Pistons get a steal in Ellenson

I never imagined Henry Ellenson would be available when the Pistons' pick came up, #18 in the first round. I'd seen him projected as early as 4th, and rarely as late as 12th. But this was a weird draft. There were four outright WEIRD picks taken in a row - Maker going #10 to Milwaukee, Sabonis (a lesser version of Ellenson, in my opinion) going to OKC via Orlando at #11, and then Taurean Prince to Atlanta via Utah with the 12th pick. Then, Phoenix, picking for Sacramento (who had traded back from #8 with a superior talent in Marquese Chriss available) took Greek center Georgios Papagiannis with the 13th pick. Yeah, I'd never heard of him either, until a couple of days ago.

Anyway, a couple of decent looking foreign players were then taken about 10 picks earlier than I expected, Valentine and Baldwin also, and that left Henry Ellenson, the #10 guy on Stan Van Gundy's board, for the Pistons to take with the 18th pick. I didn't really look at him prior to the draft because I figured he'd be long gone, so let's take a closer look now.

1st rd, 18th pick - PF Henry Ellenson, Marquette
Physical stats: 19 yrs old, 6'10.5", 242#, 7'2" wingspan, 9'0" reach
College stats: 17.0 ppg, 9.7 rebs, 1.8 asts, 1.5 blks, .446/.288/.749 shooting

Ellenson is big and offensively skilled. He's drawn a lot of Kevin Love comps, but Jalen Rose's Troy Murphy comp may have been the most spot on. His college 3P% is a little low for a prototypical stretch 4, but he hits the midrange jumper at a nice rate, and based on his shooting motion, most experts think he should be able to stretch it out to an NBA 3pt range. He's a smart offensive player, and I think he'll make an immediate impact on the Pistons next year. He also rebounds well, improves our size at the 4, and possibly could run some at the backup 5 spot as well. 

The downside is he's a pretty crappy defender. I mean BAD. He's not very athletic, which usually shows up on defense, and he doesn't know how to use his body to his advantage. This HAS to get better, or he'll never crack a starting rotation. He'll probably never be a shot-blocking threat, but he needs to learn how to push back down low and how to move his feet and flatten out on perimeter switches.

You can really see the good and the bad in Ellenson in his earlier matchup with #1 pick Ben Simmons. He hit some nice shots and rebounded well, but Ellenson couldn't hang with Simmons on the other end. Now Simmons is a top-level talent, but that's closer to what Ellenson would see on a regular basis in the NBA. Simmons is obviously good enough to start now, Ellenson isn't. But with an improved 3P% and some pushback on D, he'll get there. I like the pick.

The next pick the Pistons had was 19th in the 2nd round, 49th overall. There were several players that slipped into the 2nd round - Patrick McCaw, Deyonta Davis,  Demetrius Jackson, and Tyler Ulis - that the Pistons might've gone with if they'd still been around at 49. Kay Felder, a local kid that a lot of people liked, was available when the Pistons came up.

2nd rd, 19th pick (49 overall) - G/F Michael Gbinije, Syracuse
Physical stats: 24 yrs old, 6'7", 205#, 6'7.5" wingspan, 8'5" reach, 37.5 max vert
College stats: 17.5 ppg, 4.1 rebs, 4.3 asts, 2.8 tov, 1.9 stls, .461/.391/.663 shooting

Gbinije is supremely athletic, with superior vertical, agility, and one of the top sprint finishes in the combine. He's 6'7" and can handle the ball, run backup PG, and defend 3 positions. He's pretty old for his draft class at 24 (already older than 5 current Pistons Drummond, Harris, KCP, Hilliard, and Johnson), but I'm not sure that's a bad thing. He also shoots a pretty poor FT% for a guy who knocks down threes at a .391 clip, which is weird. Gbinije transitioned from an off-ball SF to Syracuse's primary ball handler, and was really their main guy. His nickname is "Silent G" (which could REALLY be my nickname, for other reasons), which is pretty cool and gives a clue how to pronounce his last name. He also looks a lot like The Game, which is also pretty cool.

I think a lot of the league is looking at what Golden State has done and saying, "we need passing, length, and defense at every position, and some shooting wouldn't hurt either." Gbinije, if he works out, absolutely fits that mold. He doesn't have Shaun Livingston's crazy wingspan, but he has a better 3pt shot and positional versatility, able to play and guard positions 1-3. I like this pick as well, especially in today's NBA.

Overall I give the Pistons an A for their draft. They didn't succumb to the temptation to trade up, they got a LOT lucky when Ellenson dropped to them, they addressed positional needs AND skill set needs with both picks, and I think they got players who can help them right now, as well as in the future. 

NBA Finals/Draft Preview Edition

This NBA Finals was a disappointment in a lot of ways. First and foremost, the Warriors were my adopted team. I've liked Steph Curry since his Davidson days. Despite being a Michigan fan, I've always (or almost always) liked Draymond Green. Secondly, most of the games were pretty bad. As in, hard to watch to the end. Games 1 & 2 were blowouts for GS. Game 3 was a blowout for Cleveland. Game 4 was tight until the 4th quarter, when GS ran away with it. Game 5 was missing Draymond (more on this) and Cleveland had the lead the whole 2nd half. Game 6 might've been the worst game in the series, Cleveland rarely allowing their lead to fall into the single digits. Game 7 was the only wire to wire game in the series. Thirdly, the officiating was wildly uneven.  Part of the reason Cleveland ran away with game 3 was that the officials swallowed the whistle A LOT. I counted three shots in Golden State's first several possessions that should've been shooting fouls but went uncalled. The Draymond Green suspension was retroactively awarded and HIGHLY controversial. I firmly believe that Green's swipe merited a Tech at best (with no accompanying suspension), that the league primarily called it based on LeBron complaining after the fact & things always look worse in slo-mo. Some of the fouls that caused Curry to foul out of game 6 were ridiculous, especially the last two calls. I don't think the NBA actually "rigged" the games, but they had an interest in extending the series and I think that played into how some of the games were called. It's interesting (and by "interesting" I mean "suspicious") how the way they called the series changed dramatically after the first 2 blowouts by GS, when it looked like Cleveland might get swept in embarrassing fashion.

And fourthly, I hate LeBron. I hate his contrived persona, how he effed over Cleveland so publicly in The Decision, how he arrived in Miami, how he complains (my hatred of the LeBron WHAT FOUL??? face is 2nd only to the one Tim Duncan mercifully retired several years ago), how he was catered to in Cleveland, how he was courted during The Decision, how he came back like NBD, how he AGAIN hand-picked the team (mandating the trade for Kevin Love), killed the coach & picked his replacement... There's a lot there to dislike. There was a fair bit of schadenfreude involved in watching Miami lose to Dallas and San Antonio, and again in watching Cleveland lose last year. I was really looking forward to a year full of "LeBron is a choker" articles. Alas...

I hate to admit it, but LeBron OWNED these finals as completely as it's possible for one player to own a series. He averaged 29.7 ppg, 11.3 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 2.6 steals, 2.3 blocks, and shot .494/.371/.721 from the field (despite prior reports of his jumper deserting him). He played impeccable defense, and the only real flaw in his game was a propensity to turn the ball over because he was passing too much instead of attacking. Yikes.

On the flip, Steph Curry, unanimous MVP of the regular season, was a HUGE disappointment. He shot well below his season averages from the field, and was significantly down in every single category except turnovers. Both LeBron and Curry averaged over 4 turnovers a game, but where LeBron's were largely due to passing too much, Curry's were largely due to being REALLY careless with the ball. We've now seen Curry in back-to-back NBA Finals, and we've yet to see him play like the same guy we see in the regular season. This is usual in the playoffs when buckets are harder to come by. In fact, last year his finals performance probably wasn't as bad as you think you remember. Iggy won the Finals MVP, but Curry probably would've won it if it hadn't been for the turnovers. This year though, Draymond Green was CLEARLY the best player on his team (his line for game 7 - 32pts, 15rebs, 9asts, 2 stls, shot 11-15 FGs, 6-8 3Ps, 4-4 FTs. He'd have gotten a triple-double if Ezeli could've converted an easy alley-oop), even considering the fact that he got himself suspended for game 5 and laid a couple of eggs in games 3 & 6.

This brings up the question - is Curry's MVP counterfeit? He lights it up in the regular season, lays a relative egg in the playoffs and his team loses after being up 3-1. That shouldn't happen to a league MVP, right? Well, yeah, but... what about Kobe's 2008 finals (especially the elimination game)? Curry certainly wasn't as bad as Dirk Nowitzki in 2007, losing in the first round in a #1 vs. #8 upset, during which Nowitzki couldn't buy a three. 2007 Nowitzki is the gold standard for counterfeit MVP campaigns. No, I would say the best comp for Curry's choke-job is Karl Malone in 1997. It's not a perfect comp - Curry was (rightfully) unanimous whereas Jordan was a VERY close 2nd in '97 (and mainly lost due to voter fatigue), Curry's team set the NBA record for wins while Utah finished 1st in the West but still behind Chicago - but look at finals performance vs. regular season. Malone's FG% dropped a full 11% in the Finals vs. his regular season number (Curry's dropped 10%), and his FT% dropped by 15%. In the series clinching game, Malone shot a Drummond-like 7-15 from the FT line. In HIS series clinching game, Curry only managed 17 points on 19 shots.

Again, I actually believe Curry deserved his regular season MVP award. LeBron just wasn't good enough, no one else was, and Curry's season was transcendent. It was arguably the best shooting season of all time. I'd argue that, anyway (no one has shot like that AND led the league in scoring). He also played good defense at the PG position (lead the league in steals), and nearly averaged 7 assists to boot. Even with the benefits of hindsight, this was as solid an MVP campaign as you can get (contrasting with Malone, who was in the conversation but definitely benefited from voter fatigue that negatively affected Jordan). But I think we should start viewing Curry similarly to how we now view Malone - as a really good player (Malone is 2nd all-time in points, 7th in rebounds), but ultimately struggled in the clutch. Curry SHOULD get credit for the 2015 title, but he had a TON of help.

***

Now that the Finals are over, the Draft is next and the question is WHO WILL THE PISTONS DRAFT???

With the 18th pick - and out of the lottery for the first time since 2009 (not counting the pick traded to Charlotte in 2014) - the pickings are slimmer than we're used to seeing. Initially I was hoping that MSU's Denzel Valentine might fall to the Pistons. Then it started to look like he might, as doubts about his relative upside (as one of the older players in the draft), defensive abilities, and health were raised. Then, a report came out that he suffered from a degenerative cartilage issue in both of his knees that could REALLY shorten his career. Normally that would knock him out of contention for the 18th pick, but the draft REALLY thins out right around 18.

Ideally, Furkan Korkmaz, a SG out of Turkey, would slide a couple of spots (currently projected to go around 15th). He's a solid shooting SG who can defend a little and make plays as well. Short of trading up though, it's a longshot he falls to 18th. Wade Baldwin is another guy who'll probably go earlier, but I wouldn't mind taking at 18. Other guys I like but would need to trade up for - Marquese Chriss (PF Washington) and Dragan Bender (PF Croatia). A lot of people like Henry Ellenson (PF Marquette), but he looks like a slow, no D stretch-4 who doesn't shoot the three ALL that well. I'd also say that if a guy like Brandon Ingram drops (say if the Lakers take Chriss instead or something), Boston might be open to trading their pick or something.

Short of trading up or hoping somebody falls, there are four players that I'd be looking at with the 18th pick. In reverse order:

#4 - PF Thon Maker, Athletic Institute (HS) ONTARIO
7'1", 216#, good reach, good athleticism

Wherever he goes, Maker will be a project. He looks REALLY, really raw, and he needs to add about 20-30 lbs of muscle to make it through an NBA season. He's got the physical tools, and the report is that he might be able to shoot a little. He put up KG-like HS numbers, but as a 19-year old, and in Canada instead of Chicago. I think he has a pretty high ceiling, but a low floor in the Hasheem Thabeet neighborhood.

#3 - SG/SF Denzel Valentine, Michigan State
6'6", 210#, good reach, poor athleticism
2016 stats: 19.2 ppg, 7.5 rebs, 7.8 asts, .462/.444/.853 shooting

Valentine would be at the top of this list if it weren't for the knees. His defense is bad, he's one of the least athletic wings in the draft, but I'd take him in a heartbeat if I weren't worried his knees were about to go Brandon Roy. He has one of the best shooting touches in the draft, and he gives you rebounding and passing. He could double as a backup PG in a pinch, since he basically was MSU's starting PG when healthy. But the knee thing is a concern.

#2 - PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga
6'10", 231#, limited reach, average to low athleticism
2016 stats: 17.5 ppg, 11.8 rebs, 1.8 asts, .606/.357/.768 shooting

Sabonis is a smart, effective, but limited player. He looks like he has his dad's head for the game, but not his legendary physical profile (Arvydas Sabonis was 7'3" and reportedly phenomenally athletic until injuries took their toll). He fits with what Stan wants to do, and I think he could be the #3 guy on a good team, best case.

#1 - SG/SF Timothe Luwawu, Mega Leks (INT'L) ABA/KLS 
6'7", 205#, good reach, good athleticism
2016 stats: 14.5 ppg, 4.6 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.7 stls, .402/.358/.697 shooting

The shooting numbers don't blow you away, and that's a concern. But he's developing his 3pt shot, and I think you'll start to see some of these numbers get better as he operates under better coaching. I like the athleticism, which based on the tape is pretty good. He seems to have good bounce and should be able to develop into a stopper. He reminds me of KCP, only better, and with a lot more vertical ability. He looks like he can guard anybody from PG to SF, or should be able to once he gets his feet wet. He actually reminds me a lot of Kawhi Leonard coming out of college. Not that I think he'll be quite that good, but a lot of the raw tools are there.

Some people are huge Maker fans. I'm not, I think he's too big of a risk, but given what else is available, I'm ok with the Pistons taking him as long as none of my top 3 here are available. With the Pistons' needs at backup PG, PF, and 3pt shooting, I don't see a ton of options.