Wednesday, February 1, 2017

3 Trades to Fix the Pistons

What happened to that team we had last year? Stan Van Gundy was pushing the youth movement, the chains were off Andre Drummond (the "chains" being shackled to Greg Monroe and Josh Smith) and he had his first All Star appearance (nearly by popular vote), Reggie Jackson was in his first full year as starting PG and was 10th in the AS Backcourt voting. Marcus Morris was having a career resurgence, and KCP and Tobias Harris looked like solid pieces going forward. Stanley Johnson also had the appearance of the SF of the future, if he could cut down on the mental mistakes and tweak his shot.

So far this season, the good feeling is gone. Reggie Jackson came back from injury as Bad Kobe, pounding the air out of the ball and jacking up a ton of ill-advised shots. Marcus Morris is another black hole, and has regressed as a 3pt shooter and as an individual defender. Andre Drummond remains a mediocre team defender, and while his FT shooting has improved incrementally, almost every other area of his game is worse and the Pistons score at a better rate with him on the bench. Stanley Johnson has seen a drastic reduction in his minutes, due to his inability to produce anything on the court much of the time.

This team is ill. Not good ill. Bad ill.

To be honest, I think the team was built on the false premise that Andre Drummond can be the foundation of a contending team, and that Reggie Jackson can be the starting PG on a contending team. Once I thought that at least part 1 of that equation was true and part 2 was possible, even probable. No longer. There are two ways out of this mess. Either trade one or both of them away (I think Drummond at least is still salvageable, he just shouldn't be the focal point), or ride out on the wave of mediocrity for the next 4 years. Obviously the 2nd option is a nightmare, so I'm going to present 3 different trade scenarios that offer a ray of hope.

Trade Scenario #1
Detroit-Lakers-Philly 3-team trade
Detroit gets: D'Angelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor, Timofey Mozgov, Gerald Henderson, and LA's 2019 1st round pick
LA gets: Andre Drummond and Nerlens Noel.
Philly gets: Reggie Jackson, Aron Baynes, and Nick Young.

The Pistons get the biggest haul, as they should shipping out the most talent. Adding in the pick might be a bit much, but they really are helping the Lakers out here. They NEED to get rid of D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers already are paying Clarkson like their PG of the future, and Russell alienated the locker room last year by accidentally publicly outing Nick Young's infidelity. The Lakers also signed Mozgov to a RIDICULOUS deal last summer at $16M/yr. This trade allows LA to shed that deal and add a franchise center that they've desperately been looking for. They also get Noel, a pretty good backup and a guy you could conceivably pair with Drummond to wreak defensive havoc all over the place. Losing Nick Young might hurt a bit, but they've got a better SG coming off the bench right now, and Young is a bit of a headcase. Also, it removes the other piece of that kerfuffle from last year.

Philly needs a PG. They might get one in the draft, but that player will be 3 years away from making a difference, and Embiid looks ready right now. Reggie could bridge the gap. He's also more of a combo-guard than a true PG, which is good for when Ben Simmons gets healthy and starts running the Point Forward position. They also need a decent 2-guard, and so far only Stauskas and Henderson have been filling that role. So they upgrade at PG and at SG, and it only costs them two guys they want to get rid of anyway (Okafor and Noel), and they get a decent backup C in return. The Pistons might need to throw in a pick of some kind to sweeten the deal, but I think Philly would bite.

I really like this deal for the Pistons. D'Angelo Russell looks like he'll be a pretty good player in a few years. He's a good defender at the point, something we haven't had since Chauncey was traded. His shot is coming along and he's learning the game a bit, but he's still on his rookie deal too. Okafor has some of the same flaws as Drummond, but overall I think he's a better defender. He's not as good a rebounder, but he's far better offensively. Mozgov is a decent backup, although he'd be getting paid as a starter (in this scenario, we could either try to trade him at a later date or just play him for a couple of years and then cut our losses). Gerald Henderson would be a decent 3 & D backup for KCP, which we don't currently have. He's shooting the best 3P% of his career, so I'd expect that to come down, but he'd still be an upgrade over Bullock/Hilliard. Henderson also represents $9M coming off the books in 2018. This would allow the Pistons to rebuild without taking a big step back.

Trade Scenario #2
Pistons-Bulls

Detroit gets: Rajon Rondo + 2017 1st rd pick (either Chicago's or Sacramento's)
Chicago gets: Reggie Jackson


This is a straight headache for headache trade. The Bulls need to win now and can't do it with Rondo. Reggie can score, but plays hero ball far too often and can't defend. Rondo isn't a huge "get" for us, but he's a couple mil cheaper and comes off the books 2 years earlier. Chicago owns Sacramento's 1st round pick if it falls between 11-30 (currently they'd be in the 8th slot, if the draft lottery was tonight), so this trade gives Detroit the option of taking the better pick, Sacramento's or Chicago's. This is a pretty good PG draft, btw. Anyway, this is a classic "punt the season" trade right here.

Trade Scenario #3
Pistons-Kings-Bulls
Detroit gets: DeMarcus Cousins, Ben McLemore, Rajon Rondo + option of Chi/Sac 2017 pick (owned by Chicago)
Sacramento gets: Andre Drummond + Detroit's 2017 pick & future 2nd rounder
Chicago gets: Reggie Jackson

This trade reunites Cousins and Rondo, who reportedly got along pretty well last year. Sacramento gets Drummond and some picks, Chicago gets Reggie. Picks are exchanged all around, and really the only team not guaranteed to have a pick this year is Chicago. Ben McLemore was a throw-in to make the salaries work, but he was a highly regarded prospect who might just need a change of scenery and a more stable coaching situation. I think I like this deal the best. It's the most likely to please all parties involved.