Let's review the Pistons' performance through the first 8 games of a VERY young season, with a new coach and several new players (the short version - it's been bad).
First, the 2 main contributors Stan Van Gundy brought in this year (Cartier Martin and Jodie Meeks) have logged a total of 0 (that's ZERO) minutes of regular season basketball. Second, Greg Monroe missed 2 games for a DUI suspension, so Detroit's already anemic offense was further handicapped. Third, the Indiana Pacers were supposed to contend for a title this year before they lost their best player in Paul George, and now they have a worse record than Detroit. So maybe let's reel it in a little and wait for a) Martin and Meeks to get healthy, b) SVG's offense to gel a little, and c) the struggling young players to figure it out.
I think the poor starts by KCP and Drummond have a lot to do with people not knowing their roles. Jennings doesn't know when to pass or when to shoot. Drummond is trying to hard to create and is fouling out. KCP can't figure out where he fits in on offense, and he's probably playing 5-10 too many minutes per game right now (going from <20 last year to >35 this year). Check the worst 3 players on Detroit, based on VORP (value over replacement player):
Ok, it's a little hard to read. The bottom 3 names are Kyle Singler 9th, KCP at 10th and Drummond at 11th. The offense has been terrible across the board, with Greg Monroe as the only bright spot (and by bright spot I mean "less dim"), but KCP and Singler are emblematic of the general team malais. Drummond, like everyone else on the team, has not shot well (okay, a drop from shooting .623% to .420% is basically falling off the cliff), but his major problem has been the fouls.
Right now the team is 2-6 (with wins over NYK & MIL) and you can literally SEE the fight going on between a team that has been rudderless/leaderless since 2008 and a coach who is trying to mold a team in his image (not literally, thank god). This is like rehabbing a house. SVG shows up wanting to open up the floor plan, update the kitchen and finish the basement, but then he does some demo and discovers the wiring is all messed up and he has a mold problem.
Jalen & Jacoby discussed a variation on this problem that the Cavs are having right now on their podcast - namely, that the young Cavs players are having trouble molding themselves to a style of play that translates to winning. The Pistons don't have any super stars coming in to provide a clashing element to the incumbent players, but the problem is very similar. They have adapted their style of play to fit the situation. SVG is trying to bring them out of the muck, but it's an arduous process.
This 2-6 start is about what I expected from the Pistons, but I really expected better games from Drummond and KCP. They aren't this bad and they'll get better, especially as Martin and Meeks get healthy. I'm still expecting a move from SVG to swap out either Jennings or Smith (or both) for a player he can use, but that's a couple of months away. This team as constructed is probably a .500 team, but it'll be at least another month until they start playing like it.
Actually, they remind me more of your classic sports movie team, like Major League's Cleveland Indians, when they're just a bunch of misfits and before they have that galvanizing moment that gives them purpose and gets them to use their talents together. I don't know if SVG will have that Lou Brown moment... in real life these things don't usually pan out. Right now Drummond is trying to figure out who he is, Josh Smith is trying to deny who he is (which is anything and everything other than a shooter), and the 2 guys SVG brought in to help his offense work are both injured. This is going to take a minute.
The other move, trading for Anthony Gose is a bit of a risk for a team trying to win a title. Gose doesn't hit much (.226 w/ 2 HR last year) but he's fast (15 SB in half a season) and he plays a decent CF.
Yeah, he's in LF in this clip, not CF, but that is a NICE throw. Now they mention that he was way off-line on an earlier throw, but Rajai Davis didn't make that throw all year. Neither did JD Martinez. Ezequiel Carrera wasn't actually that good defensively, despite that nice diving catch vs. the Yankees in his first start. There weren't many good options for CF (or any, depending on how you feel about Rasmus) short of making a trade. Well, they made a trade and picked up a 24 yr-old no-name guy with some promise. I'm kind of meh on this. Dombrowski traded away the top guy in their farm system for Gose. The HOPE is that the same hitting coach that turned JD Martinez from a .250/.272/.378 hitter in Houston to a .315/.358/.553 hitter in Detroit can do something similar with Gose. If Anthony Gose plays plus defense in CF, hits something like .250/.330/.400 and snags 30 bases, I'll be happy with it.
A rumor currently gaining traction is that the Tigers are interested in bringing in Melky Cabrera to fill the Torii Hunter void in the lineup. Melky is a nice hitter. In fact, last year was pretty representative of his game - .301/.351/.458 hitting, 16 HR, 73 RBI and 6 SB. He's not a great OF, but JD Martinez was actually pretty good when he played RF last year and Melky was less bad than JD in LF, so this would be a decent defensive upgrade over the Martinez-Davis-Hunter OF from this past season. Melky is also primarily a #2 hitter, meaning that the Tigers' lineup would read 1. Kinsler, 2. Cabrera, 3. Cabrera, 4. Martinez, 5. Martinez... It's like a law firm or something.
In that same Melky Cabrera article, Dombrowski says the plan for the bullpen in 2015 is to go with Nathan as the closer, Soria as the setup guy, and Rondon as the 7th inning guy. The problem(s) with that?
This is a list of the top 15 closers in the AL. Look at the WAR (wins above replacement). Nathan is the worst at -0.2, Soria is the 2nd worst at -0.1. Soria had a couple of injuries and is only 30, so I'm willing to excuse him. He had a good WHIP, an okay ERA, and he was striking guys out. On the other hand, Nathan is 39 and his numbers fell off the planet. He's not good anymore. He might be better next year, but his upside is pretty low and Soria will be better anyway.
So Dombrowski's plan is to bring back the worst closer in the league, Soria (who struggled last year), and hope Bruce Rondon is recovered from Tommy John surgery? None of those guys are NOT a question mark. I hope he's not serious.
P.S. - Alex Avila might be out the door. I like his defense ok, but he's barely a major league hitter. In fact, he's really not. Pick up Geovany Soto or promote James McCann. I'm done with the patented Avila strikeout-looking-with-2-outs-and-men-on-base.
The Lions are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL right now and are the runaway leader in the "ugly wins" category. By my count, the Lions needed to come back in each of their last 3 games, and the Atlanta game was only won by a nose. The last comfortable win was on October 12th, and it was a 17-3 win over Minnesota. Not exactly total domination. Still, record counts above all else, and 10 ugly wins will get a team into the playoffs over a team with 8 dominating wins and 8 close losses.
With all these "ugly" wins, where
do the Lions fit among the top teams in the NFL? Well, there are 3 other teams
that are 7-2 or better (Denver, New England, and Arizona), Philly is 6-2 and
plays tonight, and then there are 5 teams that are 6-3 or better (Green Bay,
Seattle, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Dallas and Kansas City). After yesterday’s
win over Miami, I have a pretty good idea where Detroit is right now, so let me
try to put this in perspective. I think Detroit is better than Philly,
Cleveland, Kansas City, Dallas and Seattle. I think they’re really close to
Green Bay, Arizona and Indianapolis, and both Denver and New England are better
than the Lions. If I had to give Detroit a rank right now, I’d put them at 5th
in the league. I know they beat Green Bay already, but that team is on a
serious tear right now. With Carson Palmer out, Detroit should be better than
Arizona, and Indianapolis looks like a bit of a paper champion to me.
Before we get into the deeper implications of Detroit's win over Miami and look ahead, let's enjoy the win. It's nice to have Calvin Johnson back, right? He crossed Grimes up to get open here with an inside-outside-inside move & Stafford's bomb was perfect. It was a thing of beauty. Here it is in moving pictures:
I was watching the game with a group of friends, and when CJ pulled that ball in, everyone watching stood up and made the "OOOOOOOHHHHHHHH!" sound. When Stafford airs one out like that and I know Calvin Johnson is in the game, my confidence on the success of that play goes up about 900%. The next time Stafford tried a throw like that, he underthrew CJ and got picked off by one of the more athletic plays of the NFL season.
Grimes was one of the top corners in the league going into the game, and I was pretty worried about him going into the contest. Yes, Stafford underthrew CJ, but not by a ton. Calvin could have made the catch if Grimes wasn't there, Grimes had to make an incredible play to pull that in, and we were kind of left shaking our heads (totally agree with this tweet). This was a wacky game. There were 3 fake punts, 2 by Detroit and 1 by Miami (successful, but negated by a penalty). Detroit's 2nd attempt looked like an audible when the outside guy for Miami uncovered Detroit's gunner, but Martin's pass was bad and by the time Qudus pulled it in, the defense had recovered. Here's their first attempt:
This was a much easier pass than the sideline pass he had to throw to Qudus on the 2nd fake punt attempt, and you can see Martin isn't about to challenge Stafford in the arm strength department. I liked this call, and I didn't mind the 2nd call that was unsuccessful. Of note, on this play I believe the RG Larry Warford suffered a knee injury and might miss considerable time. RT LaAdrian Waddle also left the game and didn't return, but that seemed more precautionary than necessary.
Listed 3 key matchups for this game on Friday. How did they play out? Well, Tannehill vs. Lions' front 7 I'm calling a win for the Lions. They sacked him three times, hit him 9 times (Suh being the biggest meanie with a sack and 3 hits), and kept him to 2 carries for 0 yards. I was worried about Tannehill's rushing being a wild card and putting the defense in disarray. The DEs stayed home and they kept him in check. He was on his back much of the afternoon, and took several punishing hits. One was flagged (blow to the head, iffy call since they actually hit him in the upper chest) and Suh got nailed with a facemask penalty, which was legit. This one? Not flagged.
I'm pretty sure that move isn't legal in MMA. Anyway, Tannehill finished the game with a QBR of 27.1, which is 4th from the bottom this week (so far, 1 game to play). Stafford fared quite a bit better in his matchup, Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Miami's DBs. Stafford got picked once on the aforementioned incredibly athletic play, but he finished with a QBR of 52.1 (average) and 2 TD passes, including the game winner.
Ok, let me express how amazing this throw is. Stafford is rolling to his left, making it harder to step into the throw to put some omph into it. Then he has to open his hips to make the pass go to Riddick instead of, say, the camera men on the sideline. This makes it even harder to put any power into the throw. Riddick is covered, but somehow Stafford puts an insane amount of zip on the ball, placing it where only Theo Riddick can reach, and Riddick makes a nice play on the ball. Calvin had a better game than Stafford, getting 113 yards and a TD on 7 catches, including this one:
Plays like that are why Calvin Johnson is The Man. CJ over the top and over the middle opened up things for Golden Tate as well. Tate experienced zero dropoff in production, despite being the #2 WR now that Calvin is back. He was used often on that bubble screen, which was always good for at least 5 yards and usually more. The Miami DBs did ok, getting the pick and knocking down some passes, including what would have been CJ's 2nd TD catch, but they were overmatched in the end. I'm going to call the last matchup, Lions' O-Line vs. Dolphin's D-line a draw. Detroit was running the ball pretty well until they went strictly to the pass (Reggie Bush averaged 5.0 yards/carry before he limped off, Joique Bell averaged 4.4 yards/carry & by all accounts had a decent game. Just ask Cortland Finnegan). Stafford USUALLY had time to throw it. Miami's defense was credited with 3 sacks, although 1 was a tackle with no loss of yards (which isn't really a sack is it?), and on 1 the ref absurdly blew the whistle when Stafford was barely tied up and got free in less than a second.
Let me put in a not-so-quick aside about how ridiculous this call was: it was 3rd and long, Stafford got tangled up with Wake and kicked free. He wasn't wrapped up - Wake had him by the ankle - and no one from Miami was coming to clean it up. This whistle was REALLY quick and infuriating, like on a hockey play when the goalie goes down on a shot, the ref loses sight of the puck & blows the whistle just as the puck appears across the line. When Stafford extends a play like that, there is a really good chance he's going to find somebody in the end zone, like on that game-winning throw. I get that they want to save the QB, but I've never seen that play blown dead before.
Still, 3 sacks, 6 QB hits for Miami looks good on a stat sheet. Detroit had to overcome the loss of 2 linemen on the right side and the replacements did ok. We'll call it a draw. The Lions out-played the 'Fins for most of the game in most facets of the game. There were 2 big swings in the game by Miami, one being Grimes' INT in the end zone right after Ihedigbo had a pick with a big return off of Tannehill. That pick probably took points off the board from Detroit. The biggest turnaround in the game was in the 3rd quarter, when Prater's 42-yd FG attempt was blocked and returned to the 3 yard line. That was a 10-point swing. Take those 2 plays away and this game isn't close. So, on to Arizona, the #1 team in the NFC (and top record in football). Their defense is top notch, but I'm suddenly MUCH less frightened of their offense. Carson Palmer went down with an ACL injury and should miss the rest of the season. Drew Stanton, former MSU QB/former Lions 3rd-string QB, will step in again as the starter. Stanton didn't play all that well when Palmer was injured earlier in the season (doesn't Carson Palmer get knocked out for the season like every other year?), although the Cards won every game he started except the Denver game. From the "Losers" section of Grantland's NFL week 10 Winners and Losers column:
"Arizona is 8-1, and although any stat ever conceived pokes holes in that record, this team was legitimately frightening. Without Palmer, the Cardinals get much less scary. Drew Stanton has played admirably in Palmer’s absence, but Arizona’s ceiling without its starting quarterback takes a serious hit. Palmer currently ranks 10th in QBR. He was completing 63 percent of his passes. Even if the extension was ill-advised, it happened because Palmer was playing well — or at least well enough to win. Stanton can’t consistently do that."
Even without Palmer, the Cardinals are a really good team. Under Stanton they beat the Giants by 2 scores and San Francisco by 2 scores, and they lost to Denver by 21. Their pass defense doesn't look particularly good overall (30th in yards allowed), but they have some ballhawks (Patrick Peterson, the Honey Badger, Cromartie, and Jerraud Powers to name a few) and rate #1 in interceptions. Their running game is about where Detroit's is and their decent passing game (13th to Detroit's 9th) is taking a hit with their #1 QB out. Their D line doesn't get after the QB much (only 14 total sacks - Calais Campbell is back, but they lost their #1 pass-rusher John Abraham and a nice DE Darnell Dockett at the start of the season), but their O line doesn't allow any sacks either.
It'll be a really tough game, but the door is a little more open. If the Lions win next Sunday... IF the Lions win next Sunday, the door to the top spot in the NFC is open (scroll down about half-way to the NFC clump 1 section). Their remaining schedule would contain 1 REALLY good team (New England @ Foxboro), 1 pretty good team (Green Bay @ Lambeau), and a bunch of duds (Chicago twice, Minnesota and Tampa Bay). That's potentially a 12-4 record. I'm not ready to predict Detroit running the table, but a win over Arizona could (and very probably WOULD) lead to the Lions' first 1st-round bye since...gulp... 1991!
That was fun. See you later for the mixed bag that is the Detroit Pistons.
The Lions are ready to start the second half of their 2014 season. The first half went pretty well, finishing 6-2, and while there is some cause for concern (injuries on the defense, history of 2nd half collapses, etc), things seem to be looking up.
Bill Barnwell is a writer for Grantland who specializes in the NFL, and he tends to go deep into statistical analysis. It can get a bit dry, but his writing is packed with information. He wrote an article analyzing the stats behind the stats for the 1st half of the 2014 season to see what we might expect in the 2nd half. There is quite a bit of relevance for the Lions here, so I thought I'd call some of that out.
Pythagorean Expectation: So-called due to its resemblance to the pythagorean theorem, the theory behind it is that point differential is a better indicator of how good a team is than their actual record. The Lions come in as the 3rd "luckiest" team in the NFL, with a Pythagorean win expectation of 5.2. This basically means they should be 5-3, not 6-2. Also of note, the Cardinals (Detroit's week 11 opponent) are the luckiest team with 5.0 expected wins instead of 7, and the Patriots (Detroit's week 12 opponent) are the 5th luckiest with 6 expected wins instead of 7. Performance in Close Games: This is the team's record in games decided by 1 score or less (<=7). The Lions are tied for 1st with the Bills and the Cowboys, all at 3-1. This is interesting because a) the Lions were really bad in close games the last 2 years, and b) the Lions would be 4-0 (and 7-1 overall) in close games had their kicker not shanked 3 FGs in the Buffalo game. Strength of Schedule: This is pretty easy to explain. Through their 1st 8 games, the Lions have played the 4th easiest schedule. The Jets at -8.0 SRS, the Falcons at -5.9 SRS, and the Panthers at -7.3 SRS are the Lions' lowest rated 1st half opponents. Detroit's 2nd half schedule is a mixed bag, featuring several monsters (the Pats at 9.3 SRS, the Dolphins at 8.4, and Arizona at 5.7) and a couple of duds (the Bucs at -14.0!!!, the Vikes at -4.6, and da Bears twice at -4.0).
What does this mean for the next 8 games? Well, the Lions have featured the offense of a 2-6 team and the defense of an 8-0 team. Weird kicking issues aside, they're kind of lucky to be sitting where they are. With a tougher 2nd half schedule and possibly some regression to the mean in their Pythagorean expectation and performance in close games, could we see another 2nd half implosion by the Lions?
Maybe. But their kicking game WILL be better, and Detroit is getting Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joe Fauria back this week. A healthy CJ alone should bump this offense from terrible to merely mediocre. How this offense progresses through the next 3 games is crucial to how the Lions finish the season. That murderer's row of Miami, New England and Arizona happen to be Detroit's next 3 games. If Detroit makes it through that stretch with 2 wins or more, they win the division. If they win one or none, they could still finish 10-6 but it gets harder. We all saw how the wheels came off last year as the Lions trumped each unbelievable loss with a more unbelievable loss. As my old coach used to say, they were on skates when they needed to dig in.
Focusing in on Sunday, what should we expect in the Detroit/Miami matchup? The Dolphins are 5-3, featuring a solid defense and a decent offense that scores a bunch. Miami is the #11 offense in yards/game, #9 in points/game. Their defense is 3rd behind Detroit and San Francisco, tied for 2nd in takeaways with 18 through 8 games (Detroit has 12, being less lucky in fumble recoveries). On top of that, the Dolphins have scored 3 TDs off of turnovers.
The good news? Coming off of a bye week, the Lions are healthier than they've been since week 1. Nick Fairley is still out, but Van Noy should be ready to contribute on a limited basis and basically all the offense is returning. That's the stage, who are the players? There are 3 key matchups to watch for on Sunday.
1. QB Ryan Tannehill vs. the Lions' Front 7: Tannehill is in his 3rd season and his having his best season as a pro by far. He's completing a nice percentage of his passes, he's throwing it about 35 times a game and netting 238 yards. He also runs a read option, and in this 3-game winning streak of Miami's, he's taken it himself about 5 times a game and gotten about 48 yards. Tannehill is Miami's 2nd leading rusher. Teryl Austin will need to draw up a nice plan to keep him hemmed in. A strong effort from the front 7 is crucial, needing a good pass rush that doesn't expose the edge for a long scramble. Suh needs to have one of his monster games, providing pressure in the middle and pushing the pocket towards one of the DEs. Either Levy or more likely Tahir Whitehead will be tracking Tannehill on passing plays. Pressure, as always, is key to forcing Tannehill into a bad passing day. And then the DEs need to stay home on the read option (more on this below). 2. Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Miami's DBs: Golden Tate has been phenomenal through 8 weeks, but CJ makes this offense go. Miami has the #2 pass defense, and credit their defensive backfield - Cortland Finnegan, Brent Grimes, Louis Delmas, Reshad Jones, and Jimmy Wilson. Grimes has 4 picks, good for 2nd in the league, and will most likely get the Calvin Johnson assignment. Stafford needs to be crisper on his passes than he's been and can't lock onto Calvin when he's triple-covered. 3. Lions' O-Line vs. 'Fins' D-Line: For some reason, Detroit went from one of the better pass-blocking units last year to one of the worst. Losing Waddle/Hilliard hurt, but then Waddle returned and they weren't much better. There may be some issues with protection assignments in this new offense, which I'm hoping got straightened out in the bye week. Stafford with time looks like Aaron Rodgers, Stafford under pressure looks like Jake Delhomme. Well, 'Fins DEs Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon can get after the QB. This is probably the best pass rush the Lions will see all year, so no more ole' blocks, no more checking-outside-while-the-blitzer-blows-by-you (I'm looking at YOU, Raiola). Tighten up.
The run blocking has never been good, so an average effort will do this week. The keys will be limiting turnovers by the offense and giving Stafford time. Miami's closest thing to a standout star on offense is Tannehill. Mike Wallace can fly at WR, but Tannehill spreads his passing around. They have a good rushing attack, largely due to Tannehill and the read option.
But the read option is simple to defend, if you are prepared. The QB reads the DE, who is unblocked. Based on what that DE does, the QB either hands it off, keeps it, or pitches it outside (if there's a pitchman... like most read option teams, Miami doesn't use one). I played DE in high school and LOVED facing option teams. My job: hit the QB. Green light. He's a runner, he's coming towards you, hit him. The sooner & harder you hit him, the sooner he pitches it. When the pitch happens early, the pitchman might not be ready for it, he'll probably be deeper in the backfield, and the defense has more time to track the play down. Read option is a bit different than a run option, but the idea is essentially the same. Tannehill will take the snap in the shotgun and hold the ball out for the RB. If the DE stays home, he hands it off. If the DE gets sucked in, he pulls it back and takes off for a large gain.
They run this with a wing on the side opposite of the direction of the play. The wing pulls and does a kick-out block on the LB if the DE gets sucked in. If the DE stays home, or better yet, attacks and blows up the pulling wing, the play ends in the backfield. It sounds simple, but it requires the DE going against instinct. Normally when he goes unblocked, the play is designed to go away from him. On many of these plays that go for big gains you see the DE come flying around the corner, trying to catch the RB from behind, only to watch the play go right by. Play this wrong and it will go for at least 20 yards.
I hate making predictions. I'm emotionally invested, so if I pick the Lions I feel uneasy and if I pick against them, I feel like a douche. On top of that, I'm not sure how good Miami actually is. They're rated pretty high, but they lost to Buffalo (badly, unlike the Lions who win if they make a FG), Kansas City and Green Bay (Miami's D got picked apart by Rodgers at the end of that one). Their signature wins have come over New England (when they were playing POORLY) and more recently over San Diego (in a classic Rivers wet-the-bed game). Their defense is for real, but I'm not sure about that offense.
On the other hand, how good are the Lions? Their big wins have been over Green Bay (when they were playing POORLY) and a tight one over New Orleans. Will the offense come around? How will the defense sustain the loss of Fairley? They get CJ Mosley back after his team suspension, so they may not miss Fairley that much, but the D Line is now thinner than before. Calvin Johnson should be at or around 100%, and all 3 TEs are back. I'll say the offense finally shows up, despite facing a top passing defense, and Detroit gets into the end zone more than Miami does. Home field is probably the difference in this one, these teams are evenly matched.
This should be a lesson to Devin Gardner, who will never be an NFL quarterback. If he wants to play pro ball, he needs to work on being the best WR he can be. I think he could cut it as a slot WR or a #2 option.
***
The Ray Rice hearings are going on, and Goodell looks to be in trouble. He's switched his story like 17 times, and it seems like Rice has been upfront about what happened since the beginning. Goodell's punishment of Rice on his 2nd attempt was what everyone wanted from the beginning, only it wasn't really fair according the discipline policy at the time. It's not even fair according to the current policy. I doubt Rice will play again this year because he has no team, but the NFL will have to settle with him.
***
The Red Wings have 6 wins, 3 losses, and 4 OT losses, 2 of them in shootouts. They've got 2 OT wins, 0 shootout wins. Shootouts were a problem last year. They finished the 2013-'14 season with 15 OT losses (tied for 2nd most in the NHL) with a 5-9 record in shootouts. No other playoff team had as many losses in shootouts. This wasn't a problem in the past, since Datsyuk was gold, and Detroit had other guys like Bertuzzi, Hudler and Filpula that had some good moves for shootouts. Now it looks like After Datsyuk and Nyquist, Detroit doesn't have the same type of playmakers it used to. Add to that the fact that Datsyuk isn't quite the shootout menace he used to be, and this team needs answers.
***
I was about to put a baseball FA tidbit in here, but it's nothing and I have to call it quits until next week. Go Lions!
There are a couple of things I want to touch on with the Lions, but the Pistons finally won a game so let's get to that first.
The Knicks started 2 centers and Carmelo, who is basically a PF, so it made sense to start Drummond, Monroe and Smith all together. Drummond and Smith had bad games, Drummond with his continued foul trouble and Smith with his continued crappy shooting. Monroe (being awesome) and Carmelo (being not-awesome) would be the difference in this one.
The Knicks were already down one PG, Jose Calderon, one SG, JR Smith (for intentionally punching Glen Rice Jr in the nuts), and then another PG, Pablo Prigioni, went down with an ankle after playing only 6 minutes. Andrea Bargnani hasn't played all year. In short, this wasn't a team that was ready to handle a bad night from 'Melo. Fortunately for the Pistons, Carmelo didn't deliver.
That's a lot of X's. I'd like to say this was due to fabulous defense by Josh Smith, but Smith probably defended him roughly half the time. 'Melo took a ton of off-balance shots, well-defended shots, and shots that he normally makes that just didn't go in. In fact, if I were to overlay Carmelo's shot chart from last season over that game, his attempts line up pretty well with his hot spots.
He took threes from areas where he normally makes them, he took jumpers pretty close to those 2 hotspots between the elbow and the baseline, and he even missed a couple of shots right at the hoop. Not a good night for 'Melo.
Greg Monroe, on the other hand, shot fairly well. He didn't make a really high percentage of his shots (8-17 isn't great if nearly all your shots are within 8 ft of the hoop), but he hustled to get some putbacks and really put in some work on the low block.
It's kind of dumb to gripe about a 23 point, 18 rebound effort, but there are a couple of nits I have to pick. First, that is a LOT of misses in the paint. Secondly, I'd like to see him taking some shots around the elbow. He's got that one long miss, but I'd like to see him take some shots in the 12-15 ft range. Those minor irritations aside, there was a lot to like. Alright, just had an idea for a section I'm going to call Three Studs, Three Duds. Catchy, right? I hope I didn't subconsciously plagiarize somebody with that one. Anyway...
Three Studs 1. Greg Monroe: Mostly covered this in the last 2 paragraphs, but he was The Man. Also shot 7-8 from the stripe, and on a night when rebounds were a key factor in the Pistons' victory, he snagged 18. Also key: despite really high usage from Monroe in this game, only 1 turnover. 2. Kentavious C-P: I need to figure out a way to say his name without going with the acronym every time... Anyway. KCP had his best game this season, shooting 4-7 from three and netting 20 points. More of this, please. The one fly in the oatmeal: he missed 2 clutch free-throws that would have put the game away. 3. Jonas Jerebko: Played 15 min, shot 4-6, 3-4 from three, 11 points, 3 boards and an assist. That's incredible production. At that rate, he'd have scored 26pts, 7 boards in 36 minutes.
Three Duds 1. Josh Smith: Yes, he filled up the stat sheet with 10 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. Now for the bad: 2-17 shooting, he took some TERRIBLE shots and got booed, and got out-played by the Knicks' Jason Smith. 2. Andre Drummond: 13 boards, 2 blocks - good. 3-10 shooting (1-4 FT), 5 fouls - BAD. Drummond has taken a big step back through the first 4 games. Lots of fouls, poor shooting, and it's led to him logging 1 game with over 30 minutes played. This needs to change FAST. 3. Kyle Singler: He was the anti-Jerebko. He played 13 minutes and might as well have played zero.
Drummond gets a chance to turn it around against Milwaukee on Friday. Josh Smith... well, the clock is ticking there. I think he's out the door by the trade deadline. SVG will have to work some magic to get much in return, but he'll be gone if all we get back is some gumballs and a couple of Bennigans coupons.
***
I kill Mayhew for some of his drafts. In 2009, he took Pettigrew (a TE???) with the 20th pick when the Lions had serious needs on defense, and guys like Clay Matthews Jr and Vontae Davis were available. The Suh pick was great (obvious, but great) in 2010, but then he traded back up into the 1st to take Jahvid Best, a RB with serious health concerns when CB Patrick Robinson, a better RB Dexter McCluster, and TE Rob Gronkowski were all sitting there. The 2011 draft was particularly bad with only Fairley still on the team, and I had doubts about the 2012 one as well (taking Reiff over Janoris Jenkins, taking Broyles at all, etc.). The early returns on the 2014 draft are pretty poor, but the 2013 draft?
Let's give Mayhew a little credit for this one. It does look like a broken clock scenario, especially in context with his other drafts. For the record, I'd give Mayhew a C+ for '09, a C for '10, a D for '11, a C for 12, an A for '13 and a C- for '14 (this would go way down or way up, depending on how Ebron, Van Noy & Swanson turn out). But Mayhew's 2013 draft was REALLY good. I know it's really early to start saying that, but the returns have been good so far. Grantland just did a 2013 re-draft with Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays, and 3 Lions picks made the top 20.
1. Ezequiel Ansah. I totally saw this pick coming. They needed a DE desperately, and he had the most upside. Plus, the other position of need was OT and the top 3 had already been taken when the Lions' turn came up at #5. Both Mays and Barnwell have Ansah as their #2 in the re-draft, Mays basically saying Ansah is the best player but wouldn't go #1 due to a bad fit with KC. 2. Darius Slay. The Lions have needed a CB since forever, there were 2 from Mississippi State on the board in the 2nd round, and it looked like Detroit picked the wrong one! Johnathan Banks had a higher grade than Slay. Slay had a better 40 time (and by like 3 tenths of a second, which is a lot), but he was recovering from a knee injury. Banks looks like a player, but I think Slay is a better cover guy. Banks has more picks, Slay has more tackles and passes defensed. Right now I'd take Slay over Banks 10 times out of 10. Barnwell had the Jets taking Slay at #9 instead of Milliner, the top-rated CB in the draft, and Mays had him going 15th. He was originally taken with the 36th pick. 3. Larry Warford. The Lions had HUGE needs at DE, all over the offensive line, and at CB. OT was the biggest need, so losing out on the top OT's in the 1st round hurt, then Detroit appeared to take the wrong CB in the 2nd. Warford was the best lineman available when their turn came in the 3rd, and man did he deliver. He's taken a step back this year (as has Detroit's line as a unit), but believe me there will be Pro Bowls in his future. Both Mays & Barnwell had him going 13th instead of 65th. The rest of the draft was pretty good too. The next pick was Devin Taylor, a DE, taken with the 132nd pick in the 4th round. He's been buried behind Ansah and the more veteran pass rushers, but he managed to get 2.5 sacks last year in limited time. Detroit needed a punter, took Sam Martin in the 5th round and he's one of the top punters in the NFL. Detroit had 2 6th round picks, WR Corey Fuller and RB Theo Riddick. Fuller has filled in admirably while Calvin Johnson has been out, and Riddick has been MUCH better than Reggie Bush this year, at least in the receiving game.
Both 7th round picks are no longer on the team, but the Lions managed to get 2 undrafted free agents that same year that made major contributions. LaAdrian Waddle took over the starting RT spot from Corey Hilliard last year, and then Joseph Fauria grabbed 7 TDs last year as a red zone TE (and a big reason why I wondered what the hell Mayhew was doing drafting Ebron).
The 2013 draft (included the undrafted FAs) so far has yielded more useful players (8) than the Lions' 2010, 2011 & 2012 drafts together (5). If you want to exclude players now playing for other teams, the 2013 draft beats all of Mayhew's drafts COMBINED. That says a lot, both about how good the 2013 draft was and how bad his other drafts have been. Obviously this changes if Eric Ebron turns into Jimmy Graham, Travis Swanson becomes an adequate replacement for Raiola, and Kyle Van Noy does what I think he can do.
There's more Lions stuff I want to touch on, but I'll save that for tomorrow. This post has gone on long enough. So, coming tomorrow, some interesting stats thanks to Bill Barnwell & a DET/MIA preview.
Last week Friday I tried to end my post by addressing the Tigers' off-season. It was the end of the day, Friday, on Halloween. Clearly, I wasn't thinking. So, erase that portion of the blog from your memory and let's start over.
First, I can see 3 major issues that are preventing this team from winning a World Series: poor defense, the bullpen, and lack of depth (both throughout the lineup and on the bench). Dave Dombrowski has employed his Stars & Scrubs approach to team building for several years, but it hasn't worked (predictably). The Stars Dombrowski has brought in have largely been big hitting/weak defending guys (Cabrera, Fielder, V-Mart) as well as some ace starting pitching. The Scrubs have been weak hitting/mediocre defending players, and a patchwork bullpen. How can we shake this up?
Well, possibly coming off the books are SP Max Scherzer ($15.5M), RF Torii Hunter ($14M), DH Victor Martinez ($12M), Joba Chamberlain ($3M)... and that's about everybody who matters. They are going to try to re-sign Victor, but it may take more $ and years than Dombrowski is willing to spend. If Torii Hunter doesn't retire, they'll probably re-sign him as well, although it might be best for everyone if he retired (more on that in a minute). Joba is gone, and Scherzer is most likely gone as well. For argument's sake, let's say all 4 of these guys are gone and the Tigers have roughly $50M in payroll to play with.
Alex Avila and Ian Kinsler are actually excellent defenders (believe it or not, Miguel Cabrera is actually a decent defender at 1B and was a finalist for a gold glove), and Jose Iglesias should return to add more bat AND glove to the SS position. So that's good. Victor Martinez leaving (we assume!) takes away a REALLY good bat, but it affords some positional flexibility and would allow the Tigers to slide a good bat/bad glove into the DH spot. My candidate for that is Castellanos, who hasn't shown a good glove in the OF or at 3B. Hanley Ramirez is coming off a bit of a down year and is a SS who'll most likely convert to 3B for whoever his new team will be. He could replace Victor's bat in the lineup and provide a better glove at 3B. Chase Headley comes cheaper and brings a MUCH better glove (tops in the Majors), but a weaker bat. One of those guys should be available for $10M-$16M, so split the difference and say $13M.
Torii leaving should help the OF defense. The Tigers could either switch JD Martinez to RF (which he plays better than LF), or they could grab a guy like Nick Markakis or Nori Aoki to play RF. Melky Cabrera doesn't play a terrible RF either, and he'd be a better bat that Markakis or Aoki. Aoki would be the cheapest at around $5M/yr, Cabrera next at $8M-$10M, and Markakis is a $12M-$14M guy (the Orioles just declined a $17M option on him, so expect him to go for a bit less than that). The Tigers still need a CF, and not much is available there. Colby Rasmus is the best on the market and a decent defender, but he gets injured a lot and doesn't hit for average. After Rasmus is probably Nyjer Morgan, who couldn't crack Cleveland's deep OF last year. The last time he had anything like a full-time gig was 2012, and he played solid CF defense then but didn't hit very well. Rasmus could be had for $8M/yr, Morgan for $1M.
Best case, Detroit picks up Hanley Ramirez, Nori Aoki and Colby Rasmus for a total of $29M, leaving about $21M for a SP, 2 RPs, and a bench guy.
The Bullpen Assume Detroit misses on the top 2 SPs not named Scherzer (Lester & Shields) and settles on someone like Volquez or Hammel at around $8M/yr, preferably Hammel. Their rotation is now Verlander, Price, Sanchez, Porcello, and Volquez/Hammel. That's not too bad. Now they have $13M to spend on a RP or 3, and to round out their bench. They need another lefty (so long, Coke!) and at least 1 other setup guy who can be relied on to GET OUTS.
My pick would be Andrew Miller, who would fit the lefty need AND the reliable setup guy need. He'd be expensive, but he's not a closer (yet, although that could change) so he should run in the $7M range. It appears that Detroit is bringing back Soria (I'm ok with that), and unless they work a trade they're stuck with Nathan (I'm actually ok with that as well, as long as Ausmus doesn't get locked in with him as the closer like he did this year). With Nathan, Soria, and Miller at the back end and Hardy, Rondon (hopefully), and Albuquerque filling out the 'pen, it looks better.
There's a lot of competition for Miller though, so Detroit may need to go in another direction. There are actually several closers available, at varying degrees of affordability and... A-bility. The Tigers may want to go with one of them and slide Nathan into a setup role. This is not a move I would endorse (mainly due to cost). If anything, they should slide Soria into the closer role and Nathan into the setup role, but lets cover the "spring for another closer" option. The top 3 closers available are David Robertson (who should be REALLY expensive at over $15.3M per year), Francisco Rodriguez, and Rafael Soriano. Robertson is new to the role and handled it pretty well, so the Yankees will do their best to re-sign him. Plus, he's going to be too expensive. Rodriguez would be great if we could get him at the $3.3M he got last year, but that isn't happening. The only issue I have with him is he gives up a TON of HR. If he could be had for $8M/yr or less, I'd be ok with that. Soriano was ok last year, except for his 7 blown saves (for reference, Nathan blew the same number of saves with 3 more attempts, although his other numbers were worse). Soriano is also going to be too expensive, falling in the $12M-$14M range.
More reasonable options might be Sergio Romo ($7M-$8M, part-time closer, great stuff), Pat Neshek ($1M-$3M, great setup guy), Luke Gregerson ($5M-$6M, solid setup guy), or Zach Duke ($1M-$3M, lefty, lots of swings & misses). I really like Luke Hochevar as well, only that would put 2 guys in Detroit's bullpen who are recovering from a missed season due to Tommy John surgery. That rules him out. Jason Frasor is a fair-to-middlin' pitcher who could be had for a bargain $1M-$3M, and Casey Janssen & Jason Grilli are both committee closers who could be had for $4M-$6M. I like Zach Duke, Romo and Neshek best, so I'd take any combination of 2 out of those 3, if Miller is off the table and K-Rod can't be had.
We'll call it Romo and Zach Duke for a total of $9M, leaving $5M to round out the bench and putting the 7-man 'pen at Nathan, Soria, Romo, Duke, Rondon, Hardy, Albuquerque, and whichever youngster makes it out of the Reed/Krol/Knebel/Lobstein pack if they want to go with 8. I like it so far.
Lack of Depth Losing V-Mart and Hunter hurt the offense (but help the defense), but adding Hanley at 3B, Rasmus at CF and Aoki at either RF or LF spreads that offense around a little more. Hanley would provide protection for Cabrera, Aoki would either leadoff or bat 2nd, and Rasmus would most likely bat 6th or 7th, behind either JD Martinez or Castellanos (who is now playing DH). Both Aoki and Rasmus provide left-handed bats, adding some stability to the lineup. Jose Iglesias is an upgrade at SS, both offensively and defensively, and Rajai Davis moves to the 4th OF position, spelling either Aoki, Rasmus or JD Martinez as needed, as well as providing insurance against an injury to Rasmus.
That doesn't exactly SOLVE the depth problem, but the lineup should be deeper and moving Davis to the bench adds depth there. $5M adds a LOT of bench depth, probably too much. Well, we don't need to spend it all. Bring up Collins as a 5th OF (adds speed, pop, and solif LF defense), and pick up a guy like Geovany Soto to backup Avila at C. We all know Don Kelly is going to be the 5th OF and INF backup, but let's pretend he's not. The lineup is now:
2B Ian Kinsler (R)
RF Nori Aoki (L)
1B Miguel Cabrera (R)
3B Hanley Ramirez (R)
LF JD Martinez (R)
CF Colby Rasmus (L)
DH Nick Castellanos (R)
C Alex Avila (L)
SS Jose Iglesias (R)
The bench looks like this: OF - Rajai Davis (R), Tyler Collins (L); INF - Andrew Romine (S) (defensively Castellanos would get some starts at 1B & 3B); C Geovany Soto (R). Davis & Collins provide good-ish D and both L & R bats in the OF, Romine is a solid switch-hitting backup for the middle INF, and Soto is a good defensive catcher and provides a right-handed alternative to Avila. Now for pitching:
Justin Verlander (R)
David Price (L)
Anibal Sanchez (R)
Rick Porcello (R)
Jason Hammel (R)
The bullpen looks like this (hopefully): CL - Joakim Soria (R); Setup - Sergio Romo (R), Joe Nathan (R), Zach Duke (L); The Rest - Blaine Hardy (L), Al Albuquerque (R), Bruce Rondon (R). I like it. Nathan is a bit high-priced as a setup man ($10M), but I'd prefer to overpay him to pitch the 7th or 8th instead of adequately pay him to blow the 9th.
If the key players stay healthy and play to expectations, that team is worth 95 wins.
