The 2015 NBA Draft is over, and man was it an emotional rollercoaster. Heading into the draft there were some trade possibilities, some potentially Machiavellian maneuvering, and a list of potential draftees as long as my arm. I was hoping that either Mario Hezonja or Justise Winslow would slip past the Denver Nuggets at #7, but if not I was resigned to talking myself into Stanley Johnson. Well, we got Stanley Johnson, but not in the way that I expected.
In order for either Hezonja or Winslow to slip to the Pistons at 8, 3 different things needed to happen.
Those were the 3 main things I was rooting for as we went pick by pick. Minnesota took Karl-Anthony Towns first overall, no big surprise there. The Lakers took D'Angelo Russell #2, which wasn't a surpise but it threw the first thing I needed to have happen in jeopardy. LA was a 50/50 shot to take Okafor, they didn't. Philly had the #3 pick and already had taken big guys in the last 2 drafts. I thought Mudiay might've been the pick there, or Porzingis, or... who knows. GM Sam Hinkie is pretty unpredictable. He took Okafor.
This screwed the Knicks at #4 big time. They desperately wanted Okafor or Russell. I thought Mudiay would've been a good consolation prize, but they went with Kristaps Porzingis. This drew a strong reaction from the New York crowd.
My favorite was the kid who was trying to boo while taking several selfies of his cryface. I can't take your anguish seriously if you're more concerned about posting pictures of it to social media. I felt bad for Porzingis. It's not really his fault Philly took Okafor. I thought he was one of the best 3 guys available at that point, and I hope he shoves it in the Knicks fans' collective face. Anyway, Porzingis going 4th meant Orlando was grabbing Hezonja (the guy I wanted most). That left Mudiay and WCS still in the wind, and Winslow as the top guy available on most draft boards.
The next two picks were pretty intense. WCS went 6th to Sacramento, knocking down my 2nd requirement to get Winslow. Mudiay then went 7th to Denver, filling requirement #3. Winslow was available. Then Adam Silver announced Detroit was drafting Stanley Johnson. I was pretty frustrated.
A lot of people have compared us taking Johnson over Winslow to how we took Kentavious Caldwell-Pope when Trey Burke was available. The fans really wanted Burke, KCP was a "meh" prospect, but Dumars went with KCP. I actually don't think that's the best example. A better hypothetical example would be if the Kings had taken someone else (say, Burke or someone like that) ahead of the Pistons, leaving Ben McLemore available, and the Pistons still had taken KCP. McLemore was a better prospect who played the same position as KCP, like Winslow and Johnson.
Comparing the two prospects, Johnson is slightly taller, not really longer, but more muscular than Winslow. On the other side, Winslow is more athletic, shot the ball better, and defended better than Johnson did last year. I saw a lot more of Winslow in the NCAA tournament than I did of Johnson, and Winslow impressed the hell out of me. Johnson did not. That doesn't necessarily mean that Winslow will become a better pro than Johnson, but he was certainly a better prospect.
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Moving past what-might-have-been, what is the outlook for the Pistons going into the 2015-2016 NBA season? What did they actually get in the draft? Pick #8, Stanley Johnson - SF Arizona Age: 19 yrs old; Ht: 6'6.5"; Wt: 242 lbs College Stats: 13.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.7 asts, 1.5 stls, .446/.371/.742 shooting %s
Look, he's not bad. He's pretty good on catch & shoot threes, he's a solid defender, and he has an ok handle. I'm a bit worried about the rest of his offensive game. If he wasn't shooting a 3 or scoring on a fast break, most of his other buckets came off of floaters in the lane. This wasn't a very high % shot for him in college, and it'll be worse in the pros. He needs to develop a better face up game, and probably work on his post game as well. He has the size & strength to guard LeBron and not get backed down. I'm not sure he's as quick as he needs to be. We'll have to wait and see. Detroit should be a much better defensive team next year, at any rate.
Hilliard is a 4-yr college player, so he has less upside than does Johnson, but he should be a solid backup. He'll play either the 3 or the 2 off the bench, and he basically comes in as a somewhat unathletic 3 & D guy. Given the dearth of depth at the 3, I think he plays right away. Free Agent Needs Now that the draft is over, we can start thinking about filling the remaining holes in free agency. Monroe is gone, we'll probably re-sign Reggie Jackson, but it gets murky after that. They might explore trade options for Brandon Jennings, but more likely they'll keep him and hope he boosts his trade value when he comes back from his injury. That leaves 3 or 4 possible positions to fill: backup C, PF, SF, and SG. There are a number of solid options at backup C. Robin Lopez, Omer Asik, Marreese Speights, and Brandan Wright could all be had for something in the $3M - $6M range. Alexis Ajinca is a very solid, low-budget option, or they could take a flyer on a guy like Jeff Withey. At PF, the Pistons could throw their checkbook at LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, or even Millsap and hope they say yes, pushing newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova into a backup role. They could take a middle road and go for someone like Thad Young or Brandon Bass to compete for a starting role (Ilyasova probably keeps his job in that scenario), or they could go for depth and get a backup like Ed Davis or Amir Johnson. SF is less of a need now, but I think the Pistons still need depth there. It's looking less and less like Detroit could even sign a 2nd tier option at this position, given that they really do need to spend at PF and they used the 8th pick to draft a SF. None of the 2nd tier guys would come here to either backup or caddy the starting SF spot for Stanley Johnson. I think Omri Cassipi or Jared Dudley could be had off the bargain bin and flourish in Van Gundy's system. Khris Middleton would be a slightly more expensive option, but I'd really like to get him back (not one of Dumars' better trades).
The Pistons have a glut of SGs, but none of them are very good. KCP took a nice step up last year, but his shooting numbers still weren't ideal. It doesn't really make sense to sign a SG, especially if Meeks' 3P% in the last 2 months of the season indicate he's worked out his shooting woes. However, based on the uncertainty at this position, SVG shouldn't rule anything out. That goes for PG as well, except that there aren't any good PGs available.
I'd like to see Detroit sign Alexis Ajinca for $1M/yr, at least make an offer for Aldridge (it won't happen though) and ultimately end up with Bass or Davis for about $5M/yr, and then sign Middleton for around $8M - $10M. Milwaukee can match for Middleton, so if we want to get him, it'd have to be an overpay. If we were able to pull that off, here's what the Pistons' depth chart would look like next year: PG: Jackson/Jennings, Dinwiddie SG: KCP, Meeks SF: Johnson, Middleton PF: Ilyasova, Tolliver, Davis C: Drummond, Ajinca
All things considered, that team could make the playoffs in the East. No way they get home court, but they could be as high as a 6th seed. I tend to be overly optimistic though, and their floor is probably 30-ish wins again. I'd certainly like their odds better had they drafted Justise Winslow.
I haven't posted since May 22, mainly because it's kind of dead around here. The Pistons aren't in the playoffs and the NBA Draft isn't for another week yet, the Wings got bounced in round 1 and predictably named Blashill their new HC. There is little going on with the Lions & U of M right now, and the Tigers are basically grinding until they get healthy. There's a little to talk about there, but I'd rather lump it into one post instead of trying to stretch it into something weekly or bimonthly.
First, los Tigres. Verlander finally got healthy(ish) and pitched ok on Saturday (5 inn, 5 walks+hits, 2 ER, 2 Ks, no decision). My expectation is that Verlander becomes Detroit's #2 starter and solidifies the rotation, not that he becomes a second ace. He's older, still kind of recovering, and the decreasing velocity on his fastball is well documented. He'll be an upgrade over Lobstein and the pu-pu platter of fill-ins that were spot starting in Verlander's spot. He'll stabilize the rotation and probably give the Tigers an extra 6 wins that they wouldn't have gotten with replacement-level starters.
At this point, they're waiting for Alex Avila and Victor Martinez to return, neither of whom is on a firm track to get back soon. Without Victor, there's not a lot of pop in the lineup. Only Cabrera, JD Martinez, and Cespedes have more than 4 HR on the season. Avila, for all of his offensive shortcomings, is SORELY missed for his game calling (ESPN recently rated Alex Avila as the 2nd best catcher in baseball for calling pitches). James McCann is a bit better on offense, but not nearly as good on defense. As infuriating as it is to watch Avila stand next to the plate and watch strikes pour by, I'd really like to see him behind the plate watching strikes pouring in.
Last Tigers thing - the MLB All Star Game. All Star voting has been a crock for a long time, especially in baseball. While fan voting has tipped the NBA from time to time (hello, Yao), there's a long history of undeserving candidates getting voted into the Mid-Summer Classic (hello, Jeter). Still, it comes as a bit of a surprise that Miguel Cabrera, best hitter in baseball, might not start in the All Star Game. This is the problem with fan voting - if one particular fan base (in this case, Kansas City) decides to vote for all of their players, regardless of merit, it skews the results. The Royals have a decent case for maybe 2 of the 9 players currently slotted to start in the game, catcher isn't one of them. So vote early, vote often, vote Cabrera. You can resubmit your vote up to 35 times total, and voting ends 7/2/15 at noon.
My AL Ballot C - S. Vogt, OAK 1B - M. Cabrera, DET 2B - J. Kipnis, CLE SS - X. Bogaerts, BOS 3B - J. Donaldson, TOR DH - N. Cruz, SEA OF1 - Mike Trout, LAA OF2 - Yoenis Cespedes, DET OF3 - J. Reddick, OAK
I could've voted a Royal for OF (Lorenzo Cain), but screw them for messing with the voting process. Omar Infante, really? This is a guy who his own team is looking to replace at 2B, he's that bad. I could've slotted JD Martinez at that 3rd OF spot, but I didn't want to be too much of a homer. My NL ballot was more cursory, but I had Posey at C, Goldschmidt at 1B, Panik at 2B, Tulo at SS, Frazier at 3B, and Harper, Stanton, and Pollock all in the OF spots.
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The Pistons made a sort of under-the-radar move, acquiring Milwaukee Bucks PF Ersan Ilyasova for Caron Butler and Shawne Williams, 2 guys that Detroit was probably going to cut anyway. Ilyasova right now is a much better player than the other 2 guys in the deal, so this was a straight salary dump for Milwaukee. As far as Detroit is concerned, Ilyasova provides a MUCH better complement to Andre Drummond than Greg Monroe did, although Monroe is a better player. Ilyasova, shoots the three, and well, although his 3P% can fluctuate. Despite not being as good as Monroe, I expect the Pistons' offense to flow much better with him at the 4. Plus, he may be a backup or a 6th man, depending on how the draft and free agency go.
Speaking of free agency, you would think that taking on an $8M/yr would hurt Detroit's chances at landing a top FA, but not so. The actual impact of this move on the Pistons' salary cap is fairly minimal, giving them enough room to sign 2 or 3 quality FAs, their draft picks, and to match whatever Reggie Jackson is offered (if anything). I'd like to see Detroit get a couple of SFs, at least one of whom should be a pretty good player, another PF, and a backup C. This would be through a combination of free agency, the draft, and a possible sign & trade that sends Greg Monroe some place like NY.
There are some movings and shakings going on with the draft, but that deserves its own post, so I'll save that for next week some time.
My wife's brother is getting married, and this past weekend was his bachelor party. The bachelor party consisted of a camping & canoe trip up north, on the Pine River. It was all good times, with good food, a little bit of drinking, and some games like horseshoes, bocce, and a thing called Kan Jam, which was pretty cool. But let me get to the canoe trip.
This isn't me, but this is the stretch of river we canoed. Actually, we did about half of this stretch. Anyway, it was kind of chilly (I'm guessing mid-low 60's) and the water was COLD (we were told 57 degrees). Additionally, the river was a foot high due to rainfall during the week, and it was even faster than usual (the Pine is the fasted river in the LP). This made for a very interesting trip.
Side note: if you're canoeing a river with any kind of rapids, get a plastic or fiberglass canoe. Both my paddling partner & I were more familiar with aluminum canoes, so that's what we went with. This was a bad idea.
The people at the canoe livery strongly suggested water rafts for everyone. Half our group went that route, but not I. Three guys opted for kayaks, which I have no experience with, and four of us chose canoes, 1 plastic and 1 aluminum. The livery guy kind of shrugged at the aluminum canoe, which should've been a sign.
Anytime we hit any kind of rapids (which was often), anytime either of us shifted in the canoe or dug deep with our paddles, or anytime somebody else (usually the guys in the other canoe) pushed our boat, we rocked like crazy. The body of the canoe was too stiff and we were sitting up too high. We ended up dumping in the river 3 times. Finally, we sat on our knees and managed to navigate some pretty rough water without much difficulty. I'm convinced we would've stayed out of the river had we either used a plastic canoe or paddled the whole river on our knees.
Regardless, we got soaking wet in freezing cold water, we got banged around by logs, rocks, and the canoe itself (I'm still sporting a bruise on my arm 4 inches long), and it was loads of fun. I'd have preferred to stay out of the river, but I still loved the experience. I wouldn't attempt this river in a canoe unless you had some experience (I can claim some canoe experience, not a TON) and you're paired with someone who has some experience. Otherwise, take a raft and enjoy yourself.
