In the Draft, boring is good. Boring is dependable. Boring means you DIDN'T take a WR in the first round in three straight years. Historically, the Lions haven't been boring in the draft, and that's not a good thing. Excitement in the draft comes when your team trades up to get somebody, or reaches past team needs to get a perceived top pick talent who's been sliding due to some red flags. The Lions have been guilty of being too exciting in the draft, and it's come back to bite them almost every time.
First, this was a really weird draft. The top 2 picks had been traded, which almost never happens, and a whole bunch of red flags started popping up on players who had been projected to go in the top 10 picks. Going into the draft, I was hoping a chain of events would cause Jack Conklin to slide from his expected draft position at #10 to get to the Lions at #16. Failing that, I was fully ready to take the best edge rusher available or Taylor Decker. Something that screwed this up, I think, was OT Laremy Tunsil, the projected #3 pick's twitter getting hacked and a video of him hitting a bong while wearing a gas mask getting posted. Tunsil went into draft free-fall, which pushed the other OTs in the draft, Stanley and Conklin, to get taken earlier than expected.
I was legitimately considering the prospect of the Lions taking Tunsil when Miami took him off the board with the 13th pick. To tell the truth, I was relieved. Taking Tunsil would've been classic Lions, and those types of risks have NEVER panned out for us. Nick Fairley had conditioning concerns, Titus Young had character concerns, Mike Williams had talent concerns, Jahvid Best had concussion concerns... The Lions drafted them anyway and found those concerns to be well-founded.
When the Lions' pick was in, I figured Goodell would say one of three names - Taylor Decker, Shaq Lawson, or Ryan Kelly. I had begun to be concerned about Lawson's numbers being inflated and his talent overrated. It also seemed a bit early to be taking a center, but I'd talked myself into Kelly as he might've improved all three positions on the interior O-line. Still, Decker was the pick I was most comfortable with, and that's who the Lions took.
I covered him earlier in the Draft Preview, so I'll just recap in broad strokes. Taylor Decker profiles as a day one starter at right tackle, with the potential to switch to the blind side. He's solid in pass protect but known more as a road grader in the running game. He fits a need, he does it well, and he could develop into even more. Plus, I like his temperament as a lineman. He's got a mean streak, and you've got to have that. Anyway, most draft graders gave Bob Quinn a B for his first pick, but I give him a B+, because doing the safe, smart thing is SO underrated. And in Detroit, it's been SO rare.
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Tomorrow is Day 2 of the draft, covering rounds 2 and 3. The Lions have the 15th pick in round 2 (46th overall), and a compensatory 3rd round pick for losing Suh, 32nd in the round and 95th overall. When I previewed the draft back in March, my wish list of potential Lions was based on the ESPN grades of who might be available at those picks. Keanu Neal actually went 17th, right after the Lions' FIRST round pick. Karl Joseph went two picks BEFORE. And the last player I'd identified, Kenny Clark, was scooped up before the end of the first round as well. So all my round two options went earlier than I expected, but several quality players dropped.
The top guy currently available, talent-wise, is LB Myles Jack. He's a top ten talent, he's at a position of need for the Lions, but... I don't want them taking him in round 2. Maybe round 3, if he's there. But the knee injury scares me, and he's done if he needs micro-fracture surgery. Either of the Alabama DTs would be a good pick, but I expect them both to go before the Lions pick is up. Reggie Ragland would be great too, but he's probably gone as well. Kevin Dodd, a guy some people had the Lions reaching for in the 1st round, is available as well, but like the others, I think he'll be gone when the Lions' pick rolls around. So who does that leave?
If none of the guys who slid out of round one are available when the Lions are up, Kendall Fuller is a possibility. He missed all but the first 3 games last year when he had knee surgery, so he's a bit of a risk, but not as much as Myles Jack seems to be. Fuller could play corner or switch to safety in a pinch, both areas of need.
Another option in round 2 is Emmanuel Ogbah, and to be honest, this is the guy I hope the Lions get (if no one drops to them). Ogbah is a pure pass rushing DE. He's weak against the run, which isn't ideal, but you aren't going to find a perfect DE (a premium position) outside of the first round (if even then). Ogbah recorded double-digit sacks in each of his last 2 seasons, he knocks down passes and forces fumbles. He needs to work on his effort on an every down basis, and his instincts covering the run aren't all that good, but he looks everything like a disruptive force rushing the passer. I'll take that in round 2.
For round 3, the Lions don't pick until the end, 95th overall. This might be where you take Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith, both high-quality guys with injury concerns. Other options at this level are S Justin Simmons from Boston College, OLB Joe Schobert from Wisconsin, and CB Will Redmond from Miss. State. All three would struggle to start on day 1, but I would expect they would at least be part-timers, and work into a starting role after a year or two.
I like Schobert best of that group. He's a converted safety, so he's still adding bulk, but he rushes the passer well and covers well. He walked on at Wisconsin and was eventually made a captain. He finished his senior season with 76 tackles, 20 for a loss, 9.5 sacks, 1 pick, 2 passes defensed, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 forced fumbles. He's still a work in progress, which is kind of scary, considering how good his production has been. The knocks on him are his size and lack of elite athleticism, but his size will be less of a problem playing in a 4-3 system.
So there are my day 2 wishes - if none of the big names drop to the Lions, Ogbah in round 2 and Schobert in round 3. So far, I think Quinn is off to a nice start.
The NFL Draft is Thursday... that is to say, round 1 of the NFL Draft is Thursday, rounds 2 & 3 are Friday, and the rest of the thing is Saturday, because you know they're about milking as much money out of this as possible. Anyway. With the draft imminent, upcoming, looming, and whatever other synonym for "approaching" you can think of, I'd like to take a fresh look at the mocks and any hot rumors regarding the Lions.
First, the mocks. NFL.com currently has 4 different mocks out, dated this week. All 4 have the Lions taking a defensive player - either DE Shaq Lawson, DT Jarran Reed, DE Kevin Dodd, or CB William Jackson III. Any of those would be a good pick, depending on whether or not you believe in Lawson. ESPN's Todd McShay put out his 5th mock last week Thursday, and he also had the Lions taking a defensive player - DT A'Shawn Robinson. Mel Kiper released his A-Grade mock last week, prior to the Eagles trading up to #2, and he had the Lions also taking Lawson.
It's interesting that no one from the two main networks covering the draft have the Lions taking an offensive player, especially considering the offensive line was such a weak point last year. And this brings us to the hot rumor concerning the Lions. Anumberof sources, most notably Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, have tabbed Alabama Center Ryan Kelly as the Lions' pick at #16. There's a lot there to unpack.
First, the Lions already have a C, Travis Swanson, who they took in round 3 a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, he was really, REALLY bad last year, to the point where he may have been mainly responsible for Larry Warford and Laken Tomlinson's bad performances last year
Second, the 16th pick is really high to take an interior offensive lineman. There's a bit of buzz around Kelly right now, so Quinn may be looking to just pick him at 16, he may be looking to trade back, or...
He might be trying to psych out the Colts, who reportedly are really interested in Ryan Kelly. If the Colts are so enamored with Kelly that they'll trade up to pick him in front of Detroit, that might push back a player that the Lions are more interested in. If that's the case, that is some Belichick-level deviousness right there
It's very possible that Bob Quinn is interested in drafting Kelly, no matter what, and relegating Swanson to the bench. If Ryan Kelly is good enough to boost the play of 3 different positions on the line, I'm all for it. Draft him at 16, trade back, whatever. This is probably the likeliest scenario, since the Lions have supposedly interviewed everyone who ever knew Kelly several times. If it IS in fact a red herring (which I doubt, since so few people are that devious in real life), Quinn COULD be pushing a guy like OT Jack Conklin (who Mike Mayock said the Lions should SPRINT to the podium to pick if available), CB Vernon Hargreaves, or DT Sheldon Rankins back to the 16th pick, where the Lions could scoop him up.
Mike Mayock's mock draft hasn't come out yet, but normally it comes out the day before the draft (which is today, soooo... what's the holdup?). He seems to be in every team's draft room and is rarely surprised by a pick. I place a lot of weight on whoever he has the Lions taking, so I'm a bit disappointed that hasn't shown up yet. To recap, I had the Lions' top 3 options for round 1 (in order) as OT Jack Conklin (less likely a possibility now, as his stock has risen), DE Shaq Lawson (at least possible, if not likely), and OT Tyler Decker (relegated to consolation prize status). Round 1 is tomorrow, and I'll be covering round 1 and previewing round 2 on Friday.
My dad and I last went to a Pistons playoff game on April 24, 2009. Dumars had traded Billups for Allen Iverson earlier that season, Ben Wallace was long gone, and the head coach had devolved from Larry Brown to Flip to Michael Curry. In short, the Pistons were staring at the end of a streak of 6 straight conference finals appearances, and they knew it.
That game remains to this day the WORST Pistons game I've ever attended. They only lost by 11 points, but the effort from the Pistons' vets was so pathetic that the outcome of the game was never in doubt. After the game, we were pretty despondent because we knew an era had ended. THIS game 3, played almost exactly on the 7 yr anniversary of the previous one, was in many ways a mirror image of the earlier game. The Pistons lost by double digits, the Cavs were the opponent, LeBron James figured prominently, Detroit was eventually swept... But the outlook of the team is TOTALLY different from the '09 squad.
First, the game experience was pretty good. My dad sprung for the seats, so we were in a really good spot. Not at center court, but one section over from the middle, and in the upper third of the lower bowl. It was a good playoff crowd, very locked in and rooting hard for the Pistons (instead of just showing up to watch LeBron). I had a few quibbles - the Palace might be the worst arena in the league when it comes to showing the fans replays, many of the graphics were seizure-inducing, and blocking out a section of seats for a stage so KISS could play 2 songs was a TERRIBLE idea, both on the fan experience side and because it kept fans out of the building. Oh, and they need about twice as many bathrooms as they've got.
Other than those quibbles, the Palace is a pretty good place to watch a game. They have pretty good concessions (my dad and I got Halo Burger), microbrews are available all over the place, HUGE video boards, etc. I wish they'd move the thing downtown, but that's another conversation entirely. The game itself was tight, and the Pistons were basically in lockstep until 2 minutes to go. The 4th quarter has been their downfall these playoffs.
The sweep was completed Sunday night, another close game (Reggie Jackson jacked up a wild shot at the end that would've won it, if the shot had a prayer of going in). What's clear going forward is that a) the Pistons are one or 2 starters short of being really good, b) the bench is REALLY weak, and c) as a team, they lack the playoff mettle. Problem c) kind of takes care of itself, or it doesn't. Problems a) and b) require personnel moves. I don't want to speculate on trades or who the Pistons might be drafting just yet, so lets look at potential fits via free agency...
The biggest need is backup PG. It's weird to consider a bench position as the #1 need, but the reality is they only need marginal upgrades at a couple of their starting positions but a HUGE upgrade over Steve Blake. Jennings did a capable job of running the 2nd team offense, but I don't think he'd come back and I'd also just rather get someone else.
Jerryd Bayless, PG - 27 yrs, 10.4 ppg, 3.1 apg, 1.4 tov, .423/.437/.778 Bayless is coming off a $3M/yr contract. It's tough to guess what that translates to under the new cap, but he's the ideal guy to back up Reggie.
Norris Cole, PG - 27 yrs, 10.6 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.7 tov, .405/.324/.741 Cole is probably a slightly cheaper version of Bayless. He's not NEARLY as good a shooter, slightly better as a defender, and has a bit more playoff experience.
Jordan Clarkson, PG - 23 yrs, 15.5 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.7 tov, .437/.347/.804 Clarkson might be a bit of a pipe dream. He's young and good enough to start, but LA drafted their PG of the future last year. I'd love to get him, but he probably goes someplace where he can start.
Ish Smith and Ramon Sessions would be decent upgrades over Steve Blake as well.
After backup PG, I'd like to get either a starting caliber SG, PF, or a backup SG. KCP is really only half a player, so I'd rather he come off the bench. Tobias Harris is a quality player, but he might be better served coming off the bench as well, as a 6th man.
Courtney Lee, SG - 30 yrs, 9.6 ppg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 stl, .454/.378/.839Lee's still got something left in the tank. He'd start over KCP at this point, but in another year or two, I could see that flipping.
Jared Dudley, G/F - 30 yrs, 7.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, .478/.420/.735Dudley is a lot like Lee. Solid defender at 2 spots, good shooter, getting a little long in the tooth. Dudley might be a little more approachable...
Kent Bazemore, SG - 26 yrs, 11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, .441/.357/.815 I don't like paying for a breakout season, but this was one I could see coming. It feels repeatable, is what I mean. He'll be pricey though, and Stan might not want to foot the bill.
It might be worth making Evan Fournier an offer, or taking a flyer on a guy like PJ Hairston or Garrett Temple, although you might be better served by sticking with Bullock in the latter 2 cases.
Al Horford, C/PF - 30 yrs, 15.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.2 apg, .505/.344/.798Horford would be a GREAT get, but he'd be really expensive - in the $20M/yr range. Stan might have to work out a trade or a S&T to squeeze him under the payroll and add everything else he needs to add, but Horford would offer amazing roster flexibility. He could play next to Drummond and he could play C in place of Drummond. He does everything you want a basketball player to do, and he does it well.
Ryan Anderson, PF - 28 yrs, 17 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.1 apg, .427/.366/.873He's been the most-rumored guy attached to the Pistons, mainly because he flourished under SVG in Orlando and is the prototypical stretch 4. He'd be expensive though, and I don't think he does enough of the other things I want out of our starting PF to be worth what he'll cost.
Marvin Williams, PF - 30 yrs, 11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, .452/.402/.833Williams has been this guy for several years now, but the league is finally moving toward valuing his skill set. He's a combo forward, plays good D and shoots the 3.
Mirza Teletovich, PF - 30 yrs, 12.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, .427/.393/.774Basically a knockoff version of Ryan Anderson. He doesn't do much except knock down threes. If you'd rather get Ersan Ilyasova, they're essentially the same guy.
Other options, from safest to most risky, are Jon Leuer, Terrence Jones, Jared Sullinger, and Ryan Kelly.
We'll have to see how the draft goes. I hope Valentine falls to us, or at least Sabonis. We don't have a ton of space under the cap, and we need to sign Drummond to his max deal after everything else. They might be able to add a player like Horford with some finagling, but they'd have little-to-no room for anything else. Ideally, they get Bayless, one of Dudley or Fournier, and Jon Leuer in free agency and draft Valentine or Sabonis.
