levy, which was understandable given his cap hit and the fact that he's only played in 6 games in the past 2 years, and recorded only 16 tackles in that time. LB Paul Worrilow is another depth move, I hope, because he hasn't been starting quality for the past 2 years. The biggest move on the defensive side of the ball was to add DJ Hayden, a former 1st round pick who's been a bit of a bust. He'd be a decent nickle corner for the Lions, but wouldn't be an ideal option to pair up with Slay as your #2 CB. Lastly, the Lions recently signed WR Keshawn Martin for depth and probably to replace Andre Roberts as a returner. I'd say they probably still need to do something at LB, CB, DE, DT, and RB, either in free agency or in the draft. WR could still be addressed too, and probably S in the draft. Out of the free agents I profiled, Hightower, Poe, Minter, Hankins, TJ McDonald, Lacy, Carr, and Teo are still out there. You can rule out Teo, but the Lions still have the cap room to sign Hightower and someone else, or maybe even Minter, Hankins, and someone else. Based on the free agent signings so far, it seems pretty clear that the Lions' 2017 draft will be very defense-focused. The first pick will likely be the top CB or DE available. There's speculation that the Lions will go with the RB Joe Mixon in round 2, especially after targeting run-blocking with their top 2 free agent signings. Maybe. But the needs on the defensive side of the ball are so strong, and the Lions really don't need to spend a lot of money or a high pick to solidify their RB position.
We've got a month & a half until Draft Day, rd 1. I like what Quinn has done so far. He's positioned himself well for the draft so that he's not under pressure to make a specific pick. He still needs to nail this draft though. He's added depth to the defense (Quinn did a solid job of adding defensive depth last year as well), but there's not a lot of talent there.
Now that the NFL combine is over, it's time to take a look at the Lions' draft prospects. First, it should be said that probably WAY too much emphasis is placed on combine results. Game tape, college production, and especially performance vs. an NFL-caliber matchup should take precedence over how many times a player lifts 225 lbs, or how fast he can run in a straight line for 40 yds. Still, the combine is a useful tool that can help show us things that weren't evident on tape.
In my previous post, I stated that the Lions have needs on every level on defense. The strongest needs are at DE, LB, and CB. Offensively, they could use some insurance at RB, a real TE, and possible a #1 WR. They also need to re-sign their O line, but that wouldn't be addressed in the draft. I think the Lions should go after Dion Sims in FA to handle the TE position (DO NOT draft a TE in the first round, as good as a dude like OJ Howard looks). I like the idea of taking a DT in free agency as well, but DE and CB tend to be expensive buys and I'd rather acquires those in the draft. RB and LB could go either way, but I'm against spending either high money or a high pick on an RB.
The Lions have the 21st pick in round 1, pick #53 in rd 2, and pick #85 in round 3, so I'll take a look at three or 4 options who might be available in the Lions' range for each round.
Defensive players from Alabama, especially corners, seem to LOVE to hit. Humphrey definitely falls into that category. He is not shy about stepping in to cover the run. He's an incredible athlete, one of the top performers at his position in the 40-yd dash and the broad jump. He's a pretty good cover corner too, but his technique is sloppy and he's shown some susceptibility to the deep ball. He does play well in zone or other situations where he has time to turn and locate the ball. I think he'd be a decent #2 corner, or failing that, a Cam Chancellor-type of safety. Malik McDowell - DE, Michigan State 6'6", 276 lbs, 4.85 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 36 tackles (7 TFL), 1.5 sacks
McDowell had a disappointing 2016 (as did MSU as a whole), and that raised questions about his motor. He was banged up and that contributed to his fallen production, but there are some effort concerns as well. That said, he could be a top DE in the league, if he works out. He was probably playing a bit out of position mainly as a DT with MSU, and is expected to line up as a DE in the NFL. He'll need to clean up the technique and add some pass rush moves, but his athleticism and physique could enable him to dominate on a JJ Watt-level. It's a bit of a risky pick, but one with high upside. FWIW, many analysts don't have him going in round 1. Derek Barnett - DE, Tennessee 6'3", 259 lbs, 4.88 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 46 tackles (19 TFL), 13 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD, 2 FF
Barnett irons out some of the concerns you'd have with McDowell, so while he lacks some of the upside, he's a much safer bet. I've seen Barnett going in mocks anywhere from the #8 pick to #24, which means he'll likely be gone before the Lions step to the podium. He's not a superior athlete, but I see him as being a borderline Pro Bowler in the future (kind of like how DeAndre Levy in his prime arguably deserved to make the Pro Bowl but didn't). Corey Davis - WR, W Michigan 6'3", 213 lbs, 4.45 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 97 rec, 1500 yds, 19 TDs
I wasn't going to cover any offensive prospects for Detroit, but this guy... If you're looking for production, he's got it. He's big, he's fast, and he high-points the ball better than anybody. The downside is we have almost no tape against quality competition. He managed the WMU's only TD in the Cotton Bowl this year vs. Wisconsin, and he racked up 154 yds and a TD vs. a VERY good Michigan State team last year. This dude gets TDs, period. And he's probably the best WR in the draft. Obi Melifonwu - S, UConn 6'4", 224 lbs, 4.40 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 118 tackles (2.5 TFL), 4 INTs, 3 PDs
Dude is a safety, built like a LB, with top CB-level speed. It's like he was built in a lab. He can cover or play FS, he can tackle... He probably doesn't have the ideal instincts or reading ability you'd want from a 1st round pick, but I feel like the Lions have a good situation for him where he could be an understudy to the two veteran safeties we have who are both on expiring deals. Others to look out for in Round 1: Budda Baker S Washington, Jourdan Lewis CB Michigan. Round 2, Pick #53 overall Damontae Kazee - CB, San Diego State 5'10", 184 lbs, 4.54 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 67 tackles (3 TFL), 7 INTs, 1 TD, 8 PDs, 1 FF
Kazee lacks elite size and speed, but man can he cover. 16 picks and 27 (!!!) passes defensed over the past 3 years. I don't think you'd put him on the island right off the bat, but he could play nickle corner easily, and maybe even #2 corner in a pinch. The Lions' corner depth is pretty weak. We really only have 1 guy capable of man coverage. Damontae Kazee would be the second, if the Lions draft him. Marcus Williams - S, Utah 6'1", 202 lbs, 4.56 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 64 tackles (1 TFL), 5 INTs, 3 PD, 2 FF
Flat out, he's a cover safety. He's not the toughest tackler, but he makes an effort to defend the run, and he'll run around and knock passes out of the sky. He's got a pretty good 40 time for a safety, and his other measurables from the combine were at or near the top in his position. I'd like him to bulk up a little and work on playing the run, but he's got everything you want to cover the passing game as a FS. What I really like about him is his nose for the ball. In 3 years as a starter, he has 11 INTs, 4 FFs, and 2 FR. Zach Cunningham - LB, Vanderbilt 6'3", 234 lbs, 4.67 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 125 tackles (16.5 TFL), 3 PD, 2 FF
Cunningham made all the plays. He looks a bit skinny for a middle linebacker, but he shoots the gaps well, can play in coverage, and he can get to the QB if you blitz him (Vandy didn't blitz him last year). He does a good job of not getting blocked, but he lacks the size to fight through it when a blocker does catch him. I'd like to see him add about 20 lbs of muscle, but that ability to cover stands out. Others to look out for in Round 2: Jordan Willis DE Kansas St, Chris Wormley DT Michigan, Adam Shaheen TE Ashland. Round 3, Pick #85 overall DeMarcus Walker - DE, Florida State 6'4", 280 lbs, 4.9 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 67 tackles (19.5 TFL), 16 sacks, 2 PD, 3 FF
Walker isn't a classic speed rusher, but he's got moves and definitely can get to the QB. The Lions like to move their linemen around - Devin Taylor played some as a DT, as did Hyder - so I can see Walker's skill set fitting in here. Raekwon McMillan - LB, Ohio State 6'2", 240 lbs, 4.61 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 102 tackles (7 TFL), 2 sacks, 5 PDs, 2 FF
Probably shouldn't start on day 1, but given the Lions' weak & banged up LB corps, that's not a given. I was impressed by him at OSU, and the consensus seems to be that he's a safe bet to be an average starter in the NFL. With a late 3rd round pick, you can't ask for more than that. He's also a good match for our defensive scheme as a 4-3 strongside LB, so there's that. Rasul Douglas - CB, West Virginia 6'2", 209 lbs, 4.59 40-yd dash 2016 Stats: 70 tackles (3.5 TFL), 1 sack, 8 INTs, 1 TD, 8 PDs, 1 FF
Douglas is a juco transfer, so we really only have 1 year of production to review. But it's a pretty good year. He has elite size for the position, but not elite speed. He might be a guy who transitions to safety or plays more zone coverage, but his cover skills are pretty good. Plus, it's not like he's SLOW, he just lacks the makeup speed that top corners have. He's still faster than your average WR, and I think he size will help compensate for lack of speed sometimes. Others to look out for in Round 3: Kareem Hunt RB Toledo, Alex Anzalone LB Florida, Joe Mixon RB Oklahoma. *** Actually, Mixon starts getting interesting in round 3, so let's talk about that. Mixon is probably one of the top 3 or 4 RBs in this draft, but due to some non-football related reasons, he's not worth drafting higher than round 3 in my opinion. Lions GM Bob Quinn mentioned that he wished Mixon had been invited to the Combine, which leads me to believe that Quinn would consider drafting Joe Mixon at some point.
If you don't know the story behind the Joe Mixon incident, it goes something like this: he and some friends hit on (or had some kind of interaction with) some girl on campus, she blew them off and Mixon didn't like what she said, so he followed her into this sandwich shop. We'll call this Mistake #1, and it's a pretty big one. Nothing good ever happens after a decision like that. In one version of the events, the girl was basically telling on him to one of his teammates who she also knew, and Mixon was trying to set the record straight. Anyway, words were exchanged between the girl & Mixon and her possibly gay friend & Mixon. It sounds like one or both of them called Mixon a racial slur, he called her friend a gay slur, and it looked like he was about to walk away when she said something back to him and Mixon turned around. She reacted by pushing Mixon. He lunged at her like he was faking a punch, she slapped him in the face, and he then obliterated her with a right hook. It was fast and brutal, and it broke 4 bones in her face.
I'm not excusing Mixon's actions in any way. He was stupid, he allowed himself to be goaded to a point where he couldn't think for himself anymore, and he reacted in a way that is just never ok. What muddies the waters a bit is the fact that the girl seemed to be egging him on, she pushed and hit him first, and of course they called him the N-word, which where I come from was a license to hit somebody in the face. Not a girl, and not like that, but it definitely raises the stakes. Anyway, this was 2 and a half years ago. Mixon also had a minor incident with a parking lot attendant, so he clearly has some rage issues that he needs to deal with. The question is at what point does a player's actions become so unacceptable that you won't touch him, and which side of that line does Joe Mixon fall?
To me, the extenuating circumstances in the Joe Mixon incident put him in the "acceptable" category, but with HEAVY reservations. I wouldn't take him earlier than round 3, I would require he take some anger management classes and see a therapist, and I'd set him up with a mentor on the team to coach him in making better personal decisions. I'd rather draft any of the 3 players I profiled ahead of Mixon, but if they're all gone by then, I'd start thinking about it.
***
In my ideal draft, we'd take either Humphrey or Barnett in round 1, Cunningham in round 2, and then either Walker or Douglas in round 3. Mike Lombardi of The Ringer put out a video for how to fix each of the 32 NFL teams in just a few steps. Here's the link, if you want to watch. If you don't, here's my summary, along with some comments from me:
Fix the Defensive Line. We had no pass rush and were getting blown off the line on running plays. The Lions need to add a DT and a DE. I like the idea of getting our DT in free agency, but pass rushing DEs are expensive. Barnett would fill that role if he's available in round 1, and if he's not, Walker in round 3.
Re-sign Warford and Reiff. The offensive line is young & improving, and they're starting to gel as a unit (which I predicted last year). Keep them together.
Get an Insurance Running Back. The Lions' top 2 RBs missed most of the season, and their #3 guy missed a good chunk as well. They need to solidify this position with a cheap insurance policy. That means either a mid-to-late round pick or a cheap FA.
Get a Blocking Tight End.Ebron is NOT a real tight end. He's a big slot guy or split out. We need a guy who can block. I'd rather get that in FA.
Get Corners that can play Man to Man.We do not have good cover corners. Slay is the only one, everyone else is a nickle or dime guy trying to cover like a #2. Humphrey, or failing that, Jourdan Lewis, Kazee, or Douglas would help immensely.
I agree with Lombardi's list for the most part, but he leaves out the LB position entirely, and you could argue that LB is the Lions' weakest position. I'd like to solve that issue in both FA and the draft, which is why I profiled Cunningham and Raekwon McMillan. I also mentioned Alex Anzalone, who is a terrific athlete and he can really play the position. The problem is he never played a full college season at Florida due to injuries (nagging shoulder injury & a broken arm). What with all the problems we're having with Levy, the injuries should rule Anzalone out for us. If a dude like Reuben Foster should fall to us at 21, the Lions should run, not walk, to the podium. That's it for now. I'll touch back on the draft one Mike Mayock's mock is available, the day before draft day.
NFL free agency looms, and ESPN published their top 150 free agents. The Lions need help at every position on defense, and at WR, RB and TE on offense (in that order). The OL could stand some upgrades too, but it's less necessary if they just re-sign what they've got. So, of these 150 guys, who should the Lions target?
Upper Echelon - High Pricetag I didn't include positions like DE, CB, or RB here because those positions tend to be really expensive. I think you can do better in the draft. LB, WR, and DT are all positions of great need, and they tend to take longer for a draft pick at one of those positions to develop into a quality starter. It should go without saying, but the Lions would need to absolutely shell out to get one of these guys.
LB - Dont'a Hightower The word is he wants to explore the market, which makes it unlikely that the Patriots will re-sign him. They tend to let the higher priced vets go in lieu of overpaying. Anyway, the Lions DESPERATELY need a decent LB. MLB Tahir Whitehead ranked dead last by PFF out of all starting LBs, and Levy can't be relied upon to play another snap. Hightower will cost some cash, but the Lions need to shore up the LB position more than any other. WR - Alshon Jeffrey Even with Tate and Jones, the Lions are pretty weak at WR. I actually thought this position would be a strength, but that was assuming that Marvin Jones was capable of playing like a #2 WR, or even a #1b. He started strong, but he faded badly down the stretch. Jeffrey would give the Lions a legit #1 WR, allow Tate to move into the slot and be more of the Swiss Army WR that he should be, and Jones would be the 2nd deep threat. DT - Dontari Poe The Lions' D line was pretty terrible in rushing the passer or getting stuffs (31st in power rank, 29th in stuffs, 25th in pass rushing). They consistently were pushed back on running plays, and Haloti Ngata looks flat-out DONE. A'Shawn Robinson seems to be rounding into a nice player, but he's really all they've got. Poe is coming off of a down year, but he's been to a couple of Pro Bowls and should be, if not a star, at least the high quality DT they've lacked since Suh left.
Middle Echelon - Guys with Upside We're still talking about doing an overpay, but it'll be less drastic with this level of player, and the Lions might be in a position to offer a more modest deal with incentives. DT - Johnathan Hankins Hankins is coming off of his rookie deal and looking to get PAID. The Giants can't afford to put that much money on their D line. Hankins is a mid-level DT with upside, the hope is that the Lions could get him for about $6M/yr, plus incentives.
S - TJ McDonald The Lions are pretty old at the safety, and their two starting safeties from 2016 are both on expiring contracts. McDonald is 26, can play the ball in the air, and can hit. They could also target safety in the draft, or hope that Killebrew develops.
LB - Barry Minter It sounds like Minter is poised to leave AZ, and if the Jets call, it's a good bet he ends up there. If they don't, he'd be a great fit to take over the MLB position from Whitehead, who's been awful. Minter isn't lightning quick, but he's great vs. the run and can defend the pass. WR - Robert Woods Another solution to the WR problem would be to just get a bunch of slot WR-types, like NE, and spend all day finding holes in the defense. It sounds like Woods wants a more pass-heavy offense and more stability at QB. Provided we sign Stafford to an extension, he'll have that in spades here. Shouldn't be a hard sell.
Lower Echelon - Bargains I've stocked this category with guys who are either boom-or-bust candidates, or guys that are solid but have very limited upside.
TE - Dion Sims The Lions do not have a blocking TE on the roster. Sims isn't a big receiving threat, but he's an outstanding blocker. And while he's not the big play threat that Ebron is, Sims still has decent ability as a pass catcher. CB - Brandon Carr Basically, think of the good days we had with Rashean Mathis and that's what you can expect with Carr. He's on the older side for a DB, but he's good enough to hold down the right side and allow Slay to get a break and not have to follow the other team's #1 all over the field. TE - Anthony Fasano He's a bit long in the tooth at 32, but Fasano is still the best blocking TE in the league. His impact in the passing game would be minimal though. LB - Manti Teo He's not very durable, but he's a good LB when healthy. Teo's never completed a full season, averaging 9.5 games played, and he's coming off of a big injury. Pack his contract full of incentives, so if the injury bug bites again, you don't take the big hit. This would be a swing for the fences signing.
RB - Eddie Lacy Same thing here. Lacy was looking good before the injury. Pack in the incentives so that he's paid like a #1 back if he finishes the year with the team. I'll be back with a draft post sometime after the combine. Even filling some of these positions in free agency, we still need to draft. I'd say our draft needs are DE, CB, and LB, in that order. This defense really needs help. A lot of people have mentioned the RB Joe Mixon as a possibility for the Lions, since GM Bob Quinn mentioned his name at the combine. I don't think that means Quinn is looking to take a RB in the first or even 2nd round. Quinn had a pretty good, albeit boring, draft last year. Taking Mixon high would definitely be a step in the other direction, if he goes that way.
