May the Fourth Be With You... Always

It's May, the Pistons and Red Wings are bounced out of the playoffs, the NFL Draft is over, the NBA Draft isn't for another month & a half... Time to talk Tigers!

The Tigers are 25 games into the season and stand at a healthy 14-11, after last night's abysmal performance by Verlander. The team, like Verlander, has been pretty hot & cold, and they've gotten boosts from unexpected places while getting slumps from others. Currently, the Tigers' best hitter is NOT Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez, Victor Martinez (although he's actually 2nd best, which is also kind of a surprise) or Justin Upton, but Nick Castellanos. Nick was a pretty big prospect coming up, but he'd been a disappointment so far, both with his bat and with his glove. His batting average was in the .250s his first 2 seasons, and his HR, RBI, and other numbers were pretty mediocre. Currently he's leading the AL in hitting with a .368 BA, roughly 100 points higher than he'd ever hit before. He's got 4 HR and 19 RBI, which put him on pace for 26 HR and 123 RBI through 162 games.

It's dangerous to extrapolate such a small sample and set it as an expectation, and that's not what this is for. I'm trying to highlight his hot start, and put it in perspective with what he's done in the past. Castellanos has never had a month this hot in his career. He picked up the hitting in the last 3 months of 2016, but even then he didn't have a month where he hit .290. Based on his strong-ish finish in 2015 and REALLY strong start to 2016, I think we can expect a breakout performance from Castellanos this year. 

Victor has started well and that's a good sign. Kinsler's been really good in the leadoff spot. Saltalamacchia has filled in nicely for McCann and added some much needed pop in the bottom of the order. On the flip, Justin Upton has been striking out A TON (on pace for 252 for the season), but he's cut that down in the last 5 games and brought his average up from sub-Mendoza to .252. Cabrera's average got down to .206, but the next game he went 4 for 4 and really broke out of his slump. Since April 25th, he's on a 8-game hitting streak, during which he's popped 3 HR, 3 2B, and 6 RBI. Also, Cameron Maybin, one of the better offseason acquisitions, hasn't played yet and is due to come back soon.

As far as pitching goes... Well, the Tigers have flipped there. Historically, and last year especially, the Tigers have had pretty good starting pitching and a pretty bad bullpen. This year, Jordan Zimmerman has been excellent, but all the other starters have been mediocre to ATROCIOUS (looking at you, Mike Pelfrey). The bullpen this year has been the 8th best in baseball, according to fangraphs (the starting pitching is 19th out of 30, and without Zimmerman they'd be last). I love how good our 'pen has been, but the starting pitching is a Problem. Capital P. Verlander... ugh. He's had a couple of absolute stinkers already this year. His velocity is down, he's blaming bad pitching on his SLEEVES... I'm not optimistic. He could round up to a #2 or #3-level guy, but the Tigers either need to make a move or get a big year from one of Greene, Norris (still out with a back injury), Boyd, or Fulmer. They need a miracle.

The Tigers might be able to get by with a good offense, mediocre starting pitching, and good relieving - that formula worked for Toronto last year, although their offense was SWEET - but the offense and starting pitching has to improve or they're missing the playoffs. 

Lions Draft Recap

There are a few things we can deduce about the Lions' new GM, following his first draft. He clearly values the offensive line, possibly over all other things. He's committed to creating organizational depth. And he may possibly have brought Belichick's aversion to drafting WRs with him to Detroit. As a kid who was scarred by the Millen Era's love of the position, I'm cool with that. Actually, I like all of those qualities. Whether or not Bob Quinn has a good team of scouts and knows a good player when he sees one remains to be seen.

I've already gone over what I thought about the Lions' first pick in depth, so I won't spend too much time going over well-tilled earth. The offensive line needed a shot in the arm, and Taylor Decker is a guy who can help on day one. He can start on the right side and might eventually move over to the left as he develops. The Lions could've gone with a DE like Shaq Lawson, as DE is a huge need, but I like the pick.

I'd also stated my wishes for rounds 2 & 3. If none of the players expected to go on day 1 fell to the Lions' 2nd round pick, they could fill their DE need with Emmanuel Ogbah. Well, Cleveland picked up Ogbah right off the bat (which was funny, since he's NOT a fit for their defense), but the Lions lucked out when A'Shawn Robinson, a DT from Alabama, fell to them at pick #46. Robinson had been projected to go to the Lions in a few FIRST round mocks, so getting him in round 2 was pretty big.

The Lions unfortunately passed on a HUGE opportunity to add needed depth at defensive tackle 2 years ago, when they drafted TE Eric Ebron instead of Aaron Donald. DT wasn't a HUGE need that season, as we still had Suh, Fairley, and Mosley. The problem was, all of their contracts expired at the end of the season, and keeping any of them was going to be tricky, if not impossible. We all know what happened - we couldn't afford Suh, and we didn't want to re-sign the other two, so Mayhew patched up the D-line with a trade and a couple of FA signings. It wasn't a total disaster, but Ngata is nearing the end of his career and has shown he can't play the number of snaps he used to play.


Enter Robinson. He's a big dude at 6'4", 307, but he's also pretty athletic. This is a pic of him after the title game, and he looks like he almost could have a 6-pack. Basically, he's built as a DE but has the size and power of a DT. He can stuff the run, power rush the passer, and he eats up blocks like they're slathered in BBQ sauce. Another thing I like about Robinson is he seems to be a much better leader and teammate than Suh was. Ndomukong Suh, for all his talent and ability, wasn't a natural leader. He operated more or less as an island, and that's a problem when the guy the media wants to talk to all the time isn't the guy leading in the locker room. Anyway, HUGE steal for the Lions in round 2.

I was still thinking defense in round 3. The Lions weren't picking until the end, but I was hoping a quality LB or DE might fall to them. The LB I liked, Joe Schobert was available, and a speedy edge rusher, Charles Tapper, was on the board. A safety I liked, Justin Simmons, was also available, and safety was another big need. Quinn opted to go back to offense and draft Michigan C Graham Glasgow.

I kinda wish they'd gone defense there, but I don't mind the pick. If you'll recall, there had been some rumors swirling leading up to the draft about the Lions going with C Ryan Kelly in round 1. Reportedly they were dissatisfied with the job Travis Swanson was doing, feeling that he stunk so bad that he contributed to the bad performance we got out of Laken Tomlinson and Larry Warford last season. In that light, drafting a C was probably a must. I'd have rather taken a DE with one of their top 3 picks, but Glasgow is a quality center and should be able to push Swanson for the starting spot. He can play both G & C at a high level, and he was good enough to garner a All Big Ten Honorable Mention at his position.

The Lions took a safety with their next pick, and by all accounts they got good value there.  Killebrew has a rep as a big hitter and has the size to play the run, maybe even convert to LB. He's expected to push for PT and probably starts out on ST. The Dahl pick was interesting. Again, could've gone defense or WR there, but went with a guy who can play all 5 positions on the line. Taking Rudock raise my eyebrows, since I'm not even sure he'd develop into a quality backup QB. Another former Michigan player, CB Blake Countess, might've been the better pick there. The biggest surprise was drafting a long-snapper (who drafts a long-snapper, honestly), especially with long-time Lion Don Muhlbach still hanging around. Muhlback is 34 and has to go sometime, but did we really need to draft a LS?

The other big surprises/disappointments were not taking a CB or a WR in the entire draft. Those positions were as big a need as say DE, but the Lions at least needed depth there. It looks like Quinn will be addressing that with his undrafted FA signings, however. He's reportedly signing a CB from Ohio, Ian Wells, and a WR from Baylor, Jay Lee. Wells has decent size and speed, and he finished his 2015 season with 2 picks and at least 8 passes defensed (it could be more, as they might not have kept track of that stat in all his games). Those are nice numbers, but I don't know enough about him as a player to say whether or not he could play as even a nickel corner. Jay Lee has nice size and speed as well, but his route-running and his hands leave something to be desired.

Mel Kiper gave the Lions a B- for their draft, marking them down for not taking a WR or a CB. NFL.com gave them a B overall, also questioning the fact that they didn't address WR or CB but took a long snapper. I already gave Quinn a B+ for day 1. I'll give him an A- for day 2, getting a steal in Robinson and addressing interior O-line with Glasgow (but marking down for not addressing slightly more urgent needs). Day 3 gets a C+. I think he made a couple of good picks, but he also had some head-scratchers. His UFAs get a B. Overall, Quinn gets a B+. He gets marked down a bit for not addressing certain needs earlier and made a couple of odd moves, but his worst picks were later and not so costly (like taking a TE  who can't catch or block with your 10th pick when you already have 2 TEs on the roster), and I think he got at least 2 and possibly 4 starters out of this draft.