NFL Draft Preview

We're a month away from the NFL Draft. The Lions blew a shot at getting one of the top picks by winning 6 of their last 8 games, so they're stuck hoping to get lucky with the 16th overall pick. They lost Calvin Johnson to retirement in the offseason, and they didn't make much of a splash in free agency. Their signings were headlined by WR Marvin Jones, a solid receiver who will share the responsibility of replacing CJ's production with Golden Tate. After Jones, Detroit didn't do much. They flirted with LT Russell Okung (the guy I REALLY wanted them to sign), but they didn't wow him with an offer and Okung ended up in Denver. They got safety and DB depth, and they re-signed a bunch of people (Ngata, Tyrunn Walker, Crezdon Butler, Mulbach, Whitehead, Orlovsky, etc.), but they're still left with some major holes on the team.

As disappointed as I am with Detroit's offseason, I don't mind the strategy as much as I mind what it indicates. If Detroit had gone out and thrown money at Okung or one of the other big names on the market, new GM Bob Quinn would have been saying "I think we're only a couple of players away from contending." By primarily adding depth instead of making a splash, Quinn is essentially saying "I know what a championship roster looks like, and this is nowhere close." Years of bad drafting by Millen, followed by years of bad drafting under Mayhew, left the Lions like a house built on a Styrofoam foundation. The Lions might as well not even have shown up for the 2010 & 2011 drafts, since no player from either draft is still on their roster. Only 2 players remain from the 2012 draft, and the 2014 draft also looks to be a bust. Quinn has used this free agency period to try to rebuild the depth that should've come from the last 6 drafts.

With depth issues somewhat addressed by free agency (their DT signings/re-signings enabled the Lions to put off addressing that position in this year's draft), what does that leave? The Lions have some holes in their roster, and there's also certain positions that you constantly need to re-up every few years. For example, I'm of the opinion that you should be taking either an OL or a DL in the first round in 1 out of every 2 drafts (45% of the 22 guys you put on the field is a lineman of some stripe). Anyway, take a look at the list of needs the Lions have, as I see it:

1. Offensive Tackle. They essentially passed on the chance to get Okung in free agency, and they had one of the worst O-lines in the NFL last year. They couldn't pass-block, and they DEFINITELY couldn't run-block. Riley Reiff projects as a better RT than LT, so they could shore up both tackle positions by taking a solid LT. The #16 pick is a little low to get a guy who can start at LT his rookie season though, so they may end up drafting a prototypical RT. That wouldn't be the worst thing either, since the run-blocking needs so much help.
2. Defensive End. After Ansah, the Lions don't really have a guy that puts the heat on opposing QBs. Jason Jones hasn't been re-signed yet, and he's only a mid-level talent at best anyway.
3. Linebacker. Normally I'd differentiate between OLB & ILB, but the LBs they have are flexible enough that the Lions could take either an outside guy or an inside guy and be ok. Last year's ILB, Stephen Tulloch, is supposed to be released from the team, but for some reason that hasn't happened yet. DeAndre Levy is still recovering from last year's injury, which is a major concern. Right now, it looks like the LB corps would be Levy & Bynes on the outsides and Whitehead in the middle. Kyle Van Noy is their backup, and he's playing entirely out of scheme (Van Noy is a classic 3-4 OLB, which is not the defense the Lions run. Again, that one is on Mayhew for drafting him). Ideally, they'd draft an LB that would allow Bynes to slide out of a starting role, and then they'd trade Van Noy to a team that would actually use him correctly.
4. CB/Safety. We always need a CB. Slay looked REALLY good in spots last year, and he could be turning into a top cover corner. Quandry Diggs was ok, but you need more than 1 good corner these days. I'd feel a lot better with another guy at Slay's level or better, which would allow Diggs to play as a slot corner. Safety is also a need. Ihedigbo was mostly bad last year, so the Lions will let him go elsewhere. They let Isa Abdul-Qudus sign with someone else, which was a mistake. Qudus looked like a player. The Lions signed a safety in free agency, but that was a depth move. They need to draft one.
5. WR/QB/TE. I put these three positions in the same category. WR is a need because they really only have 2, and you need 4 who can make plays. I'd have rated QB #1 if the Lions had a higher pick, but with the 16th pick, you're looking to draft a backup. TE makes the list because Pettigrew can't catch & can barely block, and Ebron can barely catch & can't block. They need someone who can do both. I'd really like to see them draft a sure-handed TE who mainly blocks, but sometimes steps out and catches the little TE pop pass. I don't need him to be Tony Gonzalez or Mark Whitten.

So who would I like to see the Lions draft? With the 16th pick in the 1st round, they're not going to get a TOP top guy, but they can still do pretty good. They've also got the 15th pick in the 2nd round (46th overall), and a compensatory 3rd round pick for losing Suh that would translate to the 33rd pick in that round (95th overall). They've got a bunch of later-round picks too (1 in the 4th, 2 in the 5th, 3 in the 6th, and 1 in the 7th), which shouldn't be discounted, but I'm just going to speculate on their top 3 picks, since I don't have all day to evaluate prospects.


Three Options for 1st round, pick #16:


Jack Conklin - OT Michigan State
6'6", 308#
40  time: 5.00 sec
Bench: 25 reps



I picked the OSU game because it's probably the best example of what Conklin can do when facing top talent. He's not an elite pass-blocker, but he could step in and start on the right side of the Lions' O-line on day one.


Shaq Lawson - DE, Clemson
6'3", 269#
40 time: 4.70 sec
Bench: --
2015 tats: 59 tackles, 24.5 for loss, 12.5 sacks




Lawson ran one of the better 40-times for a DE at this combine, although it's not reflective of what an elite edge rusher would run. He finished 2015 with 95 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and an amazing 25.5 tackles for loss, which led the nation. That's not a TON of sacks, but it's not bad. He's a great run defender and a decent pass defender, and with some improvement on his technique, he could be great at both.


Taylor Decker - OT, Ohio State
6'7", 310#
40 time: 5.23 sec
Bench: 20 reps






Decker is a lot like Conklin. He's a great run-blocker and an adequate pass-blocker. He'd likely start as a RT, with the potential to move over to LT at some point. He matched up pretty well against Shilique Calhoun, an NFL-level prospect. He got beat on a couple of plays, getting too upright in his stance, but for the most part he was pretty good.


ILB Reggie Ragland of Alabama wouldn't be a bad pick here as well. Although DT is now more of a luxury pick than an immediate need, I wouldn't be mad if Quinn opted for one of the DTs who might be available in this range, like Alabama's Jarran Reed or Louisville's Sheldon Rankins.


Three options for 2nd round, pick #46:


Keanu Neal - S, Florida
6'0.5", 211#
40 time: 4.62 sec
Bench: 17 reps
2015 stats: 84 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 int, 1 PD






Neal is a classic big-hitting, ball-hawking safety. None of the big hits in his highlight reel would be penalties in the next level, and he's doing it to players of all sizes - WRs, RBs, and TEs. His 40 time is a bit of a concern, but he's run it much faster at about 4.53 sec, so he may have just had a bad combine. He'd be the ideal type of guy to replace Ihedigbo.


Kenny Clark - DT, UCLA
6'3", 314#
40 time: 5.06 sec
Bench: 29 reps
2015 stats: 73 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks, 5 PD






I know DT isn't on my list of needs, but I think the Suh situation last year showed that you can't always put things off. Ngata is old, Walker spend a good deal of last season injured, and no one else looks talented enough to step up. Enter Kenny Clark. He's like a poor man's Suh, at least as a prospect. He's good against the run, and he has potential to be good against the pass.


Karl Joseph - S, West Virginia
5'9.5", 205#
40 time: 4.55 sec
Bench: --
2015 stats (4 games): 20 tackles, 1 sack, 5 INTs, 1 PD 
2014 stats: 82 tackles, 4 for loss, 1INT, 3 PD 






Karl Joseph is like Neal, only with better hitting & tackling, and with worse coverage. I'm kinda ok with that. The Lions suck at stuffing the run, and a big-hitting, hole-stuffing safety would be just what the doctor ordered.


Three options for 3rd round, pick #111


Kendall Fuller - CB, Virginia Tech
5'11.5", 187#
40 time: 4.49 sec
Bench: 15 reps
2015 stats (3 games): 7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PD
2014 stats: 54 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 13 PD






Fuller is really a 1st or 2nd round-level talent, but injury concerns push down his value. He missed all but 3 games in 2015 to a knee injury, and apparently his medical review at the combine didn't go well. On the plus, he's got great cover skills, and he racked up a bunch of interceptions in his previous 2 college seasons. He has 2 brothers already in the NFL, Bears CB Kyle Fuller and Lions WR Corey Fuller. ESPN has a 2nd round grade on him, but it sounds like the injury concerns will push him into the 3rd or 4th round.


BJ Goodson - ILB, Clemson
6'0.5", 242#
40 time: 4.69 sec
Bench: 30 reps
2015 stats: 108 tackles, 14 for loss, 5.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 3 PD


Goodson doesn't have top end speed, but he's STRONG, and that's more important for a Mike linebacker. He probably wouldn't start in year 1, but could develop into a defensive centerpiece in the future.


Kenny Lawler - WR, Cal
6'2.5", 203#
40 time: 4.64 sec
Bench: --
2015 stats: 52 rec, 658 yds, 13 TDs, 0 fum






The counting stats (other than TDs) don't wow you and that 40 time looks weak, but Lawler's non-Combine 40 time was a full tenth faster, and Cal REALLY spread the ball around on offense (5 guys with over 500 yards, and 6 guys with at least 40 catches). Lawler's got good hands, pretty good route running, and excellent body control. He's the guy Cal had running comeback routes and bubble screens, and he led the team in catches and TDs. The Lions need more of this type of WR, the possession receiver, less of the guy who is just going to try to blow by his coverage. Those guys take forever to get open, and Stafford doesn't have the time.

I don't do this for a living, and I don't watch a ton of college football, so there may be better guys out there that I'm not aware of. This was a best guess at who would be available at each pick, based on ESPN's prospect rankings, and addressing need and positional value with each pick. Having watched tape on everybody (with the exception of Goodson, who weirdly didn't have a highlight reel), the round 1 & 2 guys look like they have the potential to start on day 1. The round 3 guys would at least be solid bench contributors in their rookie season, with the exception of Fuller, who could start if he's healthy. That should be a baseline goal from your draft - get starters in rounds 1 & 2.


This is the first Lions draft since 2000 that isn't being managed by either Matt Millen or someone from his "tree". In that time, they've had 3 good drafts, 2 so-so drafts, and 10 bad ones (subjectively, as opinions vary what constitutes a "good" draft). I've got high hopes. Quinn has a good pedigree, and he hasn't been poisoned by the organization (yet). Will he continue to exercise patience and build the team the right way, or will he jump the gun and go for a QB or WR in the first round?

Good bye, Calvin

If you've been living in a cave for the past 3 months, you probably still know that Calvin Johnson announced his retirement from the NFL this week. A lot of people are drawing comparisons between Calvin and Barry Sanders, and that's pretty natural.

• Both players were career Lions
• Both guys were EXTREMELY mild-mannered players who let their play on the field do the talking
• Both players retired with something left in the tank (Barry especially, still in his prime and just 1 season away from his best ever)
• Both players are in the conversation for best ever at their respective positions - Barry in the mix at RB with Walter Payton and Jim Brown, Calvin in the mix with Jerry Rice and Randy Moss
• And neither player had much (or any) post season success

That last point (combined with the 2nd point) leads many to conclude that playing for the Lions killed both players' desire to play professional football. I think that's likely the case with Barry, but not so much with Calvin. Barry had a bit more of a competitive edge and stronger leadership qualities. Calvin famously never made team speeches. After his historic 329-yd game against Dallas in 2013, Schwartz handed him the game ball and all the players chanted "SPEECH" as a joke. Calvin said something like "why start now" or "thanks", and that was that.

Anyway, I always got the impression that Barry took losing a little more personally than Calvin did. When the Lions lost to the Bucs in the 1998 playoffs, Barry said he cried for 3 months. Calvin seems to be more of a "punch the clock" type of guy, not taking the losses home with him. The biggest difference between the two players, however, is HOW each left the team. Barry announced his retirement by a fax to his hometown newspaper in late July of '99. It was a shock, and it left the team with absolutely no opportunity to replace him. Calvin, on the other hand, gave the Lions plenty of forewarning that his retirement was imminent, and retired prior to the opening of NFL free agency. The Lions got his presumptive replacement on day 1.


It would be very "Lions" to lose 2 of the greatest football players ever due to "Lionization" (the cumulative effect of losing and incompetence crushing your spirit), but that's not entirely the case. It is with Barry, and that story is one of the great career tragedies in football that doesn't involve an injury. But with Calvin, he just wanted to hang up the cleats while he still has all his fingers and can remember his own name. He might've wanted to stick it out if the Lions were building a contender, but he might have retired anyway. Calvin is just a different sort of dude.

Anyway, regardless of what the Lions were doing, you had to appreciate Calvin.




Calvin had more straight-line speed than jukes, but he could do some damage in the open field because he was built like a TE, but he could run past your #1 corner. He also came up with more jump balls in triple coverage than anyone I can remember. In fact, the Lions saw some pretty weird defenses that were designed purely to keep the ball out of his hands. I wish they had used him better, I wish he'd had better QBs, and I wish the Lions could've done a better job of keeping defenses honest by running it more effectively. Calvin managed to overcome all that to accomplish a lot of individual success.

***


Now that Calvin is out the door, it does leave a rather large hole to fill on offense, but less of a hole than you might think. Calvin BARELY made the Pro Bowl this year, and I think that was largely based off of reputation, since there were between 2 and 4 other WRs that were better but didn't make the initial cut. A couple of injury-riddled seasons took their toll, and CJ went from a Jerry Rice-type season in 2012 to playing more like latter day Cris Carter the last 3 years, that is to say he was an exceptional possession receiver.


The Lions are replacing Calvin with former Bengals WR Marvin Jones. He was probably the best guy available once Alshon Jeffrey was franchise tagged by Chicago, and he's relatively affordable at $8M/yr. Jones has burner speed (along with some of that Golden Tate-like shiftiness), good hands, and has a reputation for making tough catches through the hits. He's also never fumbled in his NFL career. He turns 26 tomorrow (happy birthday!), so he should be just entering the prime years of his career.






The Lions also acquired a few solid depth guys looking to compete for PT - former NE S Tavon Wilson, special teams ace CB Johnson Bademosi, and DT Stefan Charles. None of these guys are world-beaters (although a good ST specialist can make a huge difference), but this is the kind of thing you need to do when the previous regime sucked at drafting. Like the post-Millen Lions, this team is depth deficient and needs to rebuild.

Detroit could still be looking to make a splash though. OT Russell Okung is in town today, and he's easily the biggest name on the market if you're looking to boost your line. He's been plagued by injuries throughout his career, so he would be a bit of a risk, but that should drive the price down as well. If Okung ends up elsewhere, I still expect the Lions to find a tackle, but probably not one who will be good enough to swing Reiff to the right side of the line.


***

I'll get into the draft in a week or two. I missed the combine coverage because my son was born! Good reason, I know. His name is Cirdan (pronounced KEER-den... it's a Tolkien thing, because I'm a nerd) and he's a big dude so far - 10lbs 0.8oz, 21.65" at birth, currently 10lbs 6oz, 22". I don't know what his 40 time is yet, but I'll let you know once he becomes mobile. My daughter's  might not be terrible, if she could run that far without stopping to investigate some rocks or dirt or something.