Pistons Draft - Roadmap to Cade + Ivey = Title(s)

 This series will examine potential Pistons draft picks at 5 and how I see them (or don't see them) contributing to a title run. I believe Cade Cunningham is That Dude, the guy who can front a contending team. The Pistons are in a great position now, because they have the toughest piece to acquire when building a contender. The next thing they need is a #2 - that guy who can take over at times when Cade needs a break, take away from the defensive pressure on Cade, and also work well with him on the court.

In the 2023 draft, the presumptive top 3 guys are Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and Jabari Smith. I'm assuming that all of those guys are gone when the Pistons go on the clock. I believe Jaden Ivey is the next-best player, and depending on what Sacramento wants to do with the 4th pick, he very well could be available. Given what the Kings have in D'Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell (shorter guards with lower 3P%), I find it highly unlikely that they go with Ivey at #4.

For scouting on Ivey, I'm going to go with Hoops Intellect's video, which is pretty thorough:

Good for Us:

- Explosive athlete

- Strong finishing at the rim

- Pesky defender when locked in

- Vastly improved 3pt shooter

- Disrupts defenses & finds open shooters

Bad for Us:

- 3pt shot still average at best & a work in progress

- Had defensive lapses when not locked in

- Turnovers/lack of ball security

Anybody watching what the Warriors are doing (and have been doing) should be able to acknowledge the value of being good at cutting to the basket. They're famous for their 3pt shooting, but most of their team is average or worse there. What all of them can do, though, is cut to the hoop and switch on defense. Even Curry. 

Ivey isn't a solid enough ball handler that you'd want him at the point, but he could definitely play a D-Wade type roll. Namely - as a secondary ball-handler, running off screens, cutting to the hoop, and defending the point. I expect Ivey's 3pt shooting to continue to improve, though it may settle around "league average." The defense probably depends on what his role is more than anything, but he has all the makings of an elite defensive guard. The Pistons need better shooting and Ivey isn't likely to provide that right away or in spades, but what they really need is talent. Ivey might be the best player in this draft.

The comp I keep hearing for him is Ja Morant, which is a really good comp, aside from the fact that Ivey is less of a creator. They're so similar in their size, athleticism, and how they get their points. The Dwyane Wade comp I made earlier is also a good one, both in the player and the role I'd want him to play. It's hard to say with any assurance that a given draft prospect is going to be a top 5 player like Wade and Morant were/are, but I would say a reasonable expectation range for what Ivey could bring to the Pistons would be somewhere between Wade and Marcus Smart.

As far as how he would fit in on a championship contender, we'd need both he and Cade to improve their 3pt shooting, we'd need an elite 3pt shooting wing, a stretch 4 (man, Christian Wood would've been perfect), and a rim protecting/rim-running C to catch lobs. And a solid bench, of course. When I look at the difference between what the Pistons have and what championship teams of the past have, it's mainly defense, 3pt shooting, and having multiple guys that can manufacture buckets. Ivey supplies at least 2 of those, and his shooting is coming along.

First and foremost in the NBA draft, GMs should be looking to take the best player over fit. The draft is really a crapshoot, far more so than the NFL draft is. I always thought the Magic should've kept Webber instead of trading back to pair Penny Hardaway with Shaq. There are dozens of examples of teams trading back in the draft for a better "fit" that they eventually regret. Always take the best player, and I think that guy is Ivey.

How Did Stafford Get Jobbed for the Pro Bowl Thrice???

I don't think Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Fame QB yet. He hasn't had the type of post-season success or regular season domination that you would expect from the elites at his position. But I do believe he should be closer to the conversation than he is, and one of the biggest detractions on his resume is the lack of Pro Bowl appearances. Somehow, after all the years he's played in the NFL and all the yards he's racked up, he only made it as an injury replacement in 2014? How is this possible?

2011 -

In 2011, Stafford was statistically superior to Eli Manning in most respects. He eclipsed the 5,000 passing yard mark (hard to do), and threw 41 TDs (also hard to do), but had the misfortune to do so in a season when 2 other QBs also reached those numbers. Still, it's hard to look at the two seasons and conclude that Eli was better.

However, Cam Newton making the roster over Stafford is absolutely indefensible. Stafford was the superior QB in literally every single way. Cam was the ROY darling, but it's not like Stafford was old news. He's only a year older than Cam, and had missed most of the previous season due to injury. I have no rational explanation for this.

2015 - 

This PB roster is a head scratcher. Again, Eli Makes it in over Stafford despite being not quite as good. Aaron Rodgers makes it over Stafford because he's Aaron Rodgers, not because he was better that year (he wasn't). But the NFC had 2 QBs who had no business being on a Pro Bowl roster. Don't get me wrong, Bridgewater had a nice season and Winston was decent for a rookie, but come on! The Vikings had Adrian Peterson running the ball in 2015, and he was All Pro that year. Teddy B was a glorified game manager. Winston...he threw for a decent number of yards, but he had not a lot of TDs and a lot of INTs, and he just wasn't very accurate.

Objectively,  Stafford deserved to make it in over all 4 of those guys. I have no freaking clue how he didn't manage to make it in over even one of them.

2017 -

2017 doesn't have quite as strong a case for Stafford as we had in the previous 2 examples, but it's still a snub if not outright robbery. Out of these 4 QBs, Stafford has the most yards, most yards per game, the best completion percentage, etc. Looking at the numbers across the board, I'd have to put Carson Wentz ahead of Stafford that season, but Jared Goff is debatable, and Wilson really has no case. Goff, like Bridgewater in 2015, was aided SIGNIFICANTLY by having an All Pro running back carrying the offense.

The hidden numbers for Wilson in 2017 are his rushing yards. If you factor that in with his passing yards (and do the same for Stafford), they basically break even. Stafford was inarguably the better passer in 2017, but Russell Wilson had very little help running that offense, leading the team on the ground as well as through the air.

The problem is if "lack of help" is the argument to justify Wilson getting the nod over Stafford, what's the argument for Goff? Or any of the guys in 2015 or 2011 that were listed? As far as carrying the offense goes, the Lions' rushing attack has been famously anemic. Since 2011, there have been only eight 100-yard GAMES by a Lions running back, and we've had only three 700-yard rushing seasons! Until Kerryon Johnson broke the streak in 2018, the Lions had gone nearly 5 seasons without a 100-yard rushing game.

I know the Lions lose a lot (believe me, I KNOW), and I realize that they might be the least "sexiest" franchise in the NFL, but that just becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy if they don't get recognition when they actually deserve it. It's hard to look at the numbers for these three years and not conclude that the game is somehow rigged.

New Pistons coach Dwane Casey: what to expect

When the Pistons announced the hiring of Dwane Casey to take over head coaching duties from Stan Van Gundy, I was lukewarm. There were 2 or 3 others I liked better, but Casey was a solid candidate. More than solid, in fact, having come off of a Coach of the Year season, winning 59 games but getting swept by Cleveland in the quarter finals.

The end of the Raptors' season, as well as Casey's rep as a sub-par Xs & Os guy, caused me to treat the news of his hire slightly better than I did the hiring of Maurice Cheeks. I acknowledged he was an improvement over the last guy (Van Gundy), but only just. This really wasn't fair to Casey.

First of all, who is Dwane Casey? 

He was a top recruit out of high school, went to Kentucky, but  never really put it together as a player. He spent his off seasons working in the coal mines or tobacco farms, and during the season he was an end of the bench guy, averaging about a point a game. After his playing days, he came up as an assistant at Kentucky, first teaching Rupp's complicated 6-8-10 offense to Sam Bowie, then as a recruiter and running practices. A recruiting scandal - Casey was later proven innocent and settled in a defamation lawsuit - blackballed him from the NCAA and pushed him to coach in Japan. He finally caught on in the NBA as an assistant with George Karl in Seattle. Eventually, his first head coaching gig materialized in Minnesota. 

Casey was an unfortunate casualty of too high expectations there, was fired in the middle of his 2nd season (with a 20-20 record) and ended up in Dallas as an assistant.  In fact, his defense was credited as key to Dallas's 2011 Championship over the Heat. This got him the Toronto job, where he turned the Raptors into regulars atop the Eastern Conference standings. Ultimately, a second straight sweep against the Cavs was his undoing.

What can we expect?

Casey is markedly different from Stan Van Gundy in several key ways. He's more patient and focused on developing players, something Toronto's players attributed to their success as the top bench unit in the NBA. Calling him a "player coach" insinuates Casey is soft, which he's not, but he's definitely easier to get along with than SVG was.

As good as Stan Van Gundy's rep was as a strategist, I didn't really see the evidence of it. He designed a decent defense, but the offense never really worked and he failed to game plan for obvious challenges (like Philly having a guy named Ben Simmons on their roster). While SVG's game planning was overrated, Dwane Casey might be a victim of being underrated in that regard. He changed the offensive style from his earlier years in Toronto to be looser, faster, and to involve more movement. He made radical in-game moves that helped his team win, like throwing a 6'4" defender at the 7'0" Kristaps Porzingis so Patrick Patterson could D up on Carmelo, or aggressively trapping Kemba Walker in a game he was killing them, or telling his best two players they would be decoys on a buzzer beater play.

Probably the biggest difference between SVG and Casey is his trust in the role players. Casey let his players play through struggles and slumps, while a couple of bad games from a rookie might mean a trip to the G league under Van Gundy. It took Stan about 12 games before he was using rookie Luke Kennard, a player with a dead-eye 3-point shot that the team desperately needed, as a rotational fixture. Casey used his rookie OG Anunoby right off the bat. In the playoffs, Casey played 10 players at 15 mpg or more, and only 2 players got more than 30 mpg. In Stan Van Gundy's one trip to the playoffs here, he leaned heavily on the starters and gave only 6 players more than 11 mpg. Let me say that again - in Detroit's only playoff trip under Stan Van Gundy, only 6 players averaged more than 11 minutes per game!

Casey isn't married to a lineup if he sees a beneficial matchup. He will switch to zone, he'll trap, and he will change, and possibly improve as a coach. SVG did none of those things. He was inflexible, didn't change, didn't improve. Casey might not be the most innovative offensive mind, but at least he's not mired in the past, and he's willing to move into the future.

Pistons that Almost Were...

Now that the Pistons have selected Dwane Casey to be their next head coach, they need a GM who can run a better ship than SVG did (or Dumars, in his last 5 years). That got me thinking about trade near-misses Dumars and SVG had in their time here.

2007 - Kobe vetoes trade for Rip, Tay, and picks.
This one would've been a coup for Dumars, but Kobe shot it down. He had demanded a trade and wanted to go to Chicago, but they couldn't make the pieces work. Detroit and LA had the details all worked out, but Jerry Buss talked Kobe down off the ledge and he stuck it out. He would go on to be league MVP the next season and win 2 more titles. Could he have won a 'ship here with Chauncey, Sheed and Dice? Probably.
Grade: Not Dumars' fault, but MAN... 1/2 a facepalm.

2009 - Detroit rejects Ray Allen & Rondo for Rip, Tay & Stuckey.
Ainge reached out through an intermediary and was summarily rejected. Allen's contract was expiring, so it's not as sweet an offer as it looks on the surface. Still, we would've had Rondo through his prime, the horrific 2009 FA moves Dumars made probably wouldn't have happened, and we would've had cap space in the bigger free agency summer of 2010.
Grade: Would've had 4 AS appearances out of Rondo, instead of 0 from Rip/Tay/Stuckey. 4 facepalms.

2014 - Stan turns down multiple offers for Greg Monroe.
Ugh. We don't know what was offered, but anything would've been better than what ended up happening. The Suns were the most aggressive suitor and they had guys like Dragic & Bledsoe that they were trying to get rid of. Even a weak tea offer would've been better than Stan opting to ship out Josh Smith for nothing, stretching his contract until 2020, then losing Monroe for nothing that summer.
Grade: Stan set off a chain of events that continues to screw us to this day. 10 facepalms. 

2015 - SVG prefers to draft Stanley Johnson over the 6 picks Boston offered.
This might be the most inexcusable non-move of the bunch. Danny Ainge was desperate to draft Justise Winslow, and started offering up the farm - 6 picks, including potentially 4 first-rounders. Fortunately for Boston (and unfortunately for us), Stan Van Gundy was so enamored with Stanley Johnson that he turned down a deal that included the Jaylen Brown pick and the Terry Rozier pick, among others. Brown & Rozier started for a team that made the ECF, Stanley Johnson comes off the bench for a team that couldn't win 40 games.
Grade: Inexcusable. INFINITE facepalms.

Most of Dumars' gaffes involved bad drafting and bad contracts. He tended to do well in trades, although the Ben Gordon trade wasn't great and turning down the Allen/Rondo trade probably led to some of his worst moves. 

Stan made a couple of decent trades early on, but he got progressively worse. Not dealing Monroe at the beginning of the '14-'15 season was just dumb. Nixing Boston's offer for the 8th pick was an all-time boneheaded move.

Look at who we could've had! Kobe in 2008 (not the GM's fault), Ray Allen in '09 and Rondo through his All Star years, whoever on the Suns instead of no Greg Monroe and negative cap space of Josh Smith, and finally Scary Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown instead of Stanley Johnson. Why didn't these deals happen? Other than the Kobe deal, it was because the GM at the time overvalued what he had and failed to look into the future. Whoever the next GM of the Pistons turns out to be, learn from this. 

Now Here's a Thought...

Blake Griffin is the best player to play in a Pistons uniform since Grant Hill. In a vacuum, I love the fact that we have such a dynamic player on our team. He's also got a great attitude and is one of the more marketable players in the NBA. The problem is that he doesn't exist in a vacuum. He comes saddled with a monster of a contract (average salary of $34.2M thru 2021, with a $39M player option for 2022), and his skill set doesn't match well with Detroit's other star/good-ish players.

The Pistons still don't have a head coach or a GM, but whoever ends up in that role will have his or her hands full trying to make this roster work. We're maxed out, salary cap-wise, and this still is a borderline playoff roster AT BEST. I've got an idea that could fix both the player fit problems AND some of our salary woes in one fell swoop.

Trade Blake Griffin for Kevin Love straight up.

Stay with me here - Cleveland IS going to lose in the Finals, probably by getting swept tonight. That's a fact. LeBron IS going to sign elsewhere next year. Not necessarily a fact, but this is almost assured. So what does Cleveland do? They've mortgaged their future for the present. They don't own a pick in the first round this year, and they could lose their pick in either 2019 or 2020 if it falls out of the top 10. Their roster, sans LeBron, would be headlined by Kevin Love, a good player who has never headlined a playoff team in his career. Plus, even with LeBron's salary gone, the Cavs would still be too close to the salary cap to get a star in free agency. If Cleveland doesn't get a star player in exchange for LeBron via sign & trade (as suggested by The Ringer in this piece), the Cavs are STUCK. 

There's no replacing LeBron, but... if the Cavs did this deal for BG, they'd have an All Star PF and at least be under the luxury tax. A team of Blake Griffin, George Hill, Tristan Thompson, Kyle Korver, and Rodney Hood could make the playoffs in the East next year, especially if LeBron goes West. Look, the Cavs are screwed either way if/when LeBron leaves. Trading for Griffin would definitely ease the blow.

Now, the impact for the Pistons...

Love is not as dynamic a player a Griffin, but he's still pretty good. Love's rep as a lights-out shooter is deserved (.458/.415/.824 this year), but he's also a great rebounder AND a great low-post scoring threat. If his defense was a little better, he'd be a perfect match next to Drummond. He's quietly having a pretty good finals too, other than some sub-par 3pt shooting. We'd also clear about $1oM in salary from our books, still putting us over the cap, but it would allow us to use the full $8M MLE on a free agent instead of the $5M taxpayer exception.

The presumed starting lineup would be Drummond, Love, Johnson/Bullock/FA, Kennard, and Reggie Jackson. The SF position is still a bit dicey, but we could do better to fill it if we had that $8M MLE to spend (Trevor Ariza??? Sign & trade for Jabari Parker???).

We (the Pistons) don't have a lot of options. We're a team built to contend, but we're not a contender. It's possible if Griffin & Jackson are healthy next year, and we get a coach that can create a viable offense out of Drummond and them, the Pistons might be a playoff team. That's not enough, with this payroll. A trade for Love could move them from borderline playoff team to borderline contender.

Winter is Coming for the Pistons

The Pistons fired Head Coach/President Stan Van Gundy and their extreme long shot to hit the draft lottery didn't pan out, so they have no 1st round pick this year. The salary cap situation is pretty dire, maxed out with only trade exceptions and the MLE available to help their current personnel crisis.

What's the "personnel crisis" you ask? Well, I'm glad you asked. The Pistons are built around a pseudo-Big Three of Reggie Jackson, Blake Griffin, and Andre Drummond. Of those three, only one isn't a liability on the defensive end of the floor, only one can even make threes at an average (or better) clip, and only one can be trusted to play in at least 70 games next season. The skill sets and weaknesses in Drummond & Griffin's respective games overlap quite a bit. Reggie has played at a near All Star level once in his life. And 74% of the Pistons' cap space is tied up with those 3 players.

On top of that, the Pistons are overloaded at the PF position with Ellenson & Leuer needing minutes, and under-loaded at the wing positions with no viable starters. Kennard could grow into a starting role at SG, although he would leave the team with sub-average defenders at 3 or 4 out of 5 positions. If you could combine the strengths and weaknesses of Stanley Johnson and Reggie Bullock, you'd have a pretty nice player. Unfortunately, what the Pistons have instead is a talent deficit at the SF position.

With no 1st rounder and no cap space, how can the Pistons extricate themselves from this cluster? Well, as a result of throwing Boban Marjanovic into the Blake Griffin trade, the Pistons have a $7M trade exception. This means they can work a trade where they can take on an extra $7M of salary that won't count toward the salary cap. With LeBron and Paul George likely opting out this summer, a number of teams will be looking to clear space. 

• Patrick Beverly, PG/SG LAC - $5.03M
  12.2 ppg, 2.9 apg, .403/.400/.824, good D
• Justice Winslow, SF & Bam Adebayo, PF/C MIA - $6.41M combined
  Winslow - 7.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, .424/.380/.635, good D
  Adebayo - 6.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .512/---/.721, good D
• Al-Farouq Aminu, SF/PF POR - $6.96M
  9.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, .395/.369/.738, good D
• Terry Rozier, PG & Gueschon Yabusele SF BOS - $5.71 combined
  Rozier - 11.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, .395/.381/.772, good D
  Yabusele - 2.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, .462/.324/.682, good D
• Brandon Ingram, SF LAL - $5.76M 
  16.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, .470/.390/.681 

The Lakers REALLY like Ingram, and while a lot of their cap space IS tied up, they can alleviate that by renouncing the rights to a guy like Julius Randle (although they'd prefer a trade). The Aminu deal isn't such a long shot though, Patrick Beverly is another name that's been floated around. Boston isn't as cap-tight as the Clippers, Miami or Portland are, but they might be interested in freeing up some space to chase a larger salaried player. Still, Scary Terry Rozier has been invaluable this season with Uncle Drew out, and they'll probably want to get more than just cap space for him. Miami is in a similar situation to the Pistons, so I could see them cutting Winslow and Adebayo loose to free up space, although they'd much rather have Whiteside be someone else's problem.

Another option the Pistons have to give their lineup a boost is the Mid-Level Exception (MLE). The MLE would give them about $8.6M to spend on a player over the cap, although if they are approaching the hard cap ($123M), they lose the MLE and get the Taxpayer MLE instead, which is only worth $5.3M. For PGs who might be available at one of those prices, I like...

• Fred VanVleet TOR, 2018 salary - $1.3M
  8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg & .426/.414/.882 shooting in 20 mpg
  He's on the little side at 6' even, but his defense isn't terrible despite that fact. He's only 24 yrs old, and his per 36min numbers look encouraging.
• Milos Teodosic LAC, 2019 salary - $6.3M (PO)
  9.5 ppg, 4.6 apg & .419/.379/.848 shooting in 25 mpg
  Teodosic is a good bet to opt out of his $6.3M option. He's 31 and probably looking for a long-term deal, maybe 3-4 years. The MLE might be enough to get that done.
• Yogi Ferrell DAL, 2018 salary - $1.3M
  10.2 ppg, 2.5 apg & .426/.373/.796 shooting in 27 mpg
  Ferrell switched to more of the SG role last year, but the year before he played a lot more PG and averaged 3.7 apg. The 3P% is real, and he's only 24.
• Raul Neto UTA, 2018 salary - $1.5M
  4.5 ppg, 1.8 apg & .457/.404/.743 shooting in 12 mpg
  Neto has always impressed me, but he's on a team loaded with PGs. I don't know how good his D is, but I think he'd flourish in a #2 PG role.
• Zach Levine CHI, 2018 salary - $3.2M (RFA)
  16.7 ppg, 3.0 apg & .383/.341/.814 shooting in 27 mpg
  Levine's a restricted free agent, but if Detroit offered $5M/yr for him, I don't think Chicago would match. Levine's been around for a while (4 yrs), but he's only 23.

Here's the same for wings:

• Joe Harris BRK, 2018 salary - $1.5M
  10.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, .491/.419/.827 in 25 mpg
  Harris looks pretty legit as a shooter, not so much as a creator, and he doesn't defense.
• Seth Curry DAL, 2018 salary - $3.03M
  12.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, .481/.425/.850 in 29 mpg
  Steph's little bro basically player starter's minutes last year. He's listed at PG because he's 6'2", but he's really more of a SG. The defense isn't there, but he's got his brother's sweet shot.
• Nick Young GSW, 2018 salary - $5.2M
  7.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, .412/.377/.862 in 17 mpg
  Swaggy P is a good player who's playing for a GREAT team, so his production is down this year. That said, I don't know if $7M - $8M would be enough to get him. 
• Marco Belinelli PHI, 2018 salary - $6.3M
  12.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, .442/.377/.908 in 24 mpg
  Belinelli would've been a nice guy to have for the SVG era. He's just a pure shooter. He doesn't do much else, though. Honestly, I'd bring him off the bench and start Kennard, if we went that route.
• Wayne Ellington MIA, 2018 salary - $6.3M
  11.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, .407/.392/.859 in 26 mpg
  He's a bit undersized at 6'4" and a bit long in the tooth at 30 yrs old, but the guy can shoot. Not a great defender, but he's not a swinging gate either.
• Rodney Hood CLE, 2018 salary - $2.4M
  14.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg, .429/.381/.860 in 27 mpg
  He's been a bit of a controversial figure these playoffs, what with his refusing to play in the 4th quarter of a game and generally playing like garbage when not refusing to play, but prior to that he was a sought-after commodity. 

The point is, we cannot start a reboot this off-season. With no draft pick, no cap space, and to be honest, hardly any desirable trade pieces, the Pistons are in a bit of a pickle. They could try blowing it up, shipping out Drummond, Jackson and Griffin for picks and pennies on the dollar. I just don't think we can pull that off, and not very many GMs would jump at the chance to take a rototiller to the roster. Sam Hinkie's available, I heard.